Mcain's first intrade lead

[Topspin]

Mcain 50.8
Obama 49.8

 

[cawacko]

Mcain 50.8
Obama 49.8

For real? Obama was still up by 8 earlier in the week.

 

[Bonestorm]

For real? Obama was still up by 8 earlier in the week.

Intrade follows the polls. It's fairly silly to put any stock in it.

 

[Topspin]

dung you poor people are funny. It's a wagering site.

 

[Bonestorm]

dung you poor people are funny. It's a wagering site.

It's a wagering site with people wagering based on the polls. It follows the polls. It's a lagging, not leading, indicator. That is all.

 

[Topspin]

it's people putting their money on the line.
Some uneducated duffass like you saying it follows polls doesn't make it so.

 

[Bonestorm]

it's people putting their money on the line.
Some uneducated duffass like you saying it follows polls doesn't make it so.

OK, hotshot. Whatever. I'm a duffass. The fact that Intrade only now shows McCain with a lead, in response to the polls showing McCain with a lead for a few days, indicates that it follows the polls.

 

[Topspin]

it must suck to be poor

 

[Bonestorm]

it must suck to be poor

Nah, it's pretty cool.

 

[cawacko]

Money may follow the polls but money is non-partison. That's the beauty of betting.

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

Markets, if anything, are more accurate predictors of how the race will turn out than polls. Asking a bunch of people "Who do you think will win?" will tell you who will win better than asking a bunch of people "Who are you voting for?" Of course, the markets are effected by the polls. It'd be idiotic to bet against a huge poll lead. But they're also a lot smarter than the polls, and in a tight race they'll predict the outcome better. Obama has never been down on intrade before, and he better pick up pretty fast.