Accuracy of Polls

[Port Tack]

January 9, 2024
Trump leads comfortably in Vermont Republican Primary Poll
In the Vermont Republican Primary, former President Donald Trump holds a wide lead with 47% of the vote followed distantly by former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley with 19%.

So, in January the polls said Trump was ahead in Vermont by 28 points.

February 22, 2024
Trump Running Away With Primary Race in Vermont
Less than two weeks away from the primary on Super Tuesday, former President Donald Trump holds a 30 percentage point lead over former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in Vermont.

So, in February a couple weeks away from Super Tuesday this poll has Trump ahead of Haley by 30 points in Vermont.

Nikki Haley gets a surprise Super Tuesday win, beating Trump in Vermont
Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley has narrowly won the Republican primary in Vermont, her first victory out of 15 states on Super Tuesday.

What happened? So just 2 weeks prior to the election with polls saying Trump was going to win by 30% and he lost? The Polls were off by 30%?

I'm sure the right will say Vermont has an open Primary and it's because a bunch of Democrats voted in it but that doesn't explain why Polls had Trump 30 pts ahead there prior to that vote. Why didn't polls have a much closer race knowing that primary was open?

When this same phenomenon happens in the general election I'm sure the right will be screaming somebody cheated but that won't be the case. Trump better be polling about 30 pts ahead of Biden come November or he doesn't stand a chance.

 

[Yakuda]

So, in January the polls said Trump was ahead in Vermont by 28 points.



So, in February a couple weeks away from Super Tuesday this poll has Trump ahead of Haley by 30 points in Vermont.




What happened? So just 2 weeks prior to the election with polls saying Trump was going to win by 30% and he lost? The Polls were off by 30%?

I'm sure the right will say Vermont has an open Primary and it's because a bunch of Democrats voted in it but that doesn't explain why Polls had Trump 30 pts ahead there prior to that vote. Why didn't polls have a much closer race knowing that primary was open?

When this same phenomenon happens in the general election I'm sure the right will be screaming somebody cheated but that won't be the case. Trump better be polling about 30 pts ahead of Biden come November or he doesn't stand a chance.

Nothing happened it's polling. Anyone who builds an argument on polls is grossly ignorant.

 

[Althea]

I put absolutely no value in most polling, unless it is very close to the election. Further, it cannot be an internet poll, and it must have an enormous sample size.

If so, then I read the sample questions.

It is rare to find one that doesn't set out to achieve a specific result

 

[Nordberg]

Polls are meaningless at this time.

 

[T. A. Gardner]

So, in January the polls said Trump was ahead in Vermont by 28 points.



So, in February a couple weeks away from Super Tuesday this poll has Trump ahead of Haley by 30 points in Vermont.




What happened? So just 2 weeks prior to the election with polls saying Trump was going to win by 30% and he lost? The Polls were off by 30%?

I'm sure the right will say Vermont has an open Primary and it's because a bunch of Democrats voted in it but that doesn't explain why Polls had Trump 30 pts ahead there prior to that vote. Why didn't polls have a much closer race knowing that primary was open?

When this same phenomenon happens in the general election I'm sure the right will be screaming somebody cheated but that won't be the case. Trump better be polling about 30 pts ahead of Biden come November or he doesn't stand a chance.

Vermont allows anyone to vote in any primary they choose. Haley's win was largely accomplished by crossover voters--eg., Democrats that voted in the Republican primary.

The history of Vermont’s open primary and a lesson in 'crossover'
https://www.vermontpublic.org/local...rmonts-open-primary-and-a-lesson-in-crossover

Haley capitalized on that anti-Trump sentiment — and the state’s open primary system — to notch the win. Vermonters cannot formally register with a political party and are free to take Republican or Democratic presidential primary ballots. Many Democrats and independents in the state appeared to pull Republican ballots on Tuesday to vote against Trump — and for Haley.

It’s a tactic her highest-profile supporter in Vermont, Republican Gov. Phil Scott, urged Trump opponents to employ. When Haley touched down in South Burlington for a rare presidential campaign appearance in the state Sunday, Scott urged Republicans, Democrats and independents alike to vote for her.

“If you want to help stop Donald Trump, please, please show up on Tuesday, take a Republican ballot and vote for Nikki Haley,” the governor said.
https://vtdigger.org/2024/03/05/joe-biden-wins-vermonts-democratic-presidential-primary/

How Nikki Haley won Vermont
More Vermonters cast ballots in the state’s Republican presidential primary than in any year since 2000. Independents and Democrats likely made her victory possible.
https://vtdigger.org/2024/03/06/how-nikki-haley-won-vermont/

So, your analysis is for shit. The polling asked people by party affiliation who they wanted as president, not who they would choose to vote for in Vermont's open primary system. Thus, there was a large disconnect because of Vermont's open primary system where many Democrats chose to vote in the Republican primary against Trump.

 

[Port Tack]

Vermont allows anyone to vote in any primary they choose. Haley's win was largely accomplished by crossover voters--eg., Democrats that voted in the Republican primary.

