The U.S. strategy in Syria is unraveling, and it's playing right into the hands of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
Here's are the key dynamics on the ground: Islamic brigades are coalescing after the largest Islamist rebel brigades rejected the planned government-in-exile of the Western-backed Syrian National Council (SNC); al-Qaeda affiliate Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is expanding its territorial control by fighting Kurds and rebels; and Assad is laughing as ISIS goes after his enemies where he cannot.
Assad's strategy of not attacking the al-Qaeda groups — and even collaborating with them in certain districts — has worked astonishingly well, and the Obama administration has a lot to do with it.
The United States, rather than read the signals early on and arm the Syrian opposition when it was making substantial gains, allowed a vacuum to form and then fretted when that vacuum was filled by jihadists.
The U.S. was worried about the rise of Syria's Islamist rebels, which contributed to its unwillingness to arm the Supreme military council (i.e., the armed wing of the SNC), which had Islamists. That stance is now backfiring.
The situation in Syria is changing faster than the administration can keep up. U.S. support for moderate opposition groups is less than robust and has been hobbled by inconsistent resource allocation with stated goals.
The dysfunction can be seen in numbers of fighters: The CIA has trained fewer than 1,000 rebels while Iran and Hezbollah have trained more than 20,000 Assad militiamen and 20,000 “extremist” rebels fight with militant Islamist agendas, according to U.S. intelligence estimates.
At the moment Americas' preferred resolution involves peace talks at Geneva II, but that looks like a pipe dream since the strongest forces on the ground don't recognize the SNC.
Furthermore, the deal to disarm the Syrian regimes' chemical weapons gives Bashar al-Assad and his allies a boost while clipping American influence in the region.
http://www.businessinsider.com/obamas-failed-syria-strategy-2013-10#ixzz2mBBBZLHI
