70 Seat Tsunami

DamnYankee

Loyal to the end
Why 2010 Won't Be Like 1994. (It'll Be Bigger.)

Submitted by Patrick Ruffini on Wed, 04/28/2010 - 01:21
I might be setting myself for a healthy serving of crow on November 3rd, but I get a distinct feeling that the GOP may be headed toward to a seat gain in the House of epic proportions -- somewhere over 50 seats and well above the historical high point for recent wave elections (the 50-55 seats we experienced in elections like 1946 and 1994).

All in all, I don't think a 70 seat gain is out of the question.
http://www.thenextright.com/patrick-ruffini/why-2010-wont-be-like-1994-itll-be-bigger
 
70 seats ain't gonna happen. The Republican party reached their poll peak a month back. It will probably be around 20-30. That's pretty much the consensus.
 
A 70-seat tsunami?
By: Michael Barone
Senior Political Analyst
04/28/10 11:31 AM EDT
Former House Speaker Marco Rubio

That’s the projection of Republican new media maven Patrick Ruffini. Lest you write off his projection that a 70-seat Republican gain (which would leave Republicans with a 248-187 majority, larger than any they have won since 1928) keep in mind that Ruffini was one of the very first to predict that Marco Rubio could become the leader in the Florida Senate race and that Scott Brown had a very real chance to win in Massachusetts.

Read more at the Washington Examiner: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/o...A-70-seat-tsunami-92316694.html#ixzz0mrxYEkW9
 
The House minority leader, speaking on National Public Radio’s “Morning Edition” on Friday, said that the “playing field” for the 2010 elections is wider than “anything we’ve seen around here during my 20 years.”

“At least 100 seats,” Boehner told NPR’s Steve Inskeep, when asked how many House districts are up for grabs. “You think there are 100 seats in the United States that could change hands?” Inskeep asked.

“I do,” Boehner responded.

“Well typically, you are correct there would be some limited number of seats in play,” Boehner said. “Let me remind you that Scott Brown won the Ted Kennedy Senate seat in Massachusetts. If Scott Brown can win in Massachusetts, there isn’t a seat in America that Republicans can’t win.”

He’s not the first person to float this possibility. Sean Trende of RCP made the case a few weeks ago that Democrats are sailing into an absolutely perfect political storm this year. Not since 1938, when 79 seats flipped, have the stars aligned this ideally; a triple-digit pick-up is on the radar screen, albeit at the far edge. My only question: Why on earth is Boehner, of all people, raising this idea? If a GOP tsunami hits and, say, 55 seats switch hands, we all know that the second story on the front page the next day will now be “GOP’S TAKE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.”

http://hotair.com/archives/2010/04/30/boehner-how-does-gaining-100-seats-in-november-sound/
 
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This race is difficult to predict because of the lack of legitimate polls comparing support between the two parties in congressional elections. In the UK, you just get a poll, assume uniform national swing, and you can get a pretty good estimate of the seats each party is expected to get. In the US no one does this for some reason.
 
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