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Dead heat between Harris and Trump in Michigan
Voters who prioritize immigration favor Trump by a 79-point margin
The presidential contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is tied in Michigan, a state widely seen as a "must have" for Democrats. Harris exceeds President Joe Biden’s performance among some key voting blocs, and that makes it a dead-even race for the first time this year, according to a Fox News survey of Michigan voters conducted after Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris.In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Harris and Trump each garner 49% support. Trump was ahead of Biden by 3 points in April and by 2 points in February. In the wake of being unofficially embraced as the party’s nominee, Harris received higher support than Biden did in April, while Trump’s number held steady despite the survey being conducted soon after the Republican National Convention and a failed assassination attempt.
A Flourish chartHere’s why the race is a tossup: Men favor Trump by 13 points, while women back Harris by 12. Voters ages 45 and over prefer Trump by 2 points, but Harris is the choice among voters under 35 by 5 points. Whites without a college degree pick Trump by 15 points, while Whites with a degree go for Harris by 3 points and voters of color back her by 39 points.
Harris also receives support from union households (+6 points), and she trails by only 9 points among those who "somewhat" disapprove of Biden’s job performance.
Other groups backing Trump include Independents (+8 points), rural voters (+20), and White evangelical Christians (+48).
Compared to Biden in April, Harris performs better with Democrats (by 3 points), men (+5), Whites without a college degree (+6), Black voters (+7), voters under age 35 (+ 12), and those with negative views of both Biden and Trump (double haters +23). She does worse than Biden among voters ages 65 and over (-3 points) and suburban women (-2)....
...About 5 in 10 Michigan voters say they are falling behind financially, while almost 4 in 10 are holding steady, and 1 in 10 are getting ahead. Those numbers are mostly unchanged since April.
The economy dominates for Michigan voters, as more than twice as many (35%) say it will be the most important issue to their vote as say the same about immigration (17%) and abortion (16%). All other issues rank in the single digits....
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Trump has a significant lead over Harris with Michigan independents and at 2.4% lead according to 538
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