Is Putin Giving Up Crimea?

Guno צְבִי

Guno צְבִי

We fight, We win
Interesting posit , Thoughts?


Explosions on Tuesday morning destroyed the Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dnieper River in southern Ukraine.
Ukraine and Russia blamed each other for the blasts.
Those who believe Russia was behind the destruction speculate that it shows President Vladimir Putin may be willing to sacrifice Crimea, since the reservoir is a major water source for the peninsula.


"The North Crimean Canal, which delivers 85 percent of the water to Crimea, takes water from Nova Kakhovka. Without that, Crimea is not sustainable in the long run," Anders Åslund, an economist and adjunct professor at Georgetown University, told Newsweek.

He added that the dam's destruction could "destroy Crimea's agriculture.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...h?cvid=0d8ee720c5b6494b9dac2ff51faa2f7a&ei=11
 
guno said:
Interesting posit , Thoughts?


Explosions on Tuesday morning destroyed the Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dnieper River in southern Ukraine.
Ukraine and Russia blamed each other for the blasts.
Those who believe Russia was behind the destruction speculate that it shows President Vladimir Putin may be willing to sacrifice Crimea, since the reservoir is a major water source for the peninsula.


"The North Crimean Canal, which delivers 85 percent of the water to Crimea, takes water from Nova Kakhovka. Without that, Crimea is not sustainable in the long run," Anders Åslund, an economist and adjunct professor at Georgetown University, told Newsweek.

He added that the dam's destruction could "destroy Crimea's agriculture.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...h?cvid=0d8ee720c5b6494b9dac2ff51faa2f7a&ei=11
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It does argue that the Ukrainians did it.
 
Nordberg said:
You guys missed the logic. Putin is not going to protect Crimea, so he is trashing it.
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Actually, Crimea is fairly easily defended. The Ukrainians have no amphibious assault capacity so the only way to take the virtually an island Crimea is across a narrow strip of land.

physical_map_of_the_crimea3520399776948756213.jpg


Given the general sloppy and marginal performance of both militaries engaged in this conflict, I don't see the Ukrainians taking Crimea if the Russians try to defend it even slightly.
 
Tinkerpeach said:
Ukranians more than likely did this
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That dam blew up from the inside, and the inside was controlled by the Russians. For the Ukrainians to do it, they would have to have slipped huge amounts of explosives deep into a dam controlled by the Russian Army, and then for some reason have evacuated all the Russian soldiers just before the explosion.
 
T. A. Gardner said:
Actually, Crimea is fairly easily defended. The Ukrainians have no amphibious assault capacity so the only way to take the virtually an island Crimea is across a narrow strip of land.
Click to expand...

If the Ukrainians can either capture Kherson, or at least move close enough to shell the main transportation corridors in Kherson, it will become very difficult to resupply Crimea. Russia might find itself in a situation where it cannot defend Crimea.

Capturing Kherson is both very possible, and not at all certain.

Around Armiansk the lines to get into Crimea are 6 miles long. That is not a complete choke point, and an attack is possible there without it being amphibious. It is possible but borderline. The Ukrainians have been shown to be willing to take risks, and this would be a risk.

The Russians seem to think it is possible, because they have built three trench lines across Crimea. They are preparing to defend parts of Crimea.
 
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