The Bare Knuckled Pundit
Grand Inquisitor
The next milestone on the road to the White House is the first presidential candidates’ debate scheduled for 9pm EST this coming Friday at the University of Mississippi in scenic Oxford. With the party conventions fading in the rearview mirror, Friday night’s debate will refocus the attention of many Americans for whom the presidential race has been drowned out by disasters both natural and economic.
Given that the race has tightened so significantly and is literally a day-to-day nip and tuck struggle in a rapidly diminishing handful of battleground states, along with the limited schedule of only three presidential and one vice presidential debates, the stakes are high, indeed.
When determining what is at stake in an event such as a debate, one must first look at the issue of expectations. At the heart of expectations are the perceptions and reputation of the candidates.
Is a candidate regarded as a policy wonk and expert? Are they more substantive or stylistic? Do they respond to questions in short, pre-scripted sound bites or are they verbose and erudite? Are they cool and contemplative or rash and easily provoked? Are their responses smooth and relaxed or do they stumble and fumble uncomfortably like a fish out of water?
In addition to their own pre-existing perceptions and reputations, each candidate also bears the burden of the expectations driven by their opponent.
Naturally one wants their foe to fall short of the mark in a debate. Accordingly, by playing up your opponent’s strengths and setting their expectations high, you raise the bar for their performance and the standard by which they are judged. If you portray your opponent as an expert in the field to be debated and they appear ill-prepared and stammer through incomplete answers, you have successfully laid and ensnared them in the expectations trap.
As Friday evening’s debate draws ever nearer, both Senator Obama and McCain’s campaigns will seek to lower expectations of their candidate’s performance while at the same time raising those of their opponent’s.
Being aware of this ahead of time, let’s objectively look at what the two presidential hopefuls bring to the table.
First is the fact that the focus of the debate will be foreign policy and international affairs. This is an expansive topic that can include everything from trade to human rights; a resurgent Russia to a pesky Venezuela; global warming to the Iranian nuclear research program; our ongoing involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan to America’s image abroad and a plethora of odd and assorted curveballs that could come screaming out of nowhere.
Senator McCain has based much of his campaign on America’s need for strong, experienced leadership in what he sees as an increasingly hostile and dangerous world. Not only does he place his experience at the forefront of his campaign, he also portrays himself as a hard-nosed realist in the face of Senator Obama’s myopic and dangerously naïve idealism. In light of his naval service and focus on military and national security affairs in the Senate, expectations for his performance are high. Accordingly, he has the most to lose from a poor showing.
Adding to the pressure of performing in what is considered to be his policy bailiwick is McCain’s reputation for being ill-tempered, easily provoked and petty. Some of the more memorable moments of the Republican primaries occurred in debates when the Senator would engage in increasingly shrill verbal sparring with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
Amidst the testy conversational combat, McCain would often snicker to himself and seek approval from the audience when he believed he had delivered a particularly sharp shot on his rival. Such displays are petty and unpresidential. Well aware of this, the Obama campaign hopes McCain will revert to standard form, alternately appearing snide and loosing his temper; thereby coming across as petty and a rash, thin-skinned hothead. If that occurs, look for Obama’s spin masters to argue McCain’s hot-blooded trigger finger can’t be trusted near the nuclear button in the post-debate spin-fest.
In contrast, expectations of Obama are relatively low, due in part to the success of McCain’s efforts to portray him as an inexperienced neophyte in the field. Having driven Obama abroad in the hope of enhancing his presidential image on the world stage, McCain has relentlessly assailed him as being dangerously unprepared to be Commander-In-Chief and confront the plethora of threats facing the nation globally.
Furthermore, Obama’s reputation as a dynamic orator has failed to translate into strong debate performances. In tacit acknowledgment of this fact, the Senator and his campaign opted to run out the clock on the Democratic primaries and forego any further debates with Senator Clinton once he had the nomination numerically locked up.
Moreover, in a medium structured for sound bites and bullet points, Senator Obama’s lengthy professorial responses often loose their impact. Though providing much sought after substance, Obama often reverts to lecture mood and becomes detached and dispassionate. One of the challenges he must address is getting his point across clearly, concisely and in a manner that demonstrates his passion and empathy.
Lest one think that potential petulant pitfalls are the exclusive domain of Senator McCain, one should be mindful of Obama’s own shortcomings in pettiness. Clearly annoyed by Senator Clinton’s lamenting, “I don’t think I’m that bad,” when asked about her dearth of “likeability” in the New Hampshire debate, Obama sarcastically quipped, “You’re likeable enough, Hillary.” Looking down, with a smirk on his face, the moment displayed the darker, petty side of Obama’s personality in stark contrast to the image of congeniality and cheerful optimism crafted by his campaign.
So, in the end, expectations and potential pitfalls are greater for Senator McCain, while Senator Obama has the luxury of relatively low expectations. Anything more than a lackluster and disjointed performance by Obama will be considered a victory, while anything less than a solid and substantive showing by McCain will be characterized as a loss.
