Fidel's Frustrating Follies - Obama, Raul and Havana's Mixed Messages

The Bare Knuckled Pundit

The Bare Knuckled Pundit

Grand Inquisitor
Despite the recent flurry of diplomatic flattery between President Barack Obama and his Cuban counterpart, Raul Castro, you may want to hold off clearing out room in your humidor and looking for cheap flights to Havana just yet. While it initially appeared that Spring was bringing a long-awaited thawing of relations between the United States and our erstwhile Cuban friends, an arctic blast courtesy of revolutionary godfather and nemesis of nine American presidents, Fidel Castro, indicates that while there may appear to be cracks in the ice, it is by no means broken and far from being melted.

Feeling the need to correct the neophyte occupant of the White House last week, the iconic leader of Cuba's Communist Revolution angrily chided Obama in a blog post, saying he "without a doubt misinterpreted Raul's declaration."

After defending the regime's policy of charging a 10 percent fee on every US dollar sent to island relatives from Cuban-Americans, Fidel went on to blast the latest President to administer the decades-long embargo against the island for displaying signs of "superficiality," and called on him to drop the "blockade" against Cuba. Obama had previously called for the fee to be dropped as a gesture of "good will" that would benefit the Cuban people as much as it would signal Havana's seriousness about opening a direct dialogue with Washington.

Extolling the virtues of the Revolution, Castro emphasized that the revenue generated from fees on exchanging dollars provides free health care, education and subsidized food to all of Cuba's population. Despite the subsidies and Fidel's protestations to the contrary, 12.9 percent of Cubans identified food scarcity as the country's biggest problem, with 83.6 percent saying they would vote for a free market economic system given the opportunity in a November, 2008 poll.

Clarifying his younger brother's previous remarks that he was ready to discuss "everything, everything, everything", the elder Castro insisted, "When the President of Cuba said he was ready to discuss any topic with the U.S. President, he meant he was not afraid of addressing any issue."

"That shows his courage and confidence in the principles of the Revolution," the former president wrote.

After transferring power to the 77-year-old Raul following a debilitating illness in 2006, Fidel formally surrendered the presidency in February 2008. Nonetheless, the charismatic and incendiary 82-year-old patriarch of the Revolution retains enormous influence and remains head of Cuba's Communist Party. This in addition to serving as inspiration and role model for a new generation of anti-American strongmen and Leftist statists throughout Central and South America like Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

Coming on the heels of a week that saw serious speculation about the prospects for a possible new era of bilateral relations between the United States and Cuba, Fidel's remarks have given pause to many who believed the two were headed towards a thaw in the chilly state of affairs that has existed for nearly half a century. Given the warmth and exuberance of the prior week's exchange between Presidents Obama and Castro and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, one would naturally wonder what exactly is going on behind the scenes in Havana. A number of plausible explanations are possible. Among them are:

- Though having formally relinquished power to Raul, Fidel's ego is unable to accept the possibility that his younger brother could so easily abandon one of the regime's and it's former leader's core components - a virulent and passionate anti-Americanism.

In doing so, Raul would not only insult his older brother, but would also be undermining literally decades of caustic revolutionary rhetoric and regime propaganda. Unwilling to add insult to initial injury, Raul has remained silent in the wake of Fidel's angry intransigence and his fiery defense of the revolutionary regime's policies.

- In a masterful bit of high drama and well-scripted duplicity, the Brothers Castro are delivering an award-winning "good cop-bad cop" performance.

Though Raul has given a glimmer of hope in his initial willingness to put "everything" on the table, Fidel quickly stepped in and angrily slammed his fist on it. Nikita Khrushchev would be so proud.

Under this scenario, the choreography is designed to hold out the possibility of progress in the hope of gaining "good faith" concessions from Washington without taking reciprocating tangible steps. Should Washington tire of the fruitless frustration of dancing to Havana's conflicting political beats, the Brothers Castro can then close ranks and condemn Obama as being just another feckless and insincere Yankee imperialist.

- Raul fell victim to Obama mania and the President's rock star allure.

After watching literally hundreds of hours of Obama and his supporters chanting "Change!" and "Si se puede!" on the campaign trail on CNN Espanol last year, Raul has fallen prey to the President's hypnotic mantra.

Imagine Raul walking around with the swirling hypnotic eyes portrayed in the cartoons of your youth; Bugs Bunny, for instance.

Mesmerized by Obama's hypnotic prowess, the geriatric revolutionary couldn't resist his magnetic personality and sly diplomatic entreaties. Raul had no control over himself, nor any consciousness of what he was saying in response to the young president's silky siren song.

Uh...yeah. Or as they say down Havana way, uh....si.

And finally....

- The conflicting statements coming from the Brothers Castro are indicative of a heretofore unidentified rift within the regime.

Does Raul long to signal once and for all he firmly holds the reins of power? Is this an attempt to step out of Fidel's shadow? Could this be the first signs of an internal regime power struggle spilling out in the open? Has Raul been influenced by the 68.8 percent and 63 percent respectively in the aforementioned poll that stated they believed the government would be unable to resolve Cuba's most pressing problems in the next few years and would vote in favor of a democratic political system if given the opportunity?

