Mott the Hoople
Sweet Jane
Right now the talking heads are certain that Republicans will sweep the House and possibly even the Senate. I don't think that's going to happen and here's why.
For the Senate it's easy to predict why it won't happen. There are 16 senate seats up for election this cycle. 13 of those are held by Democrats, mostly in traditionally democratic States. 3 of those are is states which tend Republican. Ohio, for example, tends slightly Republican but they tend to be establishment Republicans and not Tea Party wackos or Southern wingnuts. In Ohio you have Rob Portman of Cincinnati, vs Lee Fisher of Cleveland. Portman, at present has a lead in the polls but the campaign season is just starting and he has some serious disadvantages, That is, he was President Bush's lead Trade Negotiator that negotiated the Chinese Trade agreement. Prior to that he was President Bush's Budget Director, the former doesn't play well in Ohio and the later....well that doesn't play well anywhere. So Portman is wide open to serious political attacks, his big advantage though is he has more money then Fisher. Kentucky is another example, it leans Republican and the Republican candidate has a lead in the polls but he's also an idiot who's going to get beat to death with some of the stupid things he's said. You have a similiar situation in Nevada where Angle imploded with idiotic comments. In short, of the 16 Senate seats up for grabs Repubs will have to pick up 13 of them to take control of the Senate. Not likely to happen.
The house has greater potential for Republicans as Democrats have taken some big hits in popularity in the last two years but they have some significant problems that will impede their obtaining the 39 additional seats they need.
#1. Gerrymandered districts make those kinds of pick ups difficult in one election cycle. It took two election cycles for Dems to do it.
#2. Dems has a substantial advantage in money to spend in key battles.
#3. Repubs have some serious organizational problems. They are having a serious internal dissent with RNC Chair Michael Steele and this has prevented Repubs from getting out a consistent message.
#4. Repubs are still widely blamed by the public for getting us into the economic mess that Dems have made themselves unpopular for in their attempts to get us out of. The voting public hasn't forgotten this.
#5. Nothing new is coming out of the Republican party. They keep regurgitating the same tired old "Lets cut taxes for the rich" mantra and unpopular Bush era policies.
#6. This lack of new ideas gives Dems to opportunity to label Repubs as "The Party of No" and so far this has been quite affective for Dems as they are defining the Repubs message for them a critical strategic blunder for Repubs. The most feared question Repubs have right now is "What will you do if you get in office?"
#7. This inability by Repubs to prove that they are prepared and have the ability to govern is a serious short coming and considering their abysmal recent history, will give many voters pause to think before voting Republican.
#8. The Tea Party is a lead anchor around the Republican parties neck. The Republican party has been working hard to regain their image as "establishment Republicans" only to have it sabotaged by Tea Party elements. Dems will have a hay day painting the Tea Party element as extremist and the stupid shit some of these tea baggers, like Paul and Angle, have been saying won't help.
Dems are fighting a wave of resentment for their failure to quickly dig us out of the hole that Repubs put us into and fighting such an ideological wave can sweep over some individual candidates who will literally get lost in the tide when it comes to individual campaigns but Republican party problems are to substantial to overcome in one election cycle. The will make significant gains in both houses but they will not win either.
For the Senate it's easy to predict why it won't happen. There are 16 senate seats up for election this cycle. 13 of those are held by Democrats, mostly in traditionally democratic States. 3 of those are is states which tend Republican. Ohio, for example, tends slightly Republican but they tend to be establishment Republicans and not Tea Party wackos or Southern wingnuts. In Ohio you have Rob Portman of Cincinnati, vs Lee Fisher of Cleveland. Portman, at present has a lead in the polls but the campaign season is just starting and he has some serious disadvantages, That is, he was President Bush's lead Trade Negotiator that negotiated the Chinese Trade agreement. Prior to that he was President Bush's Budget Director, the former doesn't play well in Ohio and the later....well that doesn't play well anywhere. So Portman is wide open to serious political attacks, his big advantage though is he has more money then Fisher. Kentucky is another example, it leans Republican and the Republican candidate has a lead in the polls but he's also an idiot who's going to get beat to death with some of the stupid things he's said. You have a similiar situation in Nevada where Angle imploded with idiotic comments. In short, of the 16 Senate seats up for grabs Repubs will have to pick up 13 of them to take control of the Senate. Not likely to happen.
The house has greater potential for Republicans as Democrats have taken some big hits in popularity in the last two years but they have some significant problems that will impede their obtaining the 39 additional seats they need.
#1. Gerrymandered districts make those kinds of pick ups difficult in one election cycle. It took two election cycles for Dems to do it.
#2. Dems has a substantial advantage in money to spend in key battles.
#3. Repubs have some serious organizational problems. They are having a serious internal dissent with RNC Chair Michael Steele and this has prevented Repubs from getting out a consistent message.
#4. Repubs are still widely blamed by the public for getting us into the economic mess that Dems have made themselves unpopular for in their attempts to get us out of. The voting public hasn't forgotten this.
#5. Nothing new is coming out of the Republican party. They keep regurgitating the same tired old "Lets cut taxes for the rich" mantra and unpopular Bush era policies.
#6. This lack of new ideas gives Dems to opportunity to label Repubs as "The Party of No" and so far this has been quite affective for Dems as they are defining the Repubs message for them a critical strategic blunder for Repubs. The most feared question Repubs have right now is "What will you do if you get in office?"
#7. This inability by Repubs to prove that they are prepared and have the ability to govern is a serious short coming and considering their abysmal recent history, will give many voters pause to think before voting Republican.
#8. The Tea Party is a lead anchor around the Republican parties neck. The Republican party has been working hard to regain their image as "establishment Republicans" only to have it sabotaged by Tea Party elements. Dems will have a hay day painting the Tea Party element as extremist and the stupid shit some of these tea baggers, like Paul and Angle, have been saying won't help.
Dems are fighting a wave of resentment for their failure to quickly dig us out of the hole that Repubs put us into and fighting such an ideological wave can sweep over some individual candidates who will literally get lost in the tide when it comes to individual campaigns but Republican party problems are to substantial to overcome in one election cycle. The will make significant gains in both houses but they will not win either.
