Mccain is +20 in latest Electoral Count

Yeah, I don't know which one is more reliable but they have had nothing to say to each other for quit a while in terms of their predictions...
 
Okay, but if you take out the toss-up states, he's still losing, and by the same decision as when he was leading by ten without toss-ups:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10

Taking out the toss ups to determine who will win is stupid. It's like deciding the winner only half way into election night.

And the truth is that the vast majority of the toss up states are not toss up states. Michigan and Pennsylvania will not go red this year. Ohio and Florida will probably go red, but even Ohio is in question. If Ohio didn't go red, McCain COULDN'T win and if Iowa goes blue--which is the consistent indication right now--then Obama would be breaking into states Kerry didn't win.

And if he does that two or three times (as the map currently shows him doing) he will win.
 
Looks like we're in the same old divided place we've been since Bush was elected. Has an electoral map ever looked exactly the same through presidential elections for such a long period of time before?
 
The Democrats have given up the Southeast consistently since the Clinton years are over. Gore not being able to win Arkansas and Tennessee was a big indicator of that, but I think it was partially a strategic flaw and not that he COULDN'T win those states.

And only this year might they break back into the Southwest again.

The Perot factor is one reason the democrats did not lose the South sooner, though.

A Democrat can't win in the South without Dixiecrat votes.

It's a tiny thing, but I'm interested to see if McCain is actually popular enough in New Hampshire to win back that state like Bush did in 2000. It probably won't decide the election, though.

I think the turning of Iowa back to blue is a really big deal, and I think it's B.S. to call Michigan a swing state just because of Reagan Democrats in metro Detroit. Michigan is a mess right now, and the state is being flooded with "We Just Can't Afford More of the Same" ads.

And they're working.
 
McCain win in NH ? I remember the clips of the old people falling asleep as his sparsely attended fally.
Pretty funny.
 
Watermark said:
Looks like we're in the same old divided place we've been since Bush was elected. Has an electoral map ever looked exactly the same through presidential elections for such a long period of time before?
Click to expand...

I don't know that they have. Tell me what you think the reason for the look of the map is.
 
leaningright said:
I don't know that they have. Tell me what you think the reason for the look of the map is.
Click to expand...

the root cause is extreme partisanship dividing our country.
imho this has been mainly driven by the right.
We seem to be in the middle of a neocon revolution.
 
uscitizen said:
the root cause is extreme partisanship dividing our country.
imho this has been mainly driven by the right.
We seem to be in the middle of a neocon revolution.
Click to expand...

I know that I am extremely partisan on subjects like abortion, gun control and general morality, the last of which neither party has a patent on. I am just not willing to give up my way of life to make room for the folks that want me to change. Maybe that makes me a bad person but as long as the democrats keep nominating people like Obama, Kerry, Gore, etc. I will not vote for them. But then I won't be voting for a republican for president this year. The last democrat I voted for (Bill Clinton) was OK, but I have been less than pleased with his court appointments.
 
uscitizen said:
Follow Newt, Rove, etc they actually speak of this revoloution.
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I like Newt and think he is much more moderate than Rove. The "win at all costs" gets people on both sides into trouble with me. Newt's Contract with America was a pretty good indicator that he was sincere whether one agreed with his politics or not. All Rove (read "Bush administration") can say is "9-11 changed everything." I don't agree.
 
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