Is there a "progressive" faction in the revolutionary regime that is willing to substitute pragmatism and reform for decaying dogma and archaic belligerence?

Did Fidel's statements represent a reaction from the regime's "old guard" or is it the graying revolutionary lion vainly roaring at the tides of change? Washington and millions on both sides of the Straits of Florida will watch closely for further signs out of Havana as to who actually conducts the band and what tune they will ultimately call.

Havana daydreamin', indeed, faithful readers.

Stay tuned for further updates as events warrant and we see whether or not the President is just dreamin' his foreign policy away.
 
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The Bare Knuckled Pundit said:
Despite the recent flurry of diplomatic flattery between President Barack Obama and his Cuban counterpart, Raul Castro, you may want to hold off clearing out room in your humidor and looking for cheap flights to Havana just yet. While it initially appeared that Spring was bringing a long-awaited thawing of relations between the United States and our erstwhile Cuban friends, an arctic blast courtesy of revolutionary godfather and nemesis of nine American presidents, Fidel Castro, indicates that while there may appear to be cracks in the ice, it is by no means broken and far from being melted.

Feeling the need to correct the neophyte occupant of the White House last week, the iconic leader of Cuba's Communist Revolution angrily chided Obama in a blog post, saying he "without a doubt misinterpreted Raul's declaration."

After defending the regime's policy of charging a 10 percent fee on every US dollar sent to island relatives from Cuban-Americans, Fidel went on to blast the latest President to administer the decades-long embargo against the island for displaying signs of "superficiality," and called on him to drop the "blockade" against Cuba. Obama had previously called for the fee to be dropped as a gesture of "good will" that would benefit the Cuban people as much as it would signal Havana's seriousness about opening a direct dialogue with Washington.

Extolling the virtues of the Revolution, Castro emphasized that the revenue generated from fees on exchanging dollars provides free health care, education and subsidized food to all of Cuba's population. Despite the subsidies and Fidel's protestations to the contrary, 12.9 percent of Cubans identified food scarcity as the country's biggest problem, with 83.6 percent saying they would vote for a free market economic system given the opportunity in a November, 2008 poll.

Clarifying his younger brother's previous remarks that he was ready to discuss "everything, everything, everything", the elder Castro insisted, "When the President of Cuba said he was ready to discuss any topic with the U.S. President, he meant he was not afraid of addressing any issue."

"That shows his courage and confidence in the principles of the Revolution," the former president wrote.

After transferring power to the 77-year-old Raul following a debilitating illness in 2006, Fidel formally surrendered the presidency in February 2008. Nonetheless, the charismatic and incendiary 82-year-old patriarch of the Revolution retains enormous influence and remains head of Cuba's Communist Party. This in addition to serving as inspiration and role model for a new generation of anti-American strongmen and Leftist statists throughout Central and South America like Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

Coming on the heels of a week that saw serious speculation about the prospects for a possible new era of bilateral relations between the United States and Cuba, Fidel's remarks have given pause to many who believed the two were headed towards a thaw in the chilly state of affairs that has existed for nearly half a century. Given the warmth and exuberance of the prior week's exchange between Presidents Obama and Castro and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, one would naturally wonder what exactly is going on behind the scenes in Havana. A number of plausible explanations are possible. Among them are:

- Though having formally relinquished power to Raul, Fidel's ego is unable to accept the possibility that his younger brother could so easily abandon one of the regime's and it's former leader's core components - a virulent and passionate anti-Americanism.

In doing so, Raul would not only insult his older brother, but would also be undermining literally decades of caustic revolutionary rhetoric and regime propaganda. Unwilling to add insult to initial injury, Raul has remained silent in the wake of Fidel's angry intransigence and his fiery defense of the revolutionary regime's policies.

- In a masterful bit of high drama and well-scripted duplicity, the Brothers Castro are delivering an award-winning "good cop-bad cop" performance.

Though Raul has given a glimmer of hope in his initial willingness to put "everything" on the table, Fidel quickly stepped in and angrily slammed his fist on it. Nikita Khrushchev would be so proud.

Under this scenario, the choreography is designed to hold out the possibility of progress in the hope of gaining "good faith" concessions from Washington without taking reciprocating tangible steps. Should Washington tire of the fruitless frustration of dancing to Havana's conflicting political beats, the Brothers Castro can then close ranks and condemn Obama as being just another feckless and insincere Yankee imperialist.

- Raul fell victim to Obama mania and the President's rock star allure.

After watching literally hundreds of hours of Obama and his supporters chanting "Change!" and "Si se puede!" on the campaign trail on CNN Espanol last year, Raul has fallen prey to the President's hypnotic mantra.

Imagine Raul walking around with the swirling hypnotic eyes portrayed in the cartoons of your youth; Bugs Bunny, for instance.

