Debate/Assassination attempt - no change in polls.
- Thread starter Jarod
- Start date
Polls are meaningless. Almost always wrong.
T. A. Gardner
Thread Killer
Looks to me like the aggregate of polling dooms Biden.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
First, Biden and Trump are close. But Kennedy is polling consistently at about 9%. Those are Biden voters, not Trump voters. Kennedy is going to cost Biden the election.
Lichtman's Keys to the White House a prediction method that has been consistent to now, shows realistically Biden has 3 of 13 with little chance of changing that. Biden needs at least 6 to have a shot at winning. He isn't likely to get them.
National : President: general election : 2024 Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
First, Biden and Trump are close. But Kennedy is polling consistently at about 9%. Those are Biden voters, not Trump voters. Kennedy is going to cost Biden the election.
Lichtman's Keys to the White House a prediction method that has been consistent to now, shows realistically Biden has 3 of 13 with little chance of changing that. Biden needs at least 6 to have a shot at winning. He isn't likely to get them.
I don't see how Trump getting a scratch on his ear convinces undecided voters and Biden-leaners to swing over his way
The only people who seem giddy and ecstatic over the mass shooting are people who are already 500 percent committed to worshipping and adoring Trump.
christiefan915
Catalyst
Why is this 538 prediction so different from yours?Looks to me like the aggregate of polling dooms Biden.
National : President: general election : 2024 Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
First, Biden and Trump are close. But Kennedy is polling consistently at about 9%. Those are Biden voters, not Trump voters. Kennedy is going to cost Biden the election.
Lichtman's Keys to the White House a prediction method that has been consistent to now, shows realistically Biden has 3 of 13 with little chance of changing that. Biden needs at least 6 to have a shot at winning. He isn't likely to get them.
UPDATED JUL. 17, 2024, AT 12:13 PM
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
Biden wins 53 times out of 100in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump wins 46 times out of 100.
There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
volsrock1
Verified User
Only matters in 6 states
Arizona: Trump leads by 5.7 points
Georgia: Trump is up 3.9 points in the state
Nevada: Trump is up by 5
Pennsylvania: Trump holds a 4.5-point average lead
Wisconsin: Trump is winning here by three points
www.forbes.com
Trump will win Ohio and Fla
Arizona: Trump leads by 5.7 points
Georgia: Trump is up 3.9 points in the state
Nevada: Trump is up by 5
Pennsylvania: Trump holds a 4.5-point average lead
Wisconsin: Trump is winning here by three points
Trump-Biden 2024 Polls: Here’s Who’s Winning In The 6 States That Will Decide The Election
Biden’s clearest path to victory runs through the three Rust Belt swing states.
www.forbes.com
Trump will win Ohio and Fla
Why do you believe Kennedy voters are taken from Biden?Looks to me like the aggregate of polling dooms Biden.
National : President: general election : 2024 Polls
The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
First, Biden and Trump are close. But Kennedy is polling consistently at about 9%. Those are Biden voters, not Trump voters. Kennedy is going to cost Biden the election.
Lichtman's Keys to the White House a prediction method that has been consistent to now, shows realistically Biden has 3 of 13 with little chance of changing that. Biden needs at least 6 to have a shot at winning. He isn't likely to get them.
T. A. Gardner
Thread Killer
I'm looking at the polling data, you are looking at a prediction in the future made by 538 using a simulation. Keys to the White House says Biden is favored to win, but that relies on their assessment of the individual keys.Why is this 538 prediction so different from yours?
UPDATED JUL. 17, 2024, AT 12:13 PM
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
Biden wins 53 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump wins 46 times out of 100.
There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
For example, they say the economy is doing good. Two out of three Americans say the economy sucks. They say there is no real third party contender. 538 polls Kennedy at a consistent 9% +/- like 0.2%. That's a serious third-party threat to the Democrats because Kennedy isn't pulling in Trump voters.
Who's reading the tea leaves correctly? We will know for certain come November...
This is why the Chicken Little wing of the Dems should STFU about the sky falling.
PostmodernProphet
fully immersed in faith..
if he gets a swing it will be because demmycunts refer to an attempted assassination as a "scratch on his ear".........your constant disregard for lawlessness is your worst enemy.......
You mean like republiclowns refer to the J6 insurrection attempt as a "capitol tour"?
Your constant disregard for lawlessness is your worst enemy.......
Fuck yourself dead, bitch.
cawacko
Well-known member
There's a disconnect here somewhere. Based on this, that's a pretty solid lead for Biden. Yet you have a number of Democrats who want him to step down because they think he can't win. Are they all unaware of this 538 poll?Why is this 538 prediction so different from yours?
UPDATED JUL. 17, 2024, AT 12:13 PM
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
Biden wins 53 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump wins 46 times out of 100.
There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
Matt Dillon
Semolina comes from wheat
And this is how we know your polls are fake, fucktard.
Into the Night
Verified User
DON'T TRY TO TRIVIALIZE THE ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT OR ANY OTHER DEMOCRAT VIOLENCE, FUCKER.
Into the Night
Verified User
DON'T TRY TO BLAME YOUR RACISM ON VOLSROCK OR ANYBODY ELSE, FUCKER.
Into the Night
Verified User
DON'T TRY TO BLAME DEMOCRAT VIOLENCE ON TRUMP, FUCKER.You mean like republiclowns refer to the J6 insurrection attempt as a "capitol tour"?
Your constant disregard for lawlessness is your worst enemy.......
Fuck yourself dead, bitch.
Only matters in 6 states
Arizona: Trump leads by 5.7 points
Georgia: Trump is up 3.9 points in the state
Nevada: Trump is up by 5
Pennsylvania: Trump holds a 4.5-point average lead
Wisconsin: Trump is winning here by three points
Trump-Biden 2024 Polls: Here’s Who’s Winning In The 6 States That Will Decide The Election
Biden’s clearest path to victory runs through the three Rust Belt swing states.
Trump will win Ohio and Fla
You are mentally ill.
you are mentally ill
Cherry pickingOnly matters in 6 states
Arizona: Trump leads by 5.7 points
Georgia: Trump is up 3.9 points in the state
Nevada: Trump is up by 5
Pennsylvania: Trump holds a 4.5-point average lead
Wisconsin: Trump is winning here by three points
Trump-Biden 2024 Polls: Here’s Who’s Winning In The 6 States That Will Decide The Election
Biden’s clearest path to victory runs through the three Rust Belt swing states.
Trump will win Ohio and Fla