signalmankenneth
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So far, the fact that former President Donald Trump has been criminally indicted four times this year has done little to dent his support among Republican voters.
But what if he’s eventually convicted?
A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll has found that in that scenario, even some current Trump supporters could start to have second thoughts about casting their ballots for him in 2024.
The survey of 1,665 U.S. adults was conducted from Aug. 17 to 21 — after the news of Trump’s most recent indictment, for allegedly orchestrating a racketeering ring to overturn the 2020 election results in Georgia, had some time to sink in, but before he surrendered Thursday at the Fulton County Jail.
The results are striking.
A Trump conviction could upend the GOP primary
Asked about their current preference for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, a full 52% of potential Republican primary voters — that is, voters who identify as Republicans or Republican-leaning independents — selected Trump.
That makes him the party’s undisputed frontrunner, with the next closest candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, trailing by 40 percentage points.
But when the same voters are asked a new follow-up question — “If Trump is convicted of a serious crime in the coming months, who would you vote for in your state’s 2024 Republican primary?” — support for the former president suddenly plummets by 17 points (to just 35%). Support for DeSantis, on the other hand, rises by 8 points (to 20%).
Another 17% say they’re not sure (up from 14%). No other candidate gains more than a point or two.
Biden also stands to benefit
Asking registered voters who they would vote for in next year’s general election “if Trump is convicted of a serious crime” produces a similar (though smaller) shift. In that case, support for President Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, holds steady at 47%. But support for Trump falls by 3 points, from 41% to 38%, while the overall number of voters who say they're not sure (9%) or that they would not vote (6%) increases by 3 points.
That gives Biden a 9-point lead.
In 2020, Biden defeated Trump by 4.5 percentage points nationwide — enough for a 306-232 Electoral College victory.
If Biden were to double his previous margin in 2024, Trump would lose in a landslide. By the same token, if Trump were to shed 17 points of GOP primary support in Iowa, the first caucus state, his lead there would shrink to single digits, according to the latest polling.
For observers who have long wondered if anything could ever loosen Trump’s iron grip on the GOP, such numbers offer a provisional answer: perhaps being found guilty of serious crimes — and possibly even sentenced to prison — on the brink of a high-stakes presidential election.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/poll-tru...or-2024-if-convicted-of-crimes-170551983.html
But what if he’s eventually convicted?
A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll has found that in that scenario, even some current Trump supporters could start to have second thoughts about casting their ballots for him in 2024.
The survey of 1,665 U.S. adults was conducted from Aug. 17 to 21 — after the news of Trump’s most recent indictment, for allegedly orchestrating a racketeering ring to overturn the 2020 election results in Georgia, had some time to sink in, but before he surrendered Thursday at the Fulton County Jail.
The results are striking.
A Trump conviction could upend the GOP primary
Asked about their current preference for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, a full 52% of potential Republican primary voters — that is, voters who identify as Republicans or Republican-leaning independents — selected Trump.
That makes him the party’s undisputed frontrunner, with the next closest candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, trailing by 40 percentage points.
But when the same voters are asked a new follow-up question — “If Trump is convicted of a serious crime in the coming months, who would you vote for in your state’s 2024 Republican primary?” — support for the former president suddenly plummets by 17 points (to just 35%). Support for DeSantis, on the other hand, rises by 8 points (to 20%).
Another 17% say they’re not sure (up from 14%). No other candidate gains more than a point or two.
Biden also stands to benefit
Asking registered voters who they would vote for in next year’s general election “if Trump is convicted of a serious crime” produces a similar (though smaller) shift. In that case, support for President Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, holds steady at 47%. But support for Trump falls by 3 points, from 41% to 38%, while the overall number of voters who say they're not sure (9%) or that they would not vote (6%) increases by 3 points.
That gives Biden a 9-point lead.
In 2020, Biden defeated Trump by 4.5 percentage points nationwide — enough for a 306-232 Electoral College victory.
If Biden were to double his previous margin in 2024, Trump would lose in a landslide. By the same token, if Trump were to shed 17 points of GOP primary support in Iowa, the first caucus state, his lead there would shrink to single digits, according to the latest polling.
For observers who have long wondered if anything could ever loosen Trump’s iron grip on the GOP, such numbers offer a provisional answer: perhaps being found guilty of serious crimes — and possibly even sentenced to prison — on the brink of a high-stakes presidential election.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/poll-tru...or-2024-if-convicted-of-crimes-170551983.html