Mesmerized by Obama's hypnotic prowess, the geriatric revolutionary couldn't resist his magnetic personality and sly diplomatic entreaties. Raul had no control over himself, nor any consciousness of what he was saying in response to the young president's silky siren song.

Uh...yeah. Or as they say down Havana way, uh....si.

And finally....

- The conflicting statements coming from the Brothers Castro are indicative of a heretofore unidentified rift within the regime.

Does Raul long to signal once and for all he firmly holds the reins of power? Is this an attempt to step out of Fidel's shadow? Could this be the first signs of an internal regime power struggle spilling out in the open? Has Raul been influenced by the 68.8 percent and 63 percent respectively in the aforementioned poll that stated they believed the government would be unable to resolve Cuba's most pressing problems in the next few years and would vote in favor of a democratic political system if given the opportunity?

Is there a "progressive" faction in the revolutionary regime that is willing to substitute pragmatism and reform for decaying dogma and archaic belligerence?

Did Fidel's statements represent a reaction from the regime's "old guard" or is it the graying revolutionary lion vainly roaring at the tides of change? Washington and millions on both sides of the Straits of Florida will watch closely for further signs out of Havana as to who actually conducts the band and what tune they will ultimately call.

Havana daydreamin', indeed, faithful readers.

Stay tuned for further updates as events warrant and we see whether or not the President is just dreamin' his foreign policy away.
Click to expand...

I'm not certain of where you're going with this, but It's unclear to me how to start diplomatic dialog with unfriendly or arms length governments without the initial overtures necessary to break the ice. Obama should be congratulated, not castigated, by those who would criticise him for waking up in the morning.
I suggest reading in your link, the April, 2009 survey of Cuban Americans regarding Obama's lifting of the travel ban and his Cuban Policies. It is apparent that Cubans, as do their US counterparts, to a very high degree are in support of both the President and his Cuban policies. What segment of the US population would have a better insight of the policies favorable for improving relations with Cuba and thus most beneficial for those family members that remain in the old country?
My wife is a US born Cuban, we, and her family, are already formulating plans for travel to the Old Country. Over the years since the beloved Reagan, I have watched their political attitudes change to a point where it won't be long until they mirror the general Latin population, particularly as the 1958 refugees pass on. I would bever say "I told you so" to them, they say it for me.
 
With all due respect, Belme, I previously praised the President for his initial overture.

In "Viva Obama", I wrote, "Moving on to the sun-kissed shores of the Caribbean, the President has taken the first steps down the long and winding road towards normalization of relations between the US and our Communist friends across the Straits of Florida in Havana. This is long overdue; twenty years so, in fact.

In the wake of the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the moment was ripe for the US to pursue detente with Cuba. For whatever reason, George H. Bush chose not to capitalize on the historic opportunity, though. One can only imagine what the state of American-Cuban relations might be today had Bush 41 had the intestinal fortitude to boldly move to dispense with what was clearly an archaic relic of the recently-passed Cold War at the time.

Regardless of what may have been, relations remained stagnant to icy over the next two decades between the two antagonists facing each other across the Floridian Straits. That is till a series of overtures from Washington that began with the announcement earlier this week that the President was easing restrictions on family remittances, communication, limited trade and travel to the island of rum, revolutionaries and cigars.

The President's overtures sparked an increasingly warm exchange that played out of the course of the week and culminated in Cuban President Raul Castro's statement that Havana was willing to discuss "everything".

Following this, speaking at the opening ceremony of the Summit of the Americas, Obama said, "The United States seeks a new beginning with Cuba."

While no direct dialogue has occurred as yet, the potential long term geopolitical significance of this first round of warm wishes should not be underestimated. That being said, observers should likewise be keen not to naively assume progress will be quick or easy.

There are significant, deep-seeded differences and issues between the two decades-long antagonists. Property rights, political dissent, brand trademarks and human rights are all potentially thorny points encompassed in "everything" Castro indicated he was willing to discuss. Many of these will take considerable amounts of effort, patience and time to resolve. Along the way, it should be expected that progress may often be fitful and accompanied by the occasional setback. Accordingly, all, including the President, would be well-advised to remain realistic, however earnest and hopeful they might otherwise be.

Nonetheless, join me, if you will and raise your Cuba Libre as we give the President warm Caribbean kudos for taking the first tentative steps towards normalized relations between ourselves and our comrades in Cuba.

Viva Obama, faithful readers! Smoke 'em, if ya got 'em. If not, you may well have in the not-so-distant future.

Stay tuned for further updates as events warrant and we see if something more substantive than warm greetings crosses the Strait of Florida anytime in the near future."

My focus in "Fidel's Frustrating Follies" is on the mixed messages coming out of Havana, not the response to the President's overtures in the Cuban American community. Indeed, as I pointed out, this is an example of the fitful progress that should be expected if Washington and Havana seriously pursue detente. Therefore, I stand by my original counsel that the President, his advisers and those eagerly watching on both sides of the Straits - including your in-laws - remain patient and realistic in their expectations.
 
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