Dem Delegate Counter on CNN

Socrtease

Socrtease

Verified User
If you look at this right here http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html and play with it so that every state and all the Super D's are evenly split, not something likely to happen, Obama wins.

Just for worst-case scenario, I figured that PA went to Clinton, waaaay bad with a 96-62 split for her, but then the following states (which the Clinton campaign has already washed their hands of, at least for now) went as follows:

Guam 1-3 for Obama, based on other territories where he won 75%
Indiana 30-42 for Obama, based on proximity to Illinois
North Carolina 31-84 for Obama, based on South Carolina Virginia and Georgia
W. VA 14-14 split, based on...who knows ???
Kentucky 37-14 for Clinton, based on how Tenn went
Oregon 18-34 for Obama, based on WA and also being a caucus
Montana 4-12 for Obama, based on how well Obama has done in Idaho Wyoming and North Dakota
S. Dakota 3-12 for Obama, se above
Puerto Rico 28-27 split between the two, mostly for same reason as W. VA

That then leaves the 351 uncommited SuperDelegates. Just to be really pessimistic, I figured let's say that they break 2:1 for Clinton. Granted they are almost an even split now, but let's be really pessimistic. That gives Clinton 236 and Obama 115.

According to this nifty tool, that puts Obama at 2,030 and gives him the nomination, while Clinton still trails at 1,978, by roughly 50 votes.
 
Socrtease said:
If you look at this right here http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html and play with it so that every state and all the Super D's are evenly split, not something likely to happen, Obama wins.

Just for worst-case scenario, I figured that PA went to Clinton, waaaay bad with a 96-62 split for her, but then the following states (which the Clinton campaign has already washed their hands of, at least for now) went as follows:

Guam 1-3 for Obama, based on other territories where he won 75%
Indiana 30-42 for Obama, based on proximity to Illinois
North Carolina 31-84 for Obama, based on South Carolina Virginia and Georgia
W. VA 14-14 split, based on...who knows ???
Kentucky 37-14 for Clinton, based on how Tenn went
Oregon 18-34 for Obama, based on WA and also being a caucus
Montana 4-12 for Obama, based on how well Obama has done in Idaho Wyoming and North Dakota
S. Dakota 3-12 for Obama, se above
Puerto Rico 28-27 split between the two, mostly for same reason as W. VA

That then leaves the 351 uncommited SuperDelegates. Just to be really pessimistic, I figured let's say that they break 2:1 for Clinton. Granted they are almost an even split now, but let's be really pessimistic. That gives Clinton 236 and Obama 115.

According to this nifty tool, that puts Obama at 2,030 and gives him the nomination, while Clinton still trails at 1,978, by roughly 50 votes.
Click to expand...

I think your overall numbers are probably pretty close.... but I think you Hillary with too big a lead in PA, Obama with WAY to big a lead in NC and OR... and Hillary with way to big a lead in the Supers.

I used it and got Obama at 2057 and Hillary at 1951.

She would have to "steal" it with the supers to win at this point.
 
Let's say Hillary wins or ties every primary next time around:

Penn: 96-62 to Hillary
Guam: 2-2 tie
Indiana: 37-35 Hillary
North Carolina: 63-52 Hillary
WV: 15-13 Hillary
Kentucky: 37-14 Hillary
Oregon: 25-27 Hillary
Montana: 9-7 Hillary
SD: 8-7 Hillary
Puerto Rico: 32-23 Hillary

I'm being a little bit more modest in my SD's than Soc, but let's say they split 199-152 Hillary.

That gives Hillary 2003, and Obama 2005
 
Watermark said:
Let's say Hillary wins or ties every primary next time around:

Penn: 96-62 to Hillary
Guam: 2-2 tie
Indiana: 37-35 Hillary
North Carolina: 63-52 Hillary
WV: 15-13 Hillary
Kentucky: 37-14 Hillary
Oregon: 25-27 Hillary
Montana: 9-7 Hillary
SD: 8-7 Hillary
Puerto Rico: 32-23 Hillary

I'm being a little bit more modest in my SD's than Soc, but let's say they split 199-152 Hillary.

That gives Hillary 2003, and Obama 2005
Click to expand...

In that case... Edwards delegates decide the nomination. That would be really fun.... I hope yours happens. :)
 
Superfreak said:
Doubtful. He needs someone with foreign policy experience... Edwards has none.

I think he goes with Biden. Maybe an outside chance for Richardson/Clark. Very slim dark horse chance for Webb.
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I don't think the party will want him to pick webb. He's only been in office 2 years and I don't know that Va is safe enough to remove a stable dem seat. I think it will be richardson or Biden
 
Socrtease said:
I don't think the party will want him to pick webb. He's only been in office 2 years and I don't know that Va is safe enough to remove a stable dem seat. I think it will be richardson or Biden
Click to expand...

I agree.... which is why I only gave him a slim dark horse chance....
 
Socrtease said:
I don't think the party will want him to pick webb. He's only been in office 2 years and I don't know that Va is safe enough to remove a stable dem seat. I think it will be richardson or Biden
Click to expand...

Webb is definitely unstable and I have doubts about whether he can keep the seat in 4 years.
 
i herd thru the grape vine that if Hillary's plan to seize power is failing and the Florida and Michigan scams dont work... shes looking to have Puerto Rico change there vote to a winner takes all delegates contest.


i know the clinton campaign has already had them change there contest from a caucus to a primary and moved the date up 5 days..
 
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It will be Obama. The question is if she will hurt him enough to cost Americans an Obama presidency, and force us to live with four more years of Bush/Cheney/McCain!
 
Will Cheny pick Condalizard as his VP to get black and womens vote ?
I doubt it, but the darn repubs are panicky.
 
uscitizen said:
Will Cheny pick Condalizard as his VP to get black and womens vote ?
I doubt it, but the darn repubs are panicky.
Click to expand...


condi has flatly turned down any thought of being VP. She's going back to Stanford or something.

She's never been elected to any office, including dog catcher. She's not a politician. She is, at best, an educated Bush sychophant.
 
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