The War in Ukraine

Scott

Scott

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I've been participating in another thread in this sub forum for a while named, namely this one:
C

Thread 'The Ukraine ‘peace deal’ is proving to be a scam'

The Ukraine ‘peace deal’ is proving a scam​

The White House’s breathless – some might say witless – optimism at the beginning of the talks has evaporated.
Trump himself seems to be waking up to the realisation that the Kremlin is playing him for a fool.


Two rounds of peace talks in, and the basic rhythms of Putin’s unique negotiating style are becoming clear: Lie. Bomb. Lie. Bomb.

Just a day after a new supposed breakthrough this week in Riyadh on a moratorium on attacks in the Black Sea, Putin’s deadly drones once again swarmed into Kharkiv destroying...
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Thing is, the conversation there has moved away from the Ukraine peace deal and is now just focused on the war in Ukraine in general. I looked and didn't find a thread whose. name focuses on this more general topic and so I thought I'd start one and see how it goes, also moving over conversations in the aforementioned thread here as well. Some articles on the War in Ukraine that I found to be pivotal to my own understanding of the conflict are below:
off-guardian.org

Timeline: Euromaidan, the original “Ukraine Crisis”

As Russia actually do launch an invasion or “special operation” in Ukraine, we thought now was a good time to recap on how we got here. The historical, political and ethnic divisions in…
off-guardian.org off-guardian.org

scheerpost.com

Siding With Ukraine’s Far-Right, US Sabotaged Zelensky’s Peace Mandate

In 2019, Zelensky was elected on an overwhelming mandate to make peace with Russia. As Stephen F. Cohen warned that year, the US chose to side with Ukraine’s far-right and fuel war.
scheerpost.com scheerpost.com

scheerpost.com

Former NATO Military Analyst Blows the Whistle on West’s Ukraine Invasion Narrative

Jacques Baud, a NATO expert, denounces western coverage of the Ukraine invasion.
scheerpost.com scheerpost.com

consortiumnews.com

Jeffrey Sachs: The Geopolitics of Peace

The author explains manipulative U.S. post-war foreign policy to European MPs, explodes myths about Ukraine and urges an independent European foreign policy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjcMoDFU1xg&ab_channel=MichaelvonderSchulenburg This is an edited transcript of Professor Jeffrey Sachs’
consortiumnews.com consortiumnews.com
 
Hawkeye10 said:
Scott said:
Nuclear deuces, which I suspect is why Putin has been quite polite with the U.S. despite them only offering peace plans that are currently unworkable. As to this bit about Russia demanding "our" capitulation, surely you don't include yourself in the globalist cabal that started this travesty of a war? The losers in this war are the Ukrainian soldiers for the most part. Aside from the thousands dead, there are also the thousands wounded, and for what? The promise of joining NATO "soon"? Zelensky's been saying that line for 10 years now and I think at this point he's finally realized that it was all a sham.
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The loser of this war is the West, and with it the American Empire....this is the end and it comes after a series of disastrous wars.

Although it is possible that we will go to war with Iran, and that will be the end....if not then the American Empire dies in Ukraine.

Trump is desperately trying to run from this, and so are you, pretending STILL that this war is between Russia and Ukraine even though I and the Russians have explained to you over and over that it is not.
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I agree with you that the war isn't between Russia and Ukraine. I'm just pointing out that one can be a citizen of a given country and yet consider it a win, rather than a capitulation, if one's country bails from a war it should never have entered into to begin with. I imagine you could agree that many Americans who opposed the Vietnam war considered it to be a victory, rather than a capitulation, when the U.S. government decided to remove American troops from Vietnam. While few if any American troops are in Ukraine, permanently removing financial support from Ukraine could also be considered to be a win for those Americans who'd like their country to leave the Ukraine conflict.
 
Scott said:
I agree with you that the war isn't between Russia and Ukraine. I'm just pointing out that one can be a citizen of a given country and yet consider it a win, rather than a capitulation, if one's country bails from a war it should never have entered into to begin with. I imagine you could agree that many Americans who opposed the Vietnam war considered it to be a victory, rather than a capitulation, when the U.S. government decided to remove American troops from Vietnam. While few if any American troops are in Ukraine, permanently removing financial support from Ukraine could also be considered to be a win for those Americans who'd like their country to leave the Ukraine conflict.
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Hmmmm.
 

"It does not appear that Trump has listened to what the Russians have been saying (paraphrase)"...a point I have now heard many make om the last day or so....and something I predicted almost two months ago" ​

​

Chas Freeman: Diplomacy at an Impasse, Trump Escalates Actions Against Russia and Iran​

 
Hawkeye10 said:

"It does not appear that Trump has listened to what the Russians have been saying (paraphrase)"...a point I have now heard many make om the last day or so....and something I predicted almost two months ago" ​

​

Chas Freeman: Diplomacy at an Impasse, Trump Escalates Actions Against Russia and Iran​

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I suspect Trump may have listened, but thought that they would take his crappy deal, "as a gesture of goodwill" as I believe Mark Rubio said. Russia's learned from the Minsk agreements and perhaps even this limited energy ceasefire they agreed to that "gestures of goodwill" only work for the Ukrainians, who ignore the agreements without consequence while they simultaneously rebuild their forces.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
Its not just that we America and Europe lost this war, but as well that we lost it after long demanding it, that we lost after investing so much into it, and that we have been humiliated.

