New York Times/Sienna poll: Donald Trump outperforming 2016 and 2020 in the Midwest
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ziggy
Verified User
Nate Silver gives Trump new probability high of victory
Election analyst Nate Silver gave former President Donald Trump a record-high probability of winning against Vice President Kamala Harris.
The bump came partially as a result of Sunday’s New York Times/Sienna poll, which Silver has as one of the highest-rated pollsters. Silver’s newest rating has Trump with a 63.8% probability, compared to Harris’s 36%. The former president is also favored to win every swing state.
Silver’s current odds give Trump a 64% chance of winning Pennsylvania, 54% for Michigan, 53% for Wisconsin, 77% for Arizona, 75% for North Carolina, 68% for Georgia, and 61% for Nevada.
The new probability total is a nearly five-point boost for Trump since Thursday, when he was given a 58.2% probability, itself a boost from the 52.4% a week prior. The prediction shows a further eroding of Harris’s honeymoon support since President Joe Biden dropped out in July.
www.washingtonexaminer.com
Election analyst Nate Silver gave former President Donald Trump a record-high probability of winning against Vice President Kamala Harris.
The bump came partially as a result of Sunday’s New York Times/Sienna poll, which Silver has as one of the highest-rated pollsters. Silver’s newest rating has Trump with a 63.8% probability, compared to Harris’s 36%. The former president is also favored to win every swing state.
Silver’s current odds give Trump a 64% chance of winning Pennsylvania, 54% for Michigan, 53% for Wisconsin, 77% for Arizona, 75% for North Carolina, 68% for Georgia, and 61% for Nevada.
The new probability total is a nearly five-point boost for Trump since Thursday, when he was given a 58.2% probability, itself a boost from the 52.4% a week prior. The prediction shows a further eroding of Harris’s honeymoon support since President Joe Biden dropped out in July.
Nate Silver gives Trump new probability high of victory - Washington Examiner
The election analyst zeroed in on perceptions that Harris is too progressive as especially alarming for Democrats.
www.washingtonexaminer.com
BartenderElite
Verified User
It's so weird that so many people support Trump.
He's really losing it these days. He sounds crazy.
He's really losing it these days. He sounds crazy.
Knuckles Neanderthal
Interdimensional
Can't beat that with a stick. 
volsrock1
Verified User
means the person running against him IS REALLY BAD
BartenderElite
Verified User
She's not, though. She has a really accomplished career, and has some good ideas for the country.
She's a minority, and a woman. That's a tough uphill in America, still.
PostmodernProphet
fully immersed in faith..
and yet, in the swing states, they prefer him to VP HarmUs.......
BartenderElite
Verified User
The swing states are even - unless you're only cherrypicking polls.
PostmodernProphet
fully immersed in faith..
she has goals but cannot articulate a path from where we are to where she claims she wants to be......especially since she's responsible for where we are.........most voters are not as stupid as you......they notice that.......
BartenderElite
Verified User
Biden was actually down in the polls. Now, it's an even race.
So, about nothing gained. My god, the Dems are worthless. You can't beat a fucking convicted felon?!
PostmodernProphet
fully immersed in faith..
I am looking at RCP averages......the opposite of cherry picking.......
look at Arizona........Harris has only won one poll against Trump since she replaced Biden.......
in Nevada her lead is under 1% and she has slipped from her peak steadily since July.....
in Pennsylvania she's only won one poll, tied in four.....
in North Carolina Trump has won the last four....
in her best states MI and WI her support is declining.......
https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college
in their electoral college map they show she must win both Nevada and Georgia.......if she loses either she can't reach 270.......
volsrock1
Verified User
Name 3
BartenderElite
Verified User
Like I said: the polls are even.
Btw, "winning" a poll means it's not within the margin of error.
PostmodernProphet
fully immersed in faith..
if losing is consistent it's probably not an error..........polls show movement........HarmUs is moving to the basement.....
BartenderElite
Verified User
The basement?
Okay. Guess we'll see on that one. "Wishful thinking" is also kind of a thing, I've heard.
PostmodernProphet
fully immersed in faith..
volsrock1
Verified User
name 3