The Senate majority will come down to North Carolina and Louisiana. If you assume that Republicans have takeovers in South Dakota, West Virginia and Montana strongly in hand (and, at the moment, they do) and that Arkansas and Alaska are going to be very tough holds for Democrats based on the underlying demographics of the two states, then the GOP stands at a five-seat pickup.
Republicans need six to retake the Senate majority, which means that they must find a way to unseat Mary Landrieu (La.), Kay Hagan (N.C.) or both.
Try this one for a delicious possibility: Republicans gain five seats on election night while no one gets 50 percent in the open primary in Louisiana on that same night.
That would mean the top two vote-getters — Landrieu and probably Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) would advance to a runoff Dec. 6.
That means there would be a month-long race that would decide control of the Senate for the next two years.
Yes, that could happen.
Republicans will hold the House. Democrats insist that no one knows what the electoral landscape will look like in a year’s time — and they’re right.
But the past and the present argue against their picking up the 17 seats they need to win back the House majority.
First, the past: In midterm elections during a president’s second term — some call it the “six-year itch” election — since 1912, the party that holds the White House has lost an average of 29 seats in the House.
Democrats probably won’t lose anywhere near that many, but it would take a historic election for them to make the sort of gains they need to win the House.
Now, the present: The chamber’s 435 seats have been redistricted within an inch of their partisan lives, making it very difficult — even in a wave election — for them to switch parties. (Just 77 of the 435 members who won in 2012 did so with less than 55 percent of the vote.)
A narrow playing field works against Democrats.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hey-its-an-election-year-heres-what-2014-will-bring/2013/12/29/cfd99ab2-7095-11e3-8def-a33011492df2_story.html
Republicans need six to retake the Senate majority, which means that they must find a way to unseat Mary Landrieu (La.), Kay Hagan (N.C.) or both.
Try this one for a delicious possibility: Republicans gain five seats on election night while no one gets 50 percent in the open primary in Louisiana on that same night.
That would mean the top two vote-getters — Landrieu and probably Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) would advance to a runoff Dec. 6.
That means there would be a month-long race that would decide control of the Senate for the next two years.
Yes, that could happen.
Republicans will hold the House. Democrats insist that no one knows what the electoral landscape will look like in a year’s time — and they’re right.
But the past and the present argue against their picking up the 17 seats they need to win back the House majority.
First, the past: In midterm elections during a president’s second term — some call it the “six-year itch” election — since 1912, the party that holds the White House has lost an average of 29 seats in the House.
Democrats probably won’t lose anywhere near that many, but it would take a historic election for them to make the sort of gains they need to win the House.
Now, the present: The chamber’s 435 seats have been redistricted within an inch of their partisan lives, making it very difficult — even in a wave election — for them to switch parties. (Just 77 of the 435 members who won in 2012 did so with less than 55 percent of the vote.)
A narrow playing field works against Democrats.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hey-its-an-election-year-heres-what-2014-will-bring/2013/12/29/cfd99ab2-7095-11e3-8def-a33011492df2_story.html