Grab a seat and get ready for Round One, faithful readers. Stay tuned for further updates as events warrant and the intellectual elbows start to fly.
Given that the race has tightened so significantly and is literally a day-to-day nip and tuck struggle in a rapidly diminishing handful of battleground states, along with the limited schedule of only three presidential and one vice presidential debates, the stakes are high, indeed.
When determining what is at stake in an event such as a debate, one must first look at the issue of expectations. At the heart of expectations are the perceptions and reputation of the candidates.
Is a candidate regarded as a policy wonk and expert? Are they more substantive or stylistic? Do they respond to questions in short, pre-scripted sound bites or are they verbose and erudite? Are they cool and contemplative or rash and easily provoked? Are their responses smooth and relaxed or do they stumble and fumble uncomfortably like a fish out of water?
In addition to their own pre-existing perceptions and reputations, each candidate also bears the burden of the expectations driven by their opponent.
Naturally one wants their foe to fall short of the mark in a debate. Accordingly, by playing up your opponent’s strengths and setting their expectations high, you raise the bar for their performance and the standard by which they are judged. If you portray your opponent as an expert in the field to be debated and they appear ill-prepared and stammer through incomplete answers, you have successfully laid and ensnared them in the expectations trap.
As Friday evening’s debate draws ever nearer, both Senator Obama and McCain’s campaigns will seek to lower expectations of their candidate’s performance while at the same time raising those of their opponent’s.
Being aware of this ahead of time, let’s objectively look at what the two presidential hopefuls bring to the table.
First is the fact that the focus of the debate will be foreign policy and international affairs. This is an expansive topic that can include everything from trade to human rights; a resurgent Russia to a pesky Venezuela; global warming to the Iranian nuclear research program; our ongoing involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan to America’s image abroad and a plethora of odd and assorted curveballs that could come screaming out of nowhere.
Senator McCain has based much of his campaign on America’s need for strong, experienced leadership in what he sees as an increasingly hostile and dangerous world. Not only does he place his experience at the forefront of his campaign, he also portrays himself as a hard-nosed realist in the face of Senator Obama’s myopic and dangerously naïve idealism. In light of his naval service and focus on military and national security affairs in the Senate, expectations for his performance are high. Accordingly, he has the most to lose from a poor showing.
Adding to the pressure of performing in what is considered to be his policy bailiwick is McCain’s reputation for being ill-tempered, easily provoked and petty. Some of the more memorable moments of the Republican primaries occurred in debates when the Senator would engage in increasingly shrill verbal sparring with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
Amidst the testy conversational combat, McCain would often snicker to himself and seek approval from the audience when he believed he had delivered a particularly sharp shot on his rival. Such displays are petty and unpresidential. Well aware of this, the Obama campaign hopes McCain will revert to standard form, alternately appearing snide and loosing his temper; thereby coming across as petty and a rash, thin-skinned hothead. If that occurs, look for Obama’s spin masters to argue McCain’s hot-blooded trigger finger can’t be trusted near the nuclear button in the post-debate spin-fest.
In contrast, expectations of Obama are relatively low, due in part to the success of McCain’s efforts to portray him as an inexperienced neophyte in the field. Having driven Obama abroad in the hope of enhancing his presidential image on the world stage, McCain has relentlessly assailed him as being dangerously unprepared to be Commander-In-Chief and confront the plethora of threats facing the nation globally.
Furthermore, Obama’s reputation as a dynamic orator has failed to translate into strong debate performances. In tacit acknowledgment of this fact, the Senator and his campaign opted to run out the clock on the Democratic primaries and forego any further debates with Senator Clinton once he had the nomination numerically locked up.
Moreover, in a medium structured for sound bites and bullet points, Senator Obama’s lengthy professorial responses often loose their impact. Though providing much sought after substance, Obama often reverts to lecture mood and becomes detached and dispassionate. One of the challenges he must address is getting his point across clearly, concisely and in a manner that demonstrates his passion and empathy.
Lest one think that potential petulant pitfalls are the exclusive domain of Senator McCain, one should be mindful of Obama’s own shortcomings in pettiness. Clearly annoyed by Senator Clinton’s lamenting, “I don’t think I’m that bad,” when asked about her dearth of “likeability” in the New Hampshire debate, Obama sarcastically quipped, “You’re likeable enough, Hillary.” Looking down, with a smirk on his face, the moment displayed the darker, petty side of Obama’s personality in stark contrast to the image of congeniality and cheerful optimism crafted by his campaign.
So, in the end, expectations and potential pitfalls are greater for Senator McCain, while Senator Obama has the luxury of relatively low expectations. Anything more than a lackluster and disjointed performance by Obama will be considered a victory, while anything less than a solid and substantive showing by McCain will be characterized as a loss.
Grab a seat and get ready for Round One, faithful readers. Stay tuned for further updates as events warrant and the intellectual elbows start to fly.