The history of Vermont’s open primary and a lesson in 'crossover'
https://www.vermontpublic.org/local...rmonts-open-primary-and-a-lesson-in-crossover

Haley capitalized on that anti-Trump sentiment — and the state’s open primary system — to notch the win. Vermonters cannot formally register with a political party and are free to take Republican or Democratic presidential primary ballots. Many Democrats and independents in the state appeared to pull Republican ballots on Tuesday to vote against Trump — and for Haley.

It’s a tactic her highest-profile supporter in Vermont, Republican Gov. Phil Scott, urged Trump opponents to employ. When Haley touched down in South Burlington for a rare presidential campaign appearance in the state Sunday, Scott urged Republicans, Democrats and independents alike to vote for her.

“If you want to help stop Donald Trump, please, please show up on Tuesday, take a Republican ballot and vote for Nikki Haley,” the governor said.
https://vtdigger.org/2024/03/05/joe-biden-wins-vermonts-democratic-presidential-primary/

How Nikki Haley won Vermont
More Vermonters cast ballots in the state’s Republican presidential primary than in any year since 2000. Independents and Democrats likely made her victory possible.
https://vtdigger.org/2024/03/06/how-nikki-haley-won-vermont/

So, your analysis is for shit. The polling asked people by party affiliation who they wanted as president, not who they would choose to vote for in Vermont's open primary system. Thus, there was a large disconnect because of Vermont's open primary system where many Democrats chose to vote in the Republican primary against Trump.

I knew assholes like you would come up with this bullshit. What the fuck does an open primary have to do with polls conducted prior to that primary? If it was supposed to be close because they have an open primary why didn't those polls indicate that?

 

[Port Tack]

I put absolutely no value in most polling, unless it is very close to the election. Further, it cannot be an internet poll, and it must have an enormous sample size.

If so, then I read the sample questions.

It is rare to find one that doesn't set out to achieve a specific result

I agree, I'm just sick of the right claiming Trump is leading because that is what the polls say. Or that Biden has low approval ratings which may be true, but half those who give him low approval ratings when asked "so you gonna vote for Trump?" they say not on your life!

 

[cawacko]

I knew assholes like you would come up with this bullshit. What the fuck does an open primary have to do with polls conducted prior to that primary? If it was supposed to be close because they have an open primary why didn't those polls indicate that?

You didn't offer links to the three headlines in the OP. Were those numbers among registered Republicans only? If yes, that's your difference considering the state has an open primary. (Stating that has nothing to do with supporting, or not supporting, Trump. It's simply understanding the methodology used.)

 

[cawacko]

I agree, I'm just sick of the right claiming Trump is leading because that is what the polls say. Or that Biden has low approval ratings which may be true, but half those who give him low approval ratings when asked "so you gonna vote for Trump?" they say not on your life!

It is what the polls say. Now anyone who has followed politics knows you have to take polls months away from an election with a large grain of salt. The 'poll' that matters most in electoral politics is the one after all votes are tabulated. But polls are a snapshot in time and it sounds like you have the same reaction many others do when don't say what you want to hear, you don't like it.

 

[Concart]

Right now general election polls are meaningless. I also believe pollsters are making a fundamental error in determining who will vote. Polls have traditionally assessed likely voters based largely on enthusiasm for the candidate This election is unique. It is democracy vs. dictatorship. I believe that democracy is INCREDIBLY popular. Dictatorship? Not so much.

 

[T. A. Gardner]

I knew assholes like you would come up with this bullshit. What the fuck does an open primary have to do with polls conducted prior to that primary? If it was supposed to be close because they have an open primary why didn't those polls indicate that?

Well, my "bullshit" is backed by facts and multiple sources. Your bullshit is backed by more bullshit. Your self-portrait:

As for the polls...

Polling asks specific questions and gets specific answers. Not one poll in Vermont asked people if they'd crossover vote for Hailey to stop Trump. Instead, they asked, who do you support for President? Wrong question, get a wrong answer.

 

[Into the Night]

So, in January the polls said Trump was ahead in Vermont by 28 points.



So, in February a couple weeks away from Super Tuesday this poll has Trump ahead of Haley by 30 points in Vermont.




What happened? So just 2 weeks prior to the election with polls saying Trump was going to win by 30% and he lost? The Polls were off by 30%?

I'm sure the right will say Vermont has an open Primary and it's because a bunch of Democrats voted in it but that doesn't explain why Polls had Trump 30 pts ahead there prior to that vote. Why didn't polls have a much closer race knowing that primary was open?

When this same phenomenon happens in the general election I'm sure the right will be screaming somebody cheated but that won't be the case. Trump better be polling about 30 pts ahead of Biden come November or he doesn't stand a chance.

News polls are random numbers. They don't mean a damn thing.

 

[Into the Night]

I knew assholes like you would come up with this bullshit. What the fuck does an open primary have to do with polls conducted prior to that primary? If it was supposed to be close because they have an open primary why didn't those polls indicate that?

News polls are random numbers. They don't indicate anything.

 

[Into the Night]

I agree, I'm just sick of the right claiming Trump is leading because that is what the polls say. Or that Biden has low approval ratings which may be true, but half those who give him low approval ratings when asked "so you gonna vote for Trump?" they say not on your life!

No, you just have a bad case of TDS. You belong to the Church of Hate.