The current conventional wisdom is that Barack Obama has already won the presidency and John McCain should go back to one of his numerous houses to contemplate his many mistakes. Of course, a year ago, which seems more like a century now, the pundits were convinced that Rudy Giuliani would decisively defeat Hillary Clinton for the White House because he could say "9/11" more times per minute than she could. McCain was written off as road kill. The only problem was that the voters hadn't had their say yet. While voting has in fact started in some states, it won't be over until Nov. 4 at the earliest. This situation creates a problem for the press: how do you act like there is still a race going on when in your superior wisdom you know it is over. Still, no reporter has forgotten the Dewey Defeats Truman photo, even reporters who hadn't been born in 1948.
An interesting read, don't know what to make of it, maybe you can offer some opinion.
On a closely related topic, on election evening 2004, the battle went on for hours. In 2000, it went on for 36 days. That makes for great television. What happens if it is all over at 7 P.M. Eastern Time on election night? That is when the polls close in Virginia. If the Virginia exit polls, which are likely to be announced at 7:01 P.M., show a blowout for Obama, all the pundits will realize that the show is over, as there is no plausible way for McCain to get to 270 electoral votes without Virginia. Ditto North Carolina, where the polls close at 7:30 P.M. Are the anchors and experts all supposed to pretend they don't know what is going on? But if they call the election at 4:01 P.M. Pacific Time, millions of people won't bother to vote. Clearly they have a problem. If millions of people in the Midwest and West don't vote--especially people who were planning to vote for the loser, it could affect large numbers of downticket races.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
An interesting read, don't know what to make of it, maybe you can offer some opinion.
On a closely related topic, on election evening 2004, the battle went on for hours. In 2000, it went on for 36 days. That makes for great television. What happens if it is all over at 7 P.M. Eastern Time on election night? That is when the polls close in Virginia. If the Virginia exit polls, which are likely to be announced at 7:01 P.M., show a blowout for Obama, all the pundits will realize that the show is over, as there is no plausible way for McCain to get to 270 electoral votes without Virginia. Ditto North Carolina, where the polls close at 7:30 P.M. Are the anchors and experts all supposed to pretend they don't know what is going on? But if they call the election at 4:01 P.M. Pacific Time, millions of people won't bother to vote. Clearly they have a problem. If millions of people in the Midwest and West don't vote--especially people who were planning to vote for the loser, it could affect large numbers of downticket races.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
