FUCK THE POLICE
911 EVERY DAY
http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/columnist/raasch/2009-03-12-newpolitics_N.htm
New Jersey, Virginia could be part of GOP recovery plan
By Chuck Raasch, Gannett National Writer
WASHINGTON — Will the road to redemption for Republicans again lead through New Jersey and Virginia? Democrats could lose both governorships in November if current conditions hold.
The Republican Revolution of 1994 was presaged in 1993 by Republicans Christine Todd Whitman and George Allen winning in New Jersey and Virginia, respectively.
The economic stakes are higher now and the political calculus may turn out far differently in 2009. It's not clear whether President Barack Obama will be seen as overreaching on his policies or underestimating his political foes, as Bill Clinton did in the Democrats' collapse of 1993 and 1994.
But there is no hiding that Gov. Jon Corzine is in trouble in New Jersey, where he has spent $105 million to win U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections since 2000. Incumbent chief executives often pay for tough economic times, and Corzine could become a casualty of the recession.
A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday showed Corzine trailing former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, 46-37%, even though six of 10 respondents said they knew little about Christie, the front-runner for his party's nomination.
Much of the Christie vote appears to be a negative reaction to Corzine. But the more New Jersey voters know about Christie, who forged a reputation as tough on political corruption as U.S. attorney, the more they like him, according to Quinnipiac's pollsters.
"There are no good numbers for Governor Jon Corzine in this poll," Quinnipiac's Clay F. Richards said.
Still, observers don't count Corzine out. Since the '80s, New Jersey has trended Democratic in statewide elections. No Republican presidential candidate has won the state since George H. W. Bush in 1988. And Christie must first win a June primary before challenging Corzine.
Analyst Nathan Gonzales of the Rothenberg Political Report says the election is Corzine's to lose, but that Democrats "ought to be worried whether they can hold this governorship."
Virginia is a more recent Democrat-trending state. Obama was the first Democrat to win Virginia since 1964, and Democrats have won the last two governorships. But Virginia was solidly Republican not that long ago, and it has had a recent history of changing party control in the governor's office every eight years.
Rothenberg points out that New Jersey restricts campaign donations from outside the state more than Virginia does. That alone will bring more focus onto Virginia.
Gov. Tim Kaine is constitutionally barred from seeking re-election, and the Democrats have a tough nomination fight underway.
Veteran legislators Brian Moran and R. Creigh Deeds are in a primary against Terry McAuliffe, one of the most prolific political fundraisers in American history. The former Clinton fundraiser and Democratic National Committee chairman is know for his relentlessness. He once wrestled an alligator for a political donation. He could vastly outspend Deeds and Moran leading into the June 9 primary, and even if he doesn't win, he could bloody the eventual survivor.
Meanwhile, Republicans are coalescing behind Bob McDonnell, who narrowly beat Deeds in the 2005 attorney general's race. Republicans have immense motivation, nationally and statewide, to reverse recent failures in Virginia. More than any state, it epitomized Obama's fracturing of a winning GOP Electoral College map.
Simply put, Virginia will be a psychological as well as political boost for the winning party leading into the 2012 presidential election.
New Jersey, Virginia could be part of GOP recovery plan
By Chuck Raasch, Gannett National Writer
WASHINGTON — Will the road to redemption for Republicans again lead through New Jersey and Virginia? Democrats could lose both governorships in November if current conditions hold.
The Republican Revolution of 1994 was presaged in 1993 by Republicans Christine Todd Whitman and George Allen winning in New Jersey and Virginia, respectively.
The economic stakes are higher now and the political calculus may turn out far differently in 2009. It's not clear whether President Barack Obama will be seen as overreaching on his policies or underestimating his political foes, as Bill Clinton did in the Democrats' collapse of 1993 and 1994.
But there is no hiding that Gov. Jon Corzine is in trouble in New Jersey, where he has spent $105 million to win U.S. Senate and gubernatorial elections since 2000. Incumbent chief executives often pay for tough economic times, and Corzine could become a casualty of the recession.
A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday showed Corzine trailing former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, 46-37%, even though six of 10 respondents said they knew little about Christie, the front-runner for his party's nomination.
Much of the Christie vote appears to be a negative reaction to Corzine. But the more New Jersey voters know about Christie, who forged a reputation as tough on political corruption as U.S. attorney, the more they like him, according to Quinnipiac's pollsters.
"There are no good numbers for Governor Jon Corzine in this poll," Quinnipiac's Clay F. Richards said.
Still, observers don't count Corzine out. Since the '80s, New Jersey has trended Democratic in statewide elections. No Republican presidential candidate has won the state since George H. W. Bush in 1988. And Christie must first win a June primary before challenging Corzine.
Analyst Nathan Gonzales of the Rothenberg Political Report says the election is Corzine's to lose, but that Democrats "ought to be worried whether they can hold this governorship."
Virginia is a more recent Democrat-trending state. Obama was the first Democrat to win Virginia since 1964, and Democrats have won the last two governorships. But Virginia was solidly Republican not that long ago, and it has had a recent history of changing party control in the governor's office every eight years.
Rothenberg points out that New Jersey restricts campaign donations from outside the state more than Virginia does. That alone will bring more focus onto Virginia.
Gov. Tim Kaine is constitutionally barred from seeking re-election, and the Democrats have a tough nomination fight underway.
Veteran legislators Brian Moran and R. Creigh Deeds are in a primary against Terry McAuliffe, one of the most prolific political fundraisers in American history. The former Clinton fundraiser and Democratic National Committee chairman is know for his relentlessness. He once wrestled an alligator for a political donation. He could vastly outspend Deeds and Moran leading into the June 9 primary, and even if he doesn't win, he could bloody the eventual survivor.
Meanwhile, Republicans are coalescing behind Bob McDonnell, who narrowly beat Deeds in the 2005 attorney general's race. Republicans have immense motivation, nationally and statewide, to reverse recent failures in Virginia. More than any state, it epitomized Obama's fracturing of a winning GOP Electoral College map.
Simply put, Virginia will be a psychological as well as political boost for the winning party leading into the 2012 presidential election.