Speculation boosts oil prices
Recent investor interest in commodities is an issue of intense debate. Though some analysts say market fundamentals are playing a large role in the doubling of oil prices in a one-year span - driven by strong global demand and a shrinking supply - others believe that commodities investors have boosted the price of crude with speculative trading, treating oil as a hedge against inflation due to the weakened dollar.
"We have what I think is a speculative bubble, and the laws of bubbles is that all bubbles burst," said Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D. "The problem is, this bubble is causing a dramatic amount of damage to our economy and to individuals."
Nearly all of the witnesses agreed that speculation has artificially boosted the price of oil.
"Excessive speculation on energy trading facilities is the fuel that is driving this runaway train in crude oil prices today," said Gerry Ramm, president of Inland Oil Company.
Others tried to quantify the scope that speculation has had on crude costs.
"We're paying, some believe, as high as a 50% premium to the pockets of speculators that are operating in markets that are completely unpoliced," said Michael Greenburger, a University of Maryland professor and former CFTC official. "At least 70% of the US crude oil market is driven by speculators and not people with commercial interests."
Mark Cooper, director of research at consumer rights organization Consumer Federation of America, said $40 of oil's current price is "baloney" and can be chalked up to speculation, though Soros called that an exaggeration.
Soros said the increasing cost of discovering new oil reserves, diminished supply, foreign subsidies on petroleum product prices, and speculation have all contributed to higher prices - a "bubble" that may not burst until prices become so high that they drag the economy into a recession.
"Only when a recession is well and truly in place is a decline in consumption likely to outweigh the other factors."