Mott the Hoople
Sweet Jane
Not much of a prediction as it’s pretty obvious that Harris will become our first lady President. I’m basing my prediction that Presidential elections are a referendum on the governance of the current party in power of the executive branch. The predictive metrics associated with whether the American public will favor the incumbent parties governance (currently Democrats) are currently significantly in favor of the incumbent party. So unless something dramatic happens to change those metrics I’m predicting Harris will win. I will also predict Harris will win the popular vote by at least 5 million votes and probably more. That’s not exactly a stretch as Republican Presidential candidates have only won the popular vote once in the last 8 presidential elections. I’m not predicting a landslide win in the electoral college but Harris should win more electoral votes than Biden did.
The one caveat that we all must be prepared for is that the Trump coalition already has plans in place to disrupt and/or discredit the election when he loses.
The irony of this election is that one of Trumps self proclaimed accomplishments as President was stacking SCOTUS with a super majority of reactionary conservatives who are hostile to women’s rights. This will play no small factor in Trumps losing as it has alienated many women and independent voters and Republicans have always needed Independent voters to break heavily for Republican candidates simply because Democrats have the greater numbers. Republicans need true independent voters to break 3-4:1 in favor of Republicans. True independents, by current polling are breaking in favor of Harris. Not a good sign for the Republican candidate (I.E. Trump). This can largely be attributed as a consequence of the Jan 6 2021 insurrection and the SCOTUS decision to deny women their fundamental human right to personal autonomy in making their own health care decisions.
The fact that the GOP is in the process of a generational change in its coalition and is divided into combating factions has lost them their traditional unity as they have now become the party of the circular firing squad.
Also, at the congressional level the GOP has become so divided that they are demonstrating a serious lack of ability to govern.
With these current conditions being the case my Prediction is for Harris to win.
The one caveat that we all must be prepared for is that the Trump coalition already has plans in place to disrupt and/or discredit the election when he loses.
The irony of this election is that one of Trumps self proclaimed accomplishments as President was stacking SCOTUS with a super majority of reactionary conservatives who are hostile to women’s rights. This will play no small factor in Trumps losing as it has alienated many women and independent voters and Republicans have always needed Independent voters to break heavily for Republican candidates simply because Democrats have the greater numbers. Republicans need true independent voters to break 3-4:1 in favor of Republicans. True independents, by current polling are breaking in favor of Harris. Not a good sign for the Republican candidate (I.E. Trump). This can largely be attributed as a consequence of the Jan 6 2021 insurrection and the SCOTUS decision to deny women their fundamental human right to personal autonomy in making their own health care decisions.
The fact that the GOP is in the process of a generational change in its coalition and is divided into combating factions has lost them their traditional unity as they have now become the party of the circular firing squad.
Also, at the congressional level the GOP has become so divided that they are demonstrating a serious lack of ability to govern.
With these current conditions being the case my Prediction is for Harris to win.