Graph of the Day

B

Bonestorm

Thrillhouse
This is why something has to be done about healthcare:

healthgrowthlongterm.jpg


It's eating up and will continue to eat up way too much money.


http://cbo.gov/ftpdocs/89xx/doc8947/01-31-HealthcareSlides.pdf
 
Also to remember the better our health care the more money SS will require to stay solvent.

I guess we need HMO rev1.0002. It fixed the health care system before didn't it ?
 
looked at there pp slides. seems like there forecasting logic/assumptions are flawed. notice the smooth upward trend on there forecast and the historic up and downs.

in my experience in forecasting you cant use a small subset of historic data (like last 5 years) to forecast out 70years. It almost NEVER is accurate.
 
I can make graphs that project 80 years into the future, too. Doesn't mean that things will happen that way, though.
 
The thing of it is, if we do nothing about the cost we are just throwing a blanket on it and pretending that it doesn't exist. It will bankrupt us if we don't do something about the actual cost before we decide to cover it with "other people's" money and pretend that it is no longer a problem.
 
having had worked at that largest retirement financial institution in the world for 8+years and doing forecasting almost exclusive for a couple years I can tell you with almost absolute certainty that anything over 5years being forecasted is suspect. its wrong 99% of the time after year 5.
 
Especially if the graph starts only a year ago but continues on for 80 years...that means that we aren't seeing any evidence, only predictions.
 
makes you question the CBO.. (which i already do on regular basis) they are DEFINITELY not on the up and up with allot of there 'predictions' Seems they have ulterior motives on a regular basis since they don’t use fundamental financial and economic theory and practice in some of there pictures they paint.

Some eat it up however… like trusting a doctor like they are god..
 
So if something is not predictable we should just ignore it even though it looks like ti will grow into a lunch eating monster ?

You know I can understand this mentality from those who supported Bush though...
 
But the CBO is biased and we have the best healthcare ever.

It is absolutly inhuman to profit in exorbatant amounts oiff the suffering of fellow human beings.

To make a living helping them is one thing but to make a fortune off denying them help is just unconcienable.

How anyone can defend our current helath care system is beyond me.
 
Dungheap said:
Chap - For more detail on the CBO methodology go here:

http://cbo.gov/ftpdocs/89xx/doc8947/01-31-TechHealth.pdf
Click to expand...

case in point.. that document is 30pages long.. yet they start a graph on year 1 for predictions? I don't have time to read thru this now but ill take a look latter.

good rule of thumb... question everything.. regardless of what professional it comes from.. doctors are not always right, CBO analysts are not always right.. etc.
 
Chapdog said:
makes you question the CBO.. (which i already do on regular basis) they are DEFINITELY not on the up and up with allot of there 'predictions' Seems they have ulterior motives on a regular basis since they don’t use fundamental financial and economic theory and practice in some of there pictures they paint.

Some eat it up however… like trusting a doctor like they are god..
Click to expand...


You looked at one chart and assumed they have a flawed methodology. I provided the full report. I can't imagine that you have taken the time to review it in a matter of three minutes to make such bold statements about their predictions.

Feel free to criticize but at least take the time to understand what it is you are criticizing.
 
uscitizen said:
So if something is not predictable we should just ignore it even though it looks like ti will grow into a lunch eating monster ?

You know I can understand this mentality from those who supported Bush though...
Click to expand...

And only the left would get behind bad news that can't be proven.

A graph says it! It must be so! Let's raise taxes on the middle class in order to pay for an expensive government program that will change the results of a graph that isn't based in reality!
 
Chapdog said:
case in point.. that document is 30pages long.. yet they start a graph on year 1 for predictions? I don't have time to read thru this now but ill take a look latter.

good rule of thumb... question everything.. regardless of what professional it comes from.. doctors are not always right, CBO analysts are not always right.. etc.
Click to expand...


Just to let you know Chap, I pulled that graph from the middle of the report. It is figure 5. They go through historical spending first and then get to projected spending.
 
With healthcare, I believe the rule of the marketplace is the key, not government control. Not to sound ironic, but hear me out, I could support some kind of subsides for people making under 25,000 a year, truly poor people, to buy private insurance, Some kind of nice tax rebate for purchasing your own plan above that income bracket. The more people in this market, the lower prices will go, and through increased competition quality could be increased further. If the government takes over, bureaucratic glitches will result in decreased quality, increased delays, and more fatalities.
 
I think we need to do something about healthcare. but so far all the plans i have seen are faulty. they predict costs that from common sense stand point are way under represented. So say hillary convinces country to accept healthcare.. she does it by using complex financial to deflate the costs.

guess what in 5years u got your back against the wall because congress is bickering about how can they pay this healthcare cost.. antiquated healthcare equipment.. striking nurse unions... doctors leaving in droves back to there native countries..


its a dangerous game to play with faulty assumptions on healthcare costs. This needs to be an open and honest plan that we build together.. insurance companies, doctors, unions, tax payers.. etc. all the stake holders
 
gonzojournals said:
And only the left would get behind bad news that can't be proven.

A graph says it! It must be so! Let's raise taxes on the middle class in order to pay for an expensive government program that will change the results of a graph that isn't based in reality!
Click to expand...


Gonzo, surely you have a reason to believe that, despite all evidence to the contrary, healthcare spending will not continue to increase at or near the current rate of growth. Right? I mean, you have something to hang your hat on for that notion don't you?

Look at the historical data. Healthcare spending has tripled as a percentage of GDP over the past 30-40 years and the percentage of GDP has been increasing at a faster rate more recently than in the past.
 
WRL said:
With healthcare, I believe the rule of the marketplace is the key, not government control. Not to sound ironic, but hear me out, I could support some kind of subsides for people making under 25,000 a year, truly poor people, to buy private insurance, Some kind of nice tax rebate for purchasing your own plan above that income bracket. The more people in this market, the lower prices will go, and through increased competition quality could be increased further. If the government takes over, bureaucratic glitches will result in decreased quality, increased delays, and more fatalities.
Click to expand...


But WRL, unless the government mandates that health insurance companies have to provide insurance to all comers your idea is a non-starter.
 
Two words people: Soylent Green. It will solve our "health care" problems and solve world hunger all at the same time.
 
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