Iraq in 20 years

O

Onceler

New member
Bush has a grand vision, and I think he really believes it: a strong, self-sustaining democracy in the heart of the Middle East, with a strong military to thwart enemies & a stable government. He has basically said that our commitment will last until such an Iraq exists.

I hate to be a Debbie Downer on this vision, but this would not be unlike the DNC expecting Hillary to drop out gracefully before the PA primary, or a Miami Dolphins fan hoping for a Superbowl run in '08. Could either happen? Sure, but it is EXTREMELY unlikely. And yet, that's what we're betting on.

The fact is, whether we leave tomorrow or in 2018 or in 2028, we will likely leave a country that will be very vulnerable to all kinds of strife & attack, by a range of groups that hate the U.S., hate each other & will have ample motivation to devote as many resources as possible to creating chaos & unrest. We seem to be operating under some guideline that there is a way to reduce the # of potential terrorists & enemies, when it's just as likely that they'll be even stronger & more numerous when we actually leave, whenver that is.

In short, it's a pipe dream; it's the product of an active imagination, that has little ability to see any other possibilities that might conflict with its purity. This admin has famously abandoned contingency planning in the lead-up to Iraq, and I don't think they have anything up their sleeve now. They're hoping for the 1 in 100 possibility.
 
I wouldn't say China's the new U.S. just yet, they have a ways to go.

Iraq has only one hope for democratization--if any at all. The only solution, as I see it, is as follows:

1. Democracy must come from within. We can't hope for democracy like we have it for a long time. Even Russia has been "democratic" for nearly twenty years now and they have a long, long way to go to ascertain any type of legitimate non-autocratic democracy. Iraqis have to want to form a democracy, and they're gonna do it their way.

2. The U.S. must leave and the U.N. and NATO must step in. The difference is between military bodies handling reconstruction, and peacekeepers. The former is not trained for it, and the latter has done it many times. With this, the feeling of American imperialism in the country will wither and Iraqis will, in time, take on their own responsibility.

If we continue on the present course, or don't delicately handle the situation, Iraq in 20 years will be a country still engulfed in a civil war between Islamic sects, which will help promote and embed terrorist camps and further propagate the terrorist threat--and maybe even terrorist acts. Without international support and encouragement for Iraq, it will become another Afghanistan.



Bill
 
I think I agree with all that Bill.

We cannot buy or force democracy at gunpoint.

And a multinational group besides the coalition of the willing would work better I think.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top