McCain way up in polls, Obama way up in markets

[FUCK THE POLICE]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

243-274 for McCain

http://electoralmarkets.com/

311-227 leaning Obama



Conservatives will, of course, state that electoral markets are irrelevant (unless their guy goes back up in them).

Most of McCains gains in the polls were within the margin of error, and came from going from a tie to 1% ahead in a poll. If it turns into a trend I'd be worried, but with the current balance of things Obama could get as many margin of error victories tommorrow. The polls simply aren't precise enough to be reliable with such divided states. I think I'm going with the markets.

 

[cawacko]

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

243-274 for McCain

http://electoralmarkets.com/

311-227 leaning Obama



Conservatives will, of course, state that electoral markets are irrelevant (unless their guy goes back up in them).

Most of McCains gains in the polls were within the margin of error, and came from going from a tie to 1% ahead in a poll. If it turns into a trend I'd be worried, but with the current balance of things Obama could get as many margin of error victories tommorrow. The polls simply aren't precise enough to be reliable with such divided states. I think I'm going with the markets.

Follow the money.

http://www.intrade.com/

 

[Bonestorm]

Follow the money.

http://www.intrade.com/

The money follows the polls as I told you last week when McCain was leading on intrade. People are just reacting to Obama's gains over the past few days. Intrade is a lagging indicator.

 

[Jarod]

Those electoral polls are also about a week behind the general polls.

 

[FUCK THE POLICE]

The money follows the polls as I told you last week when McCain was leading on intrade. People are just reacting to Obama's gains over the past few days. Intrade is a lagging indicator.

That's an oversimplification. Markets get it right when polls fail. The markets predicted every single state correctly in the 2004 election right when the polls were way off and predicted a Kerry win. The wisdom of crowds works better than a poll that's usually off by three or four points. Markets are influenced by but aren't dependent on polls, and they are a more accurate overall indicator of who will actually win.