For the Doom and Gloomers

B

Bonestorm

Thrillhouse
A ray of hope?

New orders for long-lasting U.S.-made manufactured goods rose by a much bigger-than-expected 5.2 percent in December and a key gauge of business spending also surged, a Commerce Department report showed on Tuesday.

Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a proxy for business investment, rose a much greater-than-expected 4.4 percent. It was the first rise in that category since September, a Commerce Department official said.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected orders for durables to rise 1.5 percent and for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft to rise 0.1 percent.

Stronger-than-expected orders suggested the economy is healthier than many have believed. U.S. interest-rate futures and government bond prices fell after the report, while stock futures rose. The dollar rose against the yen and the Swiss franc.

"The durable goods report suggests that the economy is probably in better shape than a lot of people thought, although it is only one month," said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates in St. Petersburg, Florida.

Even when the volatile transportation category was stripped out, durable goods orders rose 2.6 percent last month. Excluding defense orders, durables demand climbed 2.9 percent.

Analysts had forecast durables orders to be unchanged excluding transportation and to rise 0.7 percent excluding defense.

For all of 2007, durables orders rose a slim 1 percent, the weakest showing since a 3.2 percent decline in 2002, the government said.

In December, transportation equipment orders rose 11.3 percent as a sharp rise in Boeing aircraft orders, mostly from abroad, pushed up orders for civilian aircraft and parts.
Click to expand...


http://www.cnbc.com/id/22894241
 
Dungheap said:
A ray of hope?




http://www.cnbc.com/id/22894241
Click to expand...

No. We are going into a recession in 2008.

"For all of 2007, durables orders rose a slim 1 percent, the weakest showing since a 3.2 percent decline in 2002, the government said."

That was the most important part of the article. The one month surge is due in large part to the ass kicking that took place earlier in the year. Note they talk about the 4.4% surge in December yet for all of 2007 durables only rose 1%. So what does that say about the January-November time frame?
 
Now that SF says we're going into a recession, I think I may have to change my mind on the issue.
 
id say we are up to 50-50 now that we hit recession. tho we haven't had a negative gdp month yet.
 
Could it be that people that have money left are sick of crappy quality China products that most can only afford to buy? Would that be a good indicator of a rising economy for the private sector. Nope--why? Poverity is also riding, and they can't afford most American made products that China has a crappy product right next to on the shelf.

You have to question the interests of the person who writes such articles. How much is 5% of 10% of the products we manufacture here now? They bought about .5% more goods for all goods. It is probably because some of us that can afford it---desire a qulaity product. Good for US companies--but hardly a indicator of a rising economy.
 
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