FUCK THE POLICE
911 EVERY DAY
http://www.thisisbristol.co.uk/disp...me=yes&more_nodeId1=144922&contentPK=20883479
Conservative 461
Labour 96
Lib Dem 61
Labour looks a bit like the 1920's Liberals in their dwindling days. Oh, I can hope can't I?
POLL TODAY 'WOULD WIPE LABOUR OUT' OF BRISTOL
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BY LIZ WEBSTER EPNEWS
07:00 - 17 June 2008
The Labour Party would suffer its worst election result in the Bristol area for decades if the public were to go to the polls now, according to a leading expert.
Dr Gordon Reece, a retired lecturer from Bristol University, said that his election forecast, based on public opinion polls, showed things were worse for Labour under Gordon Brown than they were under Michael Foot in 1983.
The outcome would leave the party with no presence in the South West.
If a general election were to be called now, Dr Reece forecasts a Conservative victory with an overall majority of more than 250 seats.
The national breakdown would be Conservative 461, Labour 96 and Lib Dem 61.
Under Foot's leadership, the Labour party suffered the worst election performance since the 1930s, losing to a Tory majority of 144.
Dr Reece built his computer model 30 years ago.
It was the first of its kind to accurately predict Margaret Thatcher's landslide victory.
In 1979 he successfully predicted the final result within two seats after only three seats had been declared.
Since then it has been able to predict election outcomes successfully, including Labour's rise to power in 1997.
Using national opinion polls and last month's Crewe and Nantwich by-election results, Dr Reece was able to map results to his mathematical program, which assumes the percentage of people deserting their previous allegiance is statistically constant over the country and the ratio in which deserters are attracted to other parties is also constant.
The results show that three out of 10 Labour voters would switch to the Conservative Party, leaving the Liberal Democrats unchanged.
Dr Reece said: "I map what would happen if voters all over the country behaved in the same pattern as those that voted in the by-election.
"This is hypothetical and we cannot expect there to be a general election tomorrow, but my program shows that if there was one now, it would lead to the disappearance of Labour in the South West.
"The model shows the Lib Dem voters would remain the same, but there is a net effect of three out of 10 Labour voters switching their allegiance to the Tories.
"In 1983 the model showed a disastrous result for Michael Foot, but now things look even worse for Gordon Brown on both a national and local level."
The results would mean widespread change across the South West, notably among Labour constituencies in Bristol wards and in Stroud, Swindon and Gloucester.
The predictions caused mixed reactions among MPs across the region. Anne Snelgrove, Labour MP for South Swindon, said: "I'm busy getting on with the job that people in South Swindon elected me to do and won't be distracted by polls. Polls predicted a Labour victory in 1992, but we didn't win. The only poll that matters is the one on the day - which could be two years from now."
Meanwhile, Conservative parliamentary candidate for Bristol North West Charlotte Leslie said: "A day is a long time in politics, and two years is a very long time. But the key thing that makes it so unlikely that Labour are going to be able to claw their way back is that they have simply lost touch.
"They just don't seem to have grasped the gravity of the situation they are in - nor the situation that normal people find themselves in, day to day, with the credit crunch squeeze.
"If they don't acknowledge a problem, there's no way they can solve it."
Conservative 461
Labour 96
Lib Dem 61
Labour looks a bit like the 1920's Liberals in their dwindling days. Oh, I can hope can't I?
POLL TODAY 'WOULD WIPE LABOUR OUT' OF BRISTOL
Be the first reader to comment on this story
BY LIZ WEBSTER EPNEWS
07:00 - 17 June 2008
The Labour Party would suffer its worst election result in the Bristol area for decades if the public were to go to the polls now, according to a leading expert.
Dr Gordon Reece, a retired lecturer from Bristol University, said that his election forecast, based on public opinion polls, showed things were worse for Labour under Gordon Brown than they were under Michael Foot in 1983.
The outcome would leave the party with no presence in the South West.
If a general election were to be called now, Dr Reece forecasts a Conservative victory with an overall majority of more than 250 seats.
The national breakdown would be Conservative 461, Labour 96 and Lib Dem 61.
Under Foot's leadership, the Labour party suffered the worst election performance since the 1930s, losing to a Tory majority of 144.
Dr Reece built his computer model 30 years ago.
It was the first of its kind to accurately predict Margaret Thatcher's landslide victory.
In 1979 he successfully predicted the final result within two seats after only three seats had been declared.
Since then it has been able to predict election outcomes successfully, including Labour's rise to power in 1997.
Using national opinion polls and last month's Crewe and Nantwich by-election results, Dr Reece was able to map results to his mathematical program, which assumes the percentage of people deserting their previous allegiance is statistically constant over the country and the ratio in which deserters are attracted to other parties is also constant.
The results show that three out of 10 Labour voters would switch to the Conservative Party, leaving the Liberal Democrats unchanged.
Dr Reece said: "I map what would happen if voters all over the country behaved in the same pattern as those that voted in the by-election.
"This is hypothetical and we cannot expect there to be a general election tomorrow, but my program shows that if there was one now, it would lead to the disappearance of Labour in the South West.
"The model shows the Lib Dem voters would remain the same, but there is a net effect of three out of 10 Labour voters switching their allegiance to the Tories.
"In 1983 the model showed a disastrous result for Michael Foot, but now things look even worse for Gordon Brown on both a national and local level."
The results would mean widespread change across the South West, notably among Labour constituencies in Bristol wards and in Stroud, Swindon and Gloucester.
The predictions caused mixed reactions among MPs across the region. Anne Snelgrove, Labour MP for South Swindon, said: "I'm busy getting on with the job that people in South Swindon elected me to do and won't be distracted by polls. Polls predicted a Labour victory in 1992, but we didn't win. The only poll that matters is the one on the day - which could be two years from now."
Meanwhile, Conservative parliamentary candidate for Bristol North West Charlotte Leslie said: "A day is a long time in politics, and two years is a very long time. But the key thing that makes it so unlikely that Labour are going to be able to claw their way back is that they have simply lost touch.
"They just don't seem to have grasped the gravity of the situation they are in - nor the situation that normal people find themselves in, day to day, with the credit crunch squeeze.
"If they don't acknowledge a problem, there's no way they can solve it."