This is what the end of an empire looks like.
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The warmonger elites that provoked Russia into it are the ones who lost. Those like American Professor John Mearsheimer who predicted this would happen 10 years ago if the U.S. continued on this path, or American Professor Jeffrey Sachs who also predicted it (albeit with less lead time) are the American winners here, because they were proven to be right about what would happen and I believe their solutions will ultimately be shown to be right as well.

Good articles on their predictions:
www.businesstoday.in

'Ukraine going to be wrecked': After Zelenskyy-Trump spat, John Mearsheimer's 2015 prediction goes viral

In this video, Mearsheimer can be heard making some startling predictions about Ukraine riding high on the backing of the US and other Western powers.
www.businesstoday.in www.businesstoday.in

consortiumnews.com

Jeffrey Sachs: The Geopolitics of Peace

The author explains manipulative U.S. post-war foreign policy to European MPs, explodes myths about Ukraine and urges an independent European foreign policy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VjcMoDFU1xg&ab_channel=MichaelvonderSchulenburg This is an edited transcript of Professor Jeffrey Sachs’
consortiumnews.com consortiumnews.com
 
Walt said:
Scott said:
Walt said:
Robots that can remove mines are being developed quickly. If they start working, Russia will be defeated.
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They'd have to be some pretty miraculous robots. Seriously, where did you get this idea of these possible super robots in Ukraine's future?
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We are seeing autonomous flying robots attacking tanks with no input from humans. We are seeing decades of robot development happen in months. It is very possible that robots can clear mines.
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Oh, of that I have no doubt- in fact, I -think- I've seen some robots do that already. My contention isn't that robots can't be used to clear mines, but that robot clearing mines will somehow defeat Russia. Robots can be destroyed just like sappers can be killed.
 
Walt said:
Scott said:
If you cut out the "Ukrainian or", I think you'd be on the nose. For a while now, there is only one scenario where I can picture Russia not achieving all of its main objectives in Ukraine- Russia and the U.S. engaging in nuclear armageddon. At which point, I think we'll all have more important things to think about then who "won" in Ukraine. In no scenario do I see Ukraine winning. But perhaps they'll be able to sell it as a win somehow in the future, just like Dutch Uncle says that the U.S. won "militarily" in Vietnam. Whatever floats your boat.
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I assumed Russia would win the war in two weeks. Then I saw poorly trained troops wearing tin helmets that dented when you dropped them. Russia's failure to win has meant they might not win in the long run.
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I think that Russia's failure to win up until now is because Ukraine was heavily financed by NATO countries to the tunes of billions of dollars. While it has certainly made it more difficult for Russia to win, in the end I can't see Ukraine winning because of the strategic importance to Russia of not losing. It's akin to the Cuban Missile Crisis, only this time on the Russian side. There was no way that the U.S. was going to let Cuba keep those nukes, which is why it was so scary- nuclear armageddon is something that any reasonable person should be fearful of. Similarly, there is no way that Russia will allow a hostile country that was killing thousands of ethnic and Russian speakers before Russia's military operation even began to continue to be a threat on its western flank.
 
Scott said:
My contention isn't that robots can't be used to clear mines
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Right now, automated drones are better at finding people than remote controlled drones. Automated drones are many times better at finding hidden people. Robots are borderline better at finding mines right now... But you add into it that robots can find mines the easy way, setting them off, and it is not that bad.

Seriously, sometime within the next two years, robots will be removing mines.

Scott said:
Robots can be destroyed just like sappers can be killed.
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Using a $20k shell to kill a highly trained, unreplaceable sapper makes sense. Using a $20k shell to destroy a $5k, mass produced robot does not make as much sense.
 
Scott said:
It's akin to the Cuban Missile Crisis, only this time on the Russian side.
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There was a decision made that we could not tolerate a communist Cuba. We sent forces into Cuba, and did everything possible to kill Castro.

Is there a communist Cuba anymore? If so, that does not bode well for Putin's not tolerating a liberal democracy in Ukraine.
 
Walt said:
Scott said:
My contention isn't that robots can't be used to clear mines
Click to expand...
Right now, automated drones are better at finding people than remote controlled drones. Automated drones are many times better at finding hidden people. Robots are borderline better at finding mines right now... But you add into it that robots can find mines the easy way, setting them off, and it is not that bad.

Seriously, sometime within the next two years, robots will be removing mines.
Click to expand...

As I've said previously, I wouldn't be surprised if they're already doing a bit of it. My issue was never that robots couldn't do it.

