Electoral projections

[FUCK THE POLICE]

Here's a dream one for Obama:

If John McCain proven to be gay or a pedohpile (like Republicans usually do) or something we can count on it looking like this.


Here's something based a little more in reality:

 

[Cancel11]

You have Obama winning Indiana, but losing Ohio? :eek3:

There's no way in hell Obama can win Indiana.

The outcome election will come down to three States: Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado. McCain MUST win Ohio to win the election, as well as Iowa and/OR Colorado.

Of the three, my current projection is that McCain will take Ohio and Iowa, but lose Colorado.

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

You have Obama winning Indiana, but losing Ohio? :eek3:

Whoops. Reverse those two.

The outcome election will come down to three States: Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado. McCain MUST win Ohio to win the election, as well as Iowa and/OR Colorado.

Of the three, my current projection is that McCain will take Ohio and Iowa, but lose Colorado.

Obama is favored in Rasmussen markets in Iowa by like 80%, in Ohio by 65%. He's also favored in Colorado by 70%, Virginia by 55%, and Nevada 52% to 48%. Markets are generally more accurate predictors of election results than normal polls.

It just isn't looking that good for McCain at all.

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

Even if Obama lost Nevada, Virginia, and Colorado, he'd still win. The math just doesn't work for McCain at all. McCain can only be president if he slam dunks.

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

You see, you have McCain winning Ohio and Iowa, and Obama is far more likely to win Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, and Montana than McCain is to win Ohio and Iowa.

 

[Cancel11]

You see, you have McCain winning Ohio and Iowa, and Obama is far more likely to win Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, and Montana than McCain is to win Ohio and Iowa.

I don't think it's likely at all that Obama will win Virginia, Missouri or Montana.

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

I don't think it's likely at all that Obama will win Virginia, Missouri or Montana.

There's a lot of people who disagree with you.

My point, however, is that he's a lot more likely to win them than McCain is to win Ohio and Iowa. McCain is probably more likely to win New Hampshire than Ohio and Iowa.

 

[BRUTALITOPS]

LANDSLIDE!!!!111

 

[Minister of Truth]

I tend to take projections from dudes sporting carebears with more than a grain of salt. It makes them look like homo's at best and more generally like retards...

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

Anyway, alterations to my map:

Missouri goes to Obama, Indiana McCain, and Ohio Obama. Letting McCain keep Virginia is generous but I'm willing to do it for no other reason than emphasize how fucked the Republicans are and how likely it is that our next president will be a radical black unpatriotic muslim.

 

[Minister of Truth]

Anyway, alterations to my map:

Missouri goes to Obama, Indiana McCain, and Ohio Obama. Letting McCain keep Virginia is generous but I'm willing to do it for no other reason than emphasize how fucked the Republicans are and how likely it is that our next president will be a radical black unpatriotic muslim.

You can add "douchebag" if its a Dem.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

You have Obama winning Indiana, but losing Ohio? :eek3:

There's no way in hell Obama can win Indiana.

The outcome election will come down to three States: Ohio, Iowa, and Colorado. McCain MUST win Ohio to win the election, as well as Iowa and/OR Colorado.

Of the three, my current projection is that McCain will take Ohio and Iowa, but lose Colorado.

Ohio voters tend to be quite independent. McCains strongest support is in Southwest, Ohio (Cincinnati metro region) and the western agricultural counties. Low turn out is expected there cause these folks tend to be hard right and are not enthused with McCain. Most of the rest of the state, due to recent controversies involving Republicans, and with a very popular Democrat as Governor is pretty much in Obama's camp. Obama should pick up Ohio.

The thing that will be real important here is if Obama can pick up some southern states and start to destroy this "Conservative vs liberal, red state vs blue state paradigm.

 

[The Bare Knuckled Pundit]

Projections are all well and good, but they're just that; projections.

There are still 119 days till the election. That's is several eternities in politics. Prime example; Mike "Tanker" Dukakis was hammering George H. Bush with a 12 point lead on Labor Day in 1988. Bush not only rallied, but beat the good Governor 53 to 47, a six point spread. However, the more telling figure is the 426 to 111 electoral vote total.

While I would say at this point it is Obama's to lose, this is far from over.

 

[Epicurus]

Projections are all well and good, but they're just that; projections.

There are still 119 days till the election. That's is several eternities in politics. Prime example; Mike "Tanker" Dukakis was hammering George H. Bush with a 12 point lead on Labor Day in 1988. Bush not only rallied, but beat the good Governor 53 to 47, a six point spread. However, the more telling figure is the 426 to 111 electoral vote total.

While I would say at this point it is Obama's to lose, this is far from over.

Definitely.

That is what I keep telling people when they are celebrating Obama's numbers right now.

Kerry looked promising at this time in 2004. You just can't predict things accurately from this far out.

 

[Cancel4]

Rememebr that the RePigs STEAL elections

 

[Epicurus]

Shutup troll.

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

Ohio voters tend to be quite independent. McCains strongest support is in Southwest, Ohio (Cincinnati metro region) and the western agricultural counties. Low turn out is expected there cause these folks tend to be hard right and are not enthused with McCain. Most of the rest of the state, due to recent controversies involving Republicans, and with a very popular Democrat as Governor is pretty much in Obama's camp. Obama should pick up Ohio.

The thing that will be real important here is if Obama can pick up some southern states and start to destroy this "Conservative vs liberal, red state vs blue state paradigm.

Which is why I'm hoping for the above wipeout. It would bring in a president of national unity who would end this division Bushes two extremely narrow elections have brought about.

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

Projections are all well and good, but they're just that; projections.

There are still 119 days till the election. That's is several eternities in politics. Prime example; Mike "Tanker" Dukakis was hammering George H. Bush with a 12 point lead on Labor Day in 1988. Bush not only rallied, but beat the good Governor 53 to 47, a six point spread. However, the more telling figure is the 426 to 111 electoral vote total.

While I would say at this point it is Obama's to lose, this is far from over.

426 to 111 with 47% of the vote indicates that he lost a ton of the states by the skin of his teeth. He just didn't run a good campaign. I seriously doubt McCain can repeat H.W's slam dunk.

 

[Cancel 2016.2]

Here's a dream one for Obama:

If John McCain proven to be gay or a pedohpile (like Republicans usually do) or something we can count on it looking like this.


Here's something based a little more in reality:

I would agree with your closer to reality scenario, though I would flip MI and OH.

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

It all really hinges on Ohio again. But Ohio is likely to go Obama. If Obama manages to pick up Virginia or Missouri it would make up the difference and he could win without Ohio, but in an electoral performance so poor he didn't win Ohio, I doubt he could win one of those two either.