If Iowa Caucus were Held Tonight, Edwards would Win

C

Cypress

Well-known member
The Iowa Independent Newspaper: If Caucus Were Held Tonight, Edwards Would Win

Since most polls are unable to capture the complex nature of the Iowa caucuses, Iowa Independent has taken to using a less conventional methodology to try and answer the question: "If the caucuses were held tonight, what would be the results?"

Campaigns were evaluated based on impressions we received from activists, everyday caucus-goers, event attendees, and pundits about the quality of each campaign's on-the-ground organization, the likelihood of each candidate's supporters actually attending a caucus, second choice support, and -- at the most basic level -- gut feelings and guesses.
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Interestingly, their conclusions are pretty much the inverse of what most polls are telling us right now.

1. John Edwards -- Edwards started about a year ago with the best organization in Iowa, and most of the foundation he built here is still in place. Although concerns persist that his sharpening rhetoric may be alienating a few of his earliest supporters, his solid performance at the Jefferson Jackson dinner, his endorsement from Caucus 4 Priorities (and the potential 10,000 caucus-goers it could bring him), and his ongoing commitment to retail politicking keep him in the top spot -- for now.

2. Barack Obama -- Obama's organization was fairly inconsistent over the summer, with some counties getting a lot of attention and others getting barely any. Still, his campaign's ability to build crowds -- as evidenced by his huge and geographically diverse group of supporters at the Jefferson Jackson dinner -- are as good a measure of his strength as anything. And as Clinton continues to receive sharper attacks from Edwards and subtler attacks from Obama himself, the Illinois Senator could move up in the coming weeks -- particularly on news of his United Auto Workers endorsement. As things stand now, he would still place second behind Edwards.

3. Hillary Clinton -- Different sources tell vastly different stories about the Clinton campaign in Iowa. Some expect it to flop completely, but others point to poll numbers showing Clinton in the top spot among Democratic candidates in Iowa. All that said, her aura of inevitability has been all but shattered by increased criticism over the past few weeks, and she seems to lack significant second choice support. And her latest swing through Iowa highlighted her energy policy, something which may not resonate among working class women, which continues to be her key demographic. Frankly, although the polls show Clinton in first place in Iowa, many of us have been hard pressed to find solid Clinton supporters whose names have not already appeared on a campaign press release.
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http://iowaindependent.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=E92FDB75E39BA643A34748E36C63A04F?diaryId=1472
 
that's funny shit, since most people have break girl a distant third.
Lets invent another way to look at it.
How bout polling just union workers. BAJAHAHAHH
 
Topspin said:
that's funny shit, since most people have break girl a distant third.
Lets invent another way to look at it.
How bout polling just union workers. BAJAHAHAHH
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And at this time in the primary season the polls had Kerry a distant 4th. Remember Dean was expected to win Iowa and when he didn't he gave a mighty Yowlp. Kerry was not projected in any poll in November 2003 to be the Democratic Nominee.
 
Desh said:
I think Edwards would make a fine president.
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I think he might well. I'm also beginning to think that he has more of a chance than the pundits have been giving him.

Just for the record, this here Green Party voter will likely react to the Dems' nominee as follows. If the Democratic nominee is:

Hillary Clinton -- I will vote for my party's candidate. She's too pro-war for me to ever support her, alas. I wish it weren't so.

Barack Obama -- About a 60% chance I'd vote for Obama in the general. I won't commit myself yet but I do like the man, even though I disagree with him on some important points.

John Edwards -- I would almost certainly vote for Edwards. So would most Greens, in my experience. This guy puts the pop back into populism.

Dennis Kucinich -- In this exceedingly unlikely circumstance, not only would I vote for the Democrat but I'd probably switch my party affiliation and volunteer for his campaign.

:cof1:
 
this is stupid, it doesn't explain their methodology at all. Is this of registered voters? Is this just a state wide random poll? Is this a poll of LIKELY PRIMARY VOTERS? (which is what we actually want to look for?)
 
Edwards is the biggest loser in the election. By far the worst candidate out of all of them, besides Duncan/Tancredo. Populism died with the retarded farmers who wanted to destroy our economy.
 
Grind said:
this is stupid, it doesn't explain their methodology at all. Is this of registered voters? Is this just a state wide random poll? Is this a poll of LIKELY PRIMARY VOTERS? (which is what we actually want to look for?)
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Its completely unscientific and non-quantitative. And that has to be taken into account.

Its just another way of looking at the caucus, since polls are so unreliable with regard to the complex caucus process.
 
if the national were today Edwards would get his clock cleaned.
Hillary is not dean, please don't wish Kerry on us.
Could Clinton lose yes though its very probable she will win.
 
It's entirely possible I could vote for Edwards in a general election against Guliani if he tuned up his anti-war talk and toned down the class warfare business a little.
 
Hey, its Iowa 2004 all over again! Remember when Dean, who I thought would win the friggin primary finished not just second but third?!? That would be awesome if it happened again. Incidentally, Edwards was the surprising 2nd place finisher in that contest.
 
Cypress said:
Its completely unscientific and non-quantitative. And that has to be taken into account.

Its just another way of looking at the caucus, since polls are so unreliable with regard to the complex caucus process.
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k so it's bullshit.
 
Warren said:
It's entirely possible I could vote for Edwards in a general election against Guliani if he tuned up his anti-war talk and toned down the class warfare business a little.
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I'm not really sure what this class warfare stuff means.

Edwards has made an issue about the power of lobbyists and special interests running Washington, DC. I think nearly everyone recognizes that's a problem. He's made an issue about the impacts of flawed NAFTA-style trade agreements and how they largely serve special interests and not the interests of working americans. He's offered a very modest idea about universal healthcare that doesn't even come close to the type of universal healthcare offered in every develope nation on the planet, outside the United States. I hardly see these ideas as radical.

Even Ron Paul, and Mike Huckabee have made an issue about NAFTA-style trade being the result of corrupting corporate interests, and Huckabee in particular has made an issue ot the "two americas" theme, and the squeezing of middle class america.
 
OrnotBitwise said:
I think he might well. I'm also beginning to think that he has more of a chance than the pundits have been giving him.

Just for the record, this here Green Party voter will likely react to the Dems' nominee as follows. If the Democratic nominee is:

Hillary Clinton -- I will vote for my party's candidate. She's too pro-war for me to ever support her, alas. I wish it weren't so.

Barack Obama -- About a 60% chance I'd vote for Obama in the general. I won't commit myself yet but I do like the man, even though I disagree with him on some important points.

John Edwards -- I would almost certainly vote for Edwards. So would most Greens, in my experience. This guy puts the pop back into populism.

Dennis Kucinich -- In this exceedingly unlikely circumstance, not only would I vote for the Democrat but I'd probably switch my party affiliation and volunteer for his campaign.

:cof1:
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Weirdly enough I agree with pretty much everything Ornot said here.
 
They are all elite--and don't care about us as long as we pay taxes for socialists programs.

How does it feel to be meat?

THATS RIGHT!!

If you don't like Ron Paul, at least enough to consider casting a vote his way---you have no idea what freedom is---and you should be asshamed of yourself.
 
Edwards might be the only dem I wouldn't vote for.
Luckily that phoney poser will never make the ticket.
 
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