volsrock1
Verified User
The broken leg problem
Our model is pessimistic for Biden. But the reality is probably worse.
www.natesilver.net
NATE SILVER: ODDS ONLY 28% HE CAN WIN RE-ELECTION
- Thread starter volsrock1
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www.natesilver.net
christiefan915
Catalyst
I'm glad you posted that. Here's a screenshot of 538's prediction on the morning of the 2016 election.The broken leg problem
Our model is pessimistic for Biden. But the reality is probably worse.
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christiefan915
Catalyst
And here's a pic from RCP at the time of the 2016 election. Be sure to check out the link, the file was too big to post.
www.realclearpolling.com
2016 General Election Polls: Trump vs. Clinton | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data from the 2016 General Election, focusing on the Trump vs. Clinton matchup. Gain valuable insights into key trends and electoral dynamics with RealClearPolling.
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But he has been right way more often than not. WAY more. Biden is dead in the water IMO. But as always time will tell. He has been losing massive amounts of support along a wide range of demographics. Dont worry Christie,....you are one of the good ones, I'll see to it you get to go to one of the "good" camps. Just a little re education for you,....no rock pile hard labor for you.And here's a pic from RCP at the time of the 2016 election. Be sure to check out the link, the file was too big to post.
View attachment 27653
2016 General Election Polls: Trump vs. Clinton | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data from the 2016 General Election, focusing on the Trump vs. Clinton matchup. Gain valuable insights into key trends and electoral dynamics with RealClearPolling.
christiefan915
Catalyst
Thanks.....I think. 
It's just that I don't look at polls this far out as being more accurate than a snapshot of what people are saying today.
I want to add that 538's major failed prediction in 2016 is what made me so cautious.
It's just that I don't look at polls this far out as being more accurate than a snapshot of what people are saying today.
I want to add that 538's major failed prediction in 2016 is what made me so cautious.
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Yep.....polls are basically a snapshot. In no way are they 100% accurate or even close. Having said that,...they probably are our best indicator on which way an election is trending. I like to focus in on the all important swing states and disregard a lot of the rest. Heavy left or heavy right states are of no interest to me when looking at polling data.Thanks.....I think.
It's just that I don't look at polls this far out as being more accurate than a snapshot of what people are saying today.
I want to add that 538's major failed prediction in 2016 is what made me so cautious.
TOP
Retired Teacher
it certainly is looking more and more like that every...single....day...
It's a very simple question... Who is better for our country? Who can best clean up this mess from the last four years?
That's not Joe...or Kamala...or from what I've seen lately...Newsom...not ever Newsom...I guess I never paid too much attention before, but what a slimeball...It's as creepy listening to him as it it is Joe or Kamala...
ExpressLane
Verified User
I disagree, Brandon got 81,000,000 votes and that was before he allowed 9 million new potential voters into this country.
Ballot harvesting will go on at an unprecedented level and they will be counted. In states like Minnesota where long after the election votes are counted and the winners are installed, the non existant addresses and fraudulent names are uncovered. Much of this behavior can be documented in the 2008 Franken-Coleman Senate race.
Ballot harvesting will go on at an unprecedented level and they will be counted. In states like Minnesota where long after the election votes are counted and the winners are installed, the non existant addresses and fraudulent names are uncovered. Much of this behavior can be documented in the 2008 Franken-Coleman Senate race.
ExpressLane
Verified User
You forget that Donald Trump notoriously under polls. People like me don't talk with pollsters.
TOP
Retired Teacher
There's been a whole lot of lying going on...but as always, the truth will be revealed...and everyone will be held responsible....
It’s the poll trends that matter and the vegetable’s polls have been trending downward for a long time.
Even many Democratic money people are no longer donating.
christiefan915
Catalyst
Explain. I don't talk with pollsters either.
Mott the Hoople
Sweet Jane
ROTFLMAO!! Nate Silver has made a reputation out of being right exactly once. LOLThe broken leg problem
Our model is pessimistic for Biden. But the reality is probably worse.
He only looks at highly flawed and biased stats that are so unrepresentative that his predictions are essentially worthless.
There are other data points besides polls that are far more accurate in their predictive value than polls.
Looking at objective metrics, recent voting trends, demographics, etc,.
Most of those are are showing Trump will not only lose but lose badly. Vast numbers of voters will be voting for Biden on the “Anyone but Trump” basis. The mid term elections show Trump has alienated Independents by a 4-1 margin. Republicans being the smaller party needs Independents to vote for their candidate by a 2-1 margin to have any chance of Trump winning. Currently Trump has a 1-4 margin with independents meaning he is losing independents badly and Trump can’t win without Independents support. Then factor in that the GOP over the last 50 years prior to Trump was solidly united without divisions among its major factions so there was little infighting among the GOP factions.Trump has changed that by excluding the traditional business conservatives from the table for a populist agenda and has seriously wrecked the GOP coalition so that now the GOP has more infighting among its factions than Democrats who, again, are a significantly larger political party than the GOP. So by demographics the numbers for Trump just aren’t there.
Then there are objective metrics that have demonstrated predictive value. Of the thirteen key metrics Trump has two metrics in his favor to Bidens nine. Trump will need to pick up four more metrics to predict his election as was the case in 2016. That’s currently looking like it’s not going to happen for Trump as was the case in 2020 when he lost.
So right now it looks like the only thing Biden has to do to win is to not die.
My guess is that Nate Silvers 28% will be wildly wrong.
Mott the Hoople
Sweet Jane
You’re essentially correct in that using polling data to predict outcomes of elections are highly unreliable.And here's a pic from RCP at the time of the 2016 election. Be sure to check out the link, the file was too big to post.
View attachment 27653
2016 General Election Polls: Trump vs. Clinton | RealClearPolling
Explore poll data from the 2016 General Election, focusing on the Trump vs. Clinton matchup. Gain valuable insights into key trends and electoral dynamics with RealClearPolling.
Mott the Hoople
Sweet Jane
Really? Back that up. What demographics has he lost who would vote for Trump? It’s certainly not registered Democrats who outnumber registered Republicans. It certainly hasn’t been Minorities. Independents broke from the GOP by a 4-1margin for Democrats in the midterms. There has been no significant change there. So what Demgraphics has Biden lost that would vote for Trump in enough numbers to swing the election in his favor? It certainly isn’t the business community. Trump alienated them by excluding them from the table to a point where they know they would not have a voice at the table in another Trump administration. So who are these demographics that will break for Trump?But he has been right way more often than not. WAY more. Biden is dead in the water IMO. But as always time will tell. He has been losing massive amounts of support along a wide range of demographics. Dont worry Christie,....you are one of the good ones, I'll see to it you get to go to one of the "good" camps. Just a little re education for you,....no rock pile hard labor for you.
Not liking your parties candidate is not the same as voting for the opposing party’s candidate.
There will be plenty of voters who, as much as they are not happy with Biden, will suck it up and vote for him than Trump. I’m one of them. My vote will be cast against Trump. As long as Biden can breath he will still be a far better option than a neo-fascist like Trump.
You know the thing I find very interesting about Trump supporters is the amazing level of ignorance they have in regards to American history.