Current Electoral Projection

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The EC will be very close.

But I do believe McCain will win Ohio and Iowa, giving him a narrow victory.

Electoral2008.gif


The popular vote will also be close, but McCain will take it by a more comfortable margin. As reality sets in, and Obama's superstar image fades, public support for McCain will increase.

50% McCain
47% Obama
2.0% Barr
0.5% Nader
0.5% Other
 
Electoral-Vote.com has it significantly in favor of Obama.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

But I think those polls are a little biased. For instance, it has Obama slightly ahead in Indiana, which democrats are jumping all over and wetting themselves about. Sorry. The edge Obama has (<1%) is well within the margin of error. Add that to the fact that IN voted friggin DOLE ahead of Clinton by 5 points, there is no way they will turn blue over McCain.

VA is pretty much the same situation. EV.C has Obama ahead, but that ain't gonna fly at the real polls.

OTOH, the estimate posted above has McCain taking IA, historically they have a stronger tendency to favor democratic presidents. So between the two maps, take IN, OH and VA away from Obama on the EV.C map, but give Obama IA from the map above, and we have Obama taking the presidency, 273-265.

Any way you look at it, though, she's a gonna be a lot closer than the land-slide predictors wanna look at.
 
Watermark said:
Note to conservatives: just because you "don't believe" something doesn't make your reality any more real.
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Good point, they did not beleive that Bush would suck as president or Iraq would be a quagmire either. But them is the current facts.
 
Democrats have a massive amount of territory that's completely and absolutely safe. Republicans have a lot of states that are likely to go Republican. Obama WILL win the popular vote but the election depends on whether or not the Republicans can win those states by the skin of their teeth.

Even in Mississippi McCain is only winning by a bare 6 point margin. It's pretty pitiful.
 
Good Luck said:
Electoral-Vote.com has it significantly in favor of Obama.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

But I think those polls are a little biased. For instance, it has Obama slightly ahead in Indiana, which democrats are jumping all over and wetting themselves about. Sorry. The edge Obama has (<1%) is well within the margin of error. Add that to the fact that IN voted friggin DOLE ahead of Clinton by 5 points, there is no way they will turn blue over McCain.

VA is pretty much the same situation. EV.C has Obama ahead, but that ain't gonna fly at the real polls.

OTOH, the estimate posted above has McCain taking IA, historically they have a stronger tendency to favor democratic presidents. So between the two maps, take IN, OH and VA away from Obama on the EV.C map, but give Obama IA from the map above, and we have Obama taking the presidency, 273-265.

Any way you look at it, though, she's a gonna be a lot closer than the land-slide predictors wanna look at.
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Yeah, there is no way in hell Obama will take Indiana.

Virginia is also a stretch.

Everything else is feasible, but I'm still 75% sure McCain will win Iowa and Ohio.
 
Thornicus said:
Yeah, there is no way in hell Obama will take Indiana.

Virginia is also a stretch.

Everything else is feasible, but I'm still 75% sure McCain will win Iowa and Ohio.
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OH is a squeaker. I will not bet one way or the other on it.

IA is a squeaker, too. But I think IA will end up on Obama's list.

Another state I think will be a squeaker is CO, and think it will also go to McCain.

The way I have it stacked up is:
McCain: 254
Obama: 264
Flip a coin: 20
 
Watermark said:
You guys are forgetting PA.

If Obama loses PA it's over.

But at least you guys are pretty much guaranteed Florida this time.
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Historically PA only goes Republican when the democratic candidate is exceptionally weak. Obama is anything but weak. The "gun clingers" and "Bible clingers" aren't thick enough to turn PA to red.
 
Barr is going to spoil Georgia for McWarmonger and Obama will reap the spoils.

Either way, we're guaranteed a President who will threaten and/or take us to war with Iran, continue to worship the state and deflate the value of the dollar via the Federal Reserve.

We're f**ked.
 
Man, you Paulites are really concerned about some truly 19th century issues.

I mean, the gold standard? Christ. I thought that was over long ago.
 
Watermark said:
Man, you Paulites are really concerned about some truly 19th century issues.

I mean, the gold standard? Christ. I thought that was over long ago.
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Setting standards for how we elect our reps. was over long ago. Quit talking about single transferable votes. watermark is dumb . . etc
 
Watermark said:
Man, you Paulites are really concerned about some truly 19th century issues.

I mean, the gold standard? Christ. I thought that was over long ago.
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A gold standard would be almost impossible to reenact. Some type of alloy would be a far better approach. And even then, it would still be a very difficult transition.
 
Watermark said:
Man, you Paulites are really concerned about some truly 19th century issues.

I mean, the gold standard? Christ. I thought that was over long ago.
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Inflation is hardly a 19th century concern. Moreover, you're primarily thinking of the controversy over the coinage of silver in the 19th century. The gold standard was effectively ended in 1972 (Bretton-Woods).
 
Grind said:
Setting standards for how we elect our reps. was over long ago. Quit talking about single transferable votes. watermark is dumb . . etc
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We never set "standards" for how we elect our reps. Talking about the benefits of the gold standard in this day in age makes you seem like exactly the anachronism you are.

THEY SHALL NOT HANG US FROM THIS CROSS OF GOLD!
 
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