signalmankenneth
Verified User
More like a thud than a bounce and the assassination attempt on Trump didn't help him either?!!
Presidential candidates tend to enjoy a post-convention 'bounce' — but Trump remains tied with Kamala Harris at 46%.
One of the major themes of last week’s Republican National Convention was that the party’s three-time nominee, former President Donald Trump, had been transformed — in a good way — by the assassination attempt a few days earlier in Butler, Pa.
“When Trump stood up after being shot in the face, bloodied, and put his hand up — that was a transformation,” conservative pundit Tucker Carlson said while onstage in Milwaukee. “Everything was different after that moment. Everything. This convention is different. The nation is different. The world is different. Donald Trump is different.”
But according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll, most Americans disagree. Just 28% say that the shooting has changed Trump “for the better” — while a majority (51%) say either that it hasn’t changed him at all (44%) or that it has changed him “for the worse” (7%).
The survey of 1,743 U.S. adults was conducted from July 19 to 22, immediately following the convention. Its results suggest that one of the most eventful periods in recent U.S. history — a period that began with the assassination attempt, continued with the vice-presidential nomination of Sen. JD Vance of Ohio and ended with President Biden dropping out of the race — has had little effect on Trump’s political standing.
In both 2016 and 2020, Trump won less than 47% of the vote; that still appears to be his ceiling. The last time a Yahoo News/YouGov survey pitted Trump against Harris, in early July, he polled at 47% and she polled at 45%.
Trump’s favorable rating has increased slightly (from 39% to 43%) since the previous Yahoo News/YouGov survey, which was conducted after his June 27 debate with Biden. His unfavorable rating has fallen by a few points as well (from 56% to 53%).
But this mostly reflects a reversion to Trump’s normal numbers rather than some sort of new breakthrough; his favorable rating was actually higher in January (45%), March (45%) and April (44%). Republicans and Republican-leaning independents — among whom Trump’s favorable rating ticked up from 83% to 88% — account for most of the shift.
The shooting, the convention and the VP pick do appear to have had one statistically significant impact: a 5-point increase (from 21% to 26%) in the number of Americans giving Trump a “very favorable” rating, the highest level since late 2020. But again, that change occurred entirely among Republicans and Republican leaners, whose very favorable rating of Trump has risen from 49% to 58% since early July. Recent events have not improved the former president’s very favorable rating among Democrats (2%) or independents who lean toward neither party (10%).
Partisan polarization has largely put an end to swings of that sort; most people now stick to their political “team” no matter what.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-yaho...t-changed-trump-for-the-better-201011662.html
Presidential candidates tend to enjoy a post-convention 'bounce' — but Trump remains tied with Kamala Harris at 46%.
One of the major themes of last week’s Republican National Convention was that the party’s three-time nominee, former President Donald Trump, had been transformed — in a good way — by the assassination attempt a few days earlier in Butler, Pa.
“When Trump stood up after being shot in the face, bloodied, and put his hand up — that was a transformation,” conservative pundit Tucker Carlson said while onstage in Milwaukee. “Everything was different after that moment. Everything. This convention is different. The nation is different. The world is different. Donald Trump is different.”
But according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll, most Americans disagree. Just 28% say that the shooting has changed Trump “for the better” — while a majority (51%) say either that it hasn’t changed him at all (44%) or that it has changed him “for the worse” (7%).
The survey of 1,743 U.S. adults was conducted from July 19 to 22, immediately following the convention. Its results suggest that one of the most eventful periods in recent U.S. history — a period that began with the assassination attempt, continued with the vice-presidential nomination of Sen. JD Vance of Ohio and ended with President Biden dropping out of the race — has had little effect on Trump’s political standing.
No convention 'bounce'
In the past, presidential candidates have tended to enjoy a post-convention “bounce.” But Trump remains stuck at 46% in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup with the current frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, Vice President Kamala Harris, who also polls at 46%.In both 2016 and 2020, Trump won less than 47% of the vote; that still appears to be his ceiling. The last time a Yahoo News/YouGov survey pitted Trump against Harris, in early July, he polled at 47% and she polled at 45%.
Trump’s favorable rating has increased slightly (from 39% to 43%) since the previous Yahoo News/YouGov survey, which was conducted after his June 27 debate with Biden. His unfavorable rating has fallen by a few points as well (from 56% to 53%).
But this mostly reflects a reversion to Trump’s normal numbers rather than some sort of new breakthrough; his favorable rating was actually higher in January (45%), March (45%) and April (44%). Republicans and Republican-leaning independents — among whom Trump’s favorable rating ticked up from 83% to 88% — account for most of the shift.
The shooting, the convention and the VP pick do appear to have had one statistically significant impact: a 5-point increase (from 21% to 26%) in the number of Americans giving Trump a “very favorable” rating, the highest level since late 2020. But again, that change occurred entirely among Republicans and Republican leaners, whose very favorable rating of Trump has risen from 49% to 58% since early July. Recent events have not improved the former president’s very favorable rating among Democrats (2%) or independents who lean toward neither party (10%).
America the polarized
To put Trump’s current numbers in perspective, then-President Ronald Reagan’s job-approval rating increased by 7 points (from 60% to 67% approve) after he was shot and wounded by John Hinckley Jr. in 1981 — with significant gains among Democrats (from 41% to 51% approve) and independents (from 61% to 69% approve ).Partisan polarization has largely put an end to swings of that sort; most people now stick to their political “team” no matter what.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/new-yaho...t-changed-trump-for-the-better-201011662.html