Generic Congressional ballot tightening...

WRL

WRL

Well...the right is right
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that, if the Congressional Election were held today, 44% of American voters say they would vote for the Democrat in their district and 40% would opt for the Republican (see crosstabs). It’s the second consecutive month that the Democrat’s advantage has been in single digits. A month ago, Democrats enjoyed a five-point lead. Two months ago, they had a ten-point edge over the GOP.

Democrats lead by thirteen among women while Republicans lead by six among men.

Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided between the parties—32% say they’ll vote for a Republican, 32% for a Democrat, 13% for a third-party option, and 23% remain undecided. A month ago, Democrats had a six-point lead among unaffiliated voters. Two months ago, they enjoyed a twenty-point advantage.

Just 15% of Americans currently give Congress good or excellent marks for their legislative efforts.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_americ a/congressional_ballot/generic_congressional_ballot

These numbers are interesting, it shows a great reversal of fortunes for both Democrats and Republicans. It seems with John McCain Republicans are moving toward the center, and the Democrats with Hillery and Obama, two far leftists, to the fringes. This is in line with what I've felt all along, so many recently have been writing the Republican parties obituary, saying outlandish impossible things. The country is moving to the left, becoming more liberal, when the elections in past 20 years have shown us otherwise, liberalism's hey day is long gone, no longer do the American people think government has all the answers, to many times we've seen the ineffectiveness of the bureaucrats and big government liberals drive us from our potential. The path of the future is lower taxes, smaller central government, and being strong on National Security.

It would appear the Democrats need this lesson one more time...
 
WRL said:
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that, if the Congressional Election were held today, 44% of American voters say they would vote for the Democrat in their district and 40% would opt for the Republican (see crosstabs). It’s the second consecutive month that the Democrat’s advantage has been in single digits. A month ago, Democrats enjoyed a five-point lead. Two months ago, they had a ten-point edge over the GOP.

Democrats lead by thirteen among women while Republicans lead by six among men.

Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided between the parties—32% say they’ll vote for a Republican, 32% for a Democrat, 13% for a third-party option, and 23% remain undecided. A month ago, Democrats had a six-point lead among unaffiliated voters. Two months ago, they enjoyed a twenty-point advantage.

Just 15% of Americans currently give Congress good or excellent marks for their legislative efforts.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_americ a/congressional_ballot/generic_congressional_ballot

These numbers are interesting, it shows a great reversal of fortunes for both Democrats and Republicans. It seems with John McCain Republicans are moving toward the center, and the Democrats with Hillery and Obama, two far leftists, to the fringes. This is in line with what I've felt all along, so many recently have been writing the Republican parties obituary, saying outlandish impossible things. The country is moving to the left, becoming more liberal, when the elections in past 20 years have shown us otherwise, liberalism's hey day is long gone, no longer do the American people think government has all the answers, to many times we've seen the ineffectiveness of the bureaucrats and big government liberals drive us from our potential. The path of the future is lower taxes, smaller central government, and being strong on National Security.

It would appear the Democrats need this lesson one more time...
Click to expand...



LOL i'm going to enjoy shoving this post back up your cunt come november.
 
That's just natural progression as we get closer to the election.

It's harder to cast "generic votes" in support of a Democrat or Republican once it becomes more clear who the candidates will be. People's minds automatically substitute the frontrunning D and R into the polls and vote accordingly.

The entire time people have been touting the massive Democratic lead in the generic ballot, realists have been pointing out that the matchups with actual candidates have showed less dramatic Democratic leads.

Now, even the politically uninformed are aware of who the candidates are likely to be, so asking people whether they generically support a Democrat or Republican in November is naturally going to change as a result.
 
95% of incumbents win. And the Republicans would need a MASSIVE lead in new wins in order to take back the hosue, which they aren't going to get.

Americans hate you government loving fearmongering bafoons. Get over it.
 
Epicurus said:
That's just natural progression as we get closer to the election.

It's harder to cast "generic votes" in support of a Democrat or Republican once it becomes more clear who the candidates will be. People's minds automatically substitute the frontrunning D and R into the polls and vote accordingly.

The entire time people have been touting the massive Democratic lead in the generic ballot, realists have been pointing out that the matchups with actual candidates have showed less dramatic Democratic leads.

Now, even the politically uninformed are aware of who the candidates are likely to be, so asking people whether they generically support a Democrat or Republican in November is naturally going to change as a result.
Click to expand...

I tend to agree, it has to do more with the front runners, but I also think it in line with the progression of the country lately, the whole nation didn't flip on it's head in one election cycle, I think some liberals have gotten far ahead of themselves.
 
WRL said:
I tend to agree, it has to do more with the front runners, but I also think it in line with the progression of the country lately, the whole nation didn't flip on it's head in one election cycle, I think some liberals have gotten far ahead of themselves.
Click to expand...

I just don't think it represents a shift of opinion as much as it does a natural progression.

Barack Obama vs. McCain, and Hillary vs. McCain have always been more competitive polls than Democrat vs. Republican, which have been D landslides.

Now that even the most ignorant among us know that Obama or Hill will be the D, and McCain will be the R, it's hard to provide a truely "generic" response" without considering who the frontrunners are in each party.
 
Well the undecided vote certainly there has been a shift, 20 points in 2 months is a shift. With McCain Republicans have a solid individual who is moderate on many issues, yet fiscally Conservative. Yet still that is in line with the progression of the last 20 years. So we basically agree...
 
But as you said it is a generic ballot. Ask about actual names and see what the answer is in each congressional district and statewide for Senators. Barbra Boxer vs just about any Republican name and she wins easily. Trent Lott (if he were running) vs. any Dem name and he wins easily. Republicans have had massive retirements in congress and some in the senate. I know that with Domenici leaving his seat this year, New Mexico is very likely to have a democratic senator in both seats for the first time since Domenici took that seat. The other thing that I think will be telling is whether Obama or Hillary is the nominee. If Obama is the nominee there are going to be LOTS of motivated dems out there voting. He has much better coat tails than she does.
 
All of the Republican delegation's seats are up for grabs in Mississippi this time around.

I think, at the end of it, the Republicans will probably gain on what they had before. Democrats piss away golden opportunities like no one else.
 
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