Walt said:
Scott said:
Robots can be destroyed just like sappers can be killed.
Click to expand...
Using a $20k shell to kill a highly trained, unreplaceable sapper makes sense. Using a $20k shell to destroy a $5k, mass produced robot does not make as much sense.
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And what of the massive amount of cheap drones being used in the Ukraine war? They can even take out tanks:
nypost.com

Ukraine pumping out kamikaze drones for as little as $300 – and they can destroy tanks: ‘This is modern warfare’

The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ reliance on cheaper, more compact drones has altered the look of warfare for good, operators and experts tell The Post.
nypost.com nypost.com

Don't let the title of the article fool you, Russia has them too, as is mentioned in the article itself.
 
Scott said:
According to who?
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A world superpower is supposed to be able to project overwhelming power anywhere in the world. Russia cannot even project overwhelming power in their own country.

Imagine Canada invaded Maine. If it took 7 months to drive them out, and they even then controlled a bit of Maine, I would question if we were still a world superpower.
 
Scott said:
My issue was never that robots couldn't do it.
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The technology is moving ahead at an insane rate. Decades of development is happening in weeks. It will hit a tipping point, and all of a sudden happen.

Which is why Russia would have been far better off if they could have won this war immediately. Once they made it a lengthy years long war, they gave the Ukrainians years to work out how to defeat them.

Scott said:
And what of the massive amount of cheap drones being used in the Ukraine war? They can even take out tanks:
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If this becomes a battle of drones against drones, the Ukraine will win. Russia is begging for drones from Iran. Ukraine has a large domestic drone industry, and gets support from countries like Germany.

Who do you think has the better tech industry: Germany or Iran?

I will just add, a world superpower does not have to beg for armaments from the likes of North Korea and Iran.
 
Walt said:
Scott said:
It's akin to the Cuban Missile Crisis, only this time on the Russian side.
Click to expand...
There was a decision made that we could not tolerate a communist Cuba. We sent forces into Cuba, and did everything possible to kill Castro.

Is there a communist Cuba anymore? If so, that does not bode well for Putin's not tolerating a liberal democracy in Ukraine.
Click to expand...

No, the U.S. did -not- do everything possible to kill Castro. There was a brief point in time where they tried to overthrow Castro's government in a fairly over way- it's called the bay of pigs invasion. A wikipedia article on the event:
en.wikipedia.org

Bay of Pigs Invasion - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Fortunately, JFK nixed escalating that conflict and so the invasion was a failure. Even so, I strongly suspect that this event is what triggered Russia giving Cuba nukes a year later, leading to the Cuban Missile Crisis that I mentioned above. Again, the U.S. and the rest of the world may have been saved that JFK was still at the helm and he secretly made a deal with Russia that if they removed their nukes from Cuba, the U.S. would remove its nukes from Turkey.

After that happened, there were certainly a fair amount of assassination attempts- the precise number seems to be pretty hard to pin down from what I've read on Wikipedia:
**
The United States' Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) made numerous unsuccessful attempts to assassinate Cuban leader Fidel Castro. There were also attempts by Cuban exiles, sometimes in cooperation with the CIA. The 1975 Church Committee claimed eight proven CIA assassination attempts between 1960 and 1965. In 1976, President Gerald Ford issued an Executive Order banning political assassinations. In 2006, Fabián Escalante, former chief of Cuba's intelligence, stated that there had been 634 assassination schemes or attempts. The last known plot to assassinate Castro was by Cuban exiles in 2000.
**
Source:
en.wikipedia.org

CIA assassination attempts on Fidel Castro - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

The bottom line, though, was that these assassination attempts were clandestine affairs- I imagine that the reason is that the U.S. had some respect for Russia's interests and didn't want to be -too- obvious that they wanted to kill the leader of one of their allies.

Anyway, bottom line, I think it's fairly clear that what the U.S. really didn't want was a hostile neighbour armed with nukes. The U.S. has armed NATO nations with nukes, and it's no secret that Zelensky wanted nukes before Russia's military operation began and has said he's wanted them during it as well. I know that Putin took Zelensky quite seriously when he said he wanted them prior to Russia's military operation and I see no reason why Putin would have stopped taking him seriously now.
 
Walt said:
The technology is moving ahead at an insane rate. Decades of development is happening in weeks. It will hit a tipping point, and all of a sudden happen.

Which is why Russia would have been far better off if they could have won this war immediately. Once they made it a lengthy years long war, they gave the Ukrainians years to work out how to defeat them.


If this becomes a battle of drones against drones, the Ukraine will win. Russia is begging for drones from Iran. Ukraine has a large domestic drone industry, and gets support from countries like Germany.

Who do you think has the better tech industry: Germany or Iran?

I will just add, a world superpower does not have to beg for armaments from the likes of North Korea and Iran.
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The Russians wanted a deal, which they almost got, not a war, not Ukraine.....they had only a fraction of the military needed to take Ukraine.....once they realized that the Imperial Empire still refuses to negotiate so it is war they doubled the size of their Army and prepared for a long war.

Almost Never Right WALT strikes again.
 
Scott said:
Anyway, bottom line, I think it's fairly clear that what the U.S. really didn't want was a hostile neighbour armed with nukes.
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The US did not want a communist neighbor at all, whether nuclear armed or not, but we live with it. And we live with Cuba having defense treaties with the USSR. It is time that Russia has to learn to live with Ukraine joining NATO, and even scarier for them, joining the EU.
 
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