Can Obama get over the hump in November?

leaningright

Moderate Republican
Staff member
I certainly think Obama will be the democratic nominee. In a time when he should blow out McCain, will he? Here is an interesting article. I'll post a few paragraphs from near the end of it but the whole thing is interesting to me as a rural dwelling American.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...y_by_rhodes_cook/obama_and_small_town_america

"One can only speculate as to why small-town Democrats in these states have so completely turned their backs on him. It could be pronounced racial attitudes; cultural differences with the liberal Obama; deep sentiment for the Clintons; horror at the sight of his poor bowling skills. Whatever it is, rural resistance to Obama seems particularly strong in these states that are so critically important to the Democrats come November.

Yet Obama's problems are not new for the modern Democratic Party. Rarely in recent years has it nominated a candidate with much small-town appeal. Since the current primary-dominated era of presidential politics began almost 40 years ago, the Democrats have selected only one candidate capable of winning a majority of the nation's 3,100 or so counties -- Jimmy Carter in 1976. And only one other Democratic nominee since then has even come close to carrying a majority of counties, Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996.

Their common denominators: Both hailed from small towns in the South with the simplest of names, Plains and Hope; both served as governors of their states before running for president. And not coincidentally, they were the only two Democrats to have won the White House since 1968. Winning the cities and many of the suburbs can get Democrats close to the Oval Office. But only the candidates who can show appeal in rural America have had the key to open the door."
 
I do see this rural thing happening, and Obama is having an almost impossible time connecting with certain voters.

That said, I think an Obama/McCain race could be pretty unprecedented for both sides. McCain certainly has had a hard time gaining traction with a few groups that are traditional GOP voters, and we know there are Republicans who, after 8 years of Bush, are ready to roll the dice with someone like Obama.

I think the map could be completely re-drawn this fall. Obama could lose PA but win VA & NC. McCain has actually led in some NY polls, and word is that he might make a play for CA. Analysts have said for the past few years that TX could morph into a purple state in the near future, which seems crazy.

I don't think we're going to see those maps anymore where the south is red & the northeast is blue. Much more is up for grabs w/ these 2 candidates.
 
I hope you are right Lorax. The map of the last two elections is very disturbing to me as it shows a lack of common ground among the people. Somewhere along the way we have to find a way to get folks together.
 
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