REALLY dead hurricane season, Global warming alarmist predictions WRONG yet again

TheDanold

TheDanold

Unimatrix
Despite the fact that the earth is warming, we have the deadest Sept and Oct in 30 years
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/

Well there's only 1 thing we can deduce from this:
We need to trust the long-range models absolutely more than ever!

Seriously, clearly the extremist global warming alarmist crowd's attempts at trying to establish a relationship between global warming and frequency/intensity of hurricanes is at best faulty and at worst wrong.
 
Yes this is just further proof that humans do not have nearly as much figured out as they think they do. In many areas.
 
Why are you so quiet about the weekly reports of predictions being RIGHT, Dano? Like droughts, and water shortages, and ice caps melting, and higher average temperatures, and coral reefs disappearing, and habitat decreasing, and extinctions increasing, etc, etc, etc.

It couldn't be because you have an agenda, could it?

As I said on another thread, this is one topic where the "I told you so" I'll be able to throw your way in 20 years or so won't be much of a silver lining.
 
I was wondering how Dano was handling Bush starting to side with the global warming conspiracy theorists.
 
Onceler said:
Why are you so quiet about the weekly reports of predictions being RIGHT, Dano? Like droughts, and water shortages, and ice caps melting, and higher average temperatures, and coral reefs disappearing, and habitat decreasing, and extinctions increasing, etc, etc, etc.

It couldn't be because you have an agenda, could it?
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Yeah I have an agenda with hurricanes but not with droughts - that makes sense. Do you even think before you write this shit?

I don't dispute warmer weather will bring higher average temperatures or droughts (depending on the climate).
I do dispute the link to hurricanes as many do, which by the way even includes some non-sceptics of manmade global warming.
The foremost expert on hurricane prediction Bill Gray who pioneered the concept of "seasonal" hurricane forecasting — predicting months in advance the severity of the coming hurricane season. Some stats from him:

"there were 101 hurricanes from 1900 to 1949, in a period of cooler global temperature, compared to 83 from 1957 to 2006 when the earth warmed"

He also CORRECTLY predicted that we would see a less intense hurricane season related to the amount of salt in the water:
"Gray explained that a natural cycle of ocean water temperatures - related to the amount of salt in ocean water - was responsible for the global warming that he acknowledges have taken place. That same cycle means a period of cooling would begin soon and last for several years."



It's just all or nothing with those who view the environment as their religion.
 
You're ignoring the larger point. In general, since the 1990's, the forecasts & predictions of extreme weather & climate change have been fairly accurate. It's amazing when I think about all of the things that are happening now & that are being reported on, that were ridiculed by people like yourself a decade or 2 ago.

That's why it's absurd to take one prediction that didn't pan out right away (anomolies DO exist you know), and try to hang your hat on that one.

You're on the wrong side of this debate, Dano. The world's in trouble, and the people who are completely ignoring that right now, or arguing against it, won't be viewed with kindness in the annals of history.
 
Actually it is to be expected that our hurricane forcasting models are not working too well considering global warming is changing the rules....

Poor forcasting is actually proof of global warmings effects on the worlds climate.
 
Onceler said:
You're ignoring the larger point. In general, since the 1990's, the forecasts & predictions of extreme weather & climate change have been fairly accurate. It's amazing when I think about all of the things that are happening now & that are being reported on, that were ridiculed by people like yourself a decade or 2 ago.

That's why it's absurd to take one prediction that didn't pan out right away (anomolies DO exist you know), and try to hang your hat on that one.

You're on the wrong side of this debate, Dano. The world's in trouble, and the people who are completely ignoring that right now, or arguing against it, won't be viewed with kindness in the annals of history.
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Aren't people simply arguing that man (even operating his "cleanest") cannot significantly make enough diffence to reverse any naturally occuring climate change ?
 
Dilloduck said:
Aren't people simply arguing that man (even operating his "cleanest") cannot significantly make enough diffence to reverse any naturally occuring climate change ?
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Perhaps some are but what is being generally accepted is that we are at the least contributing to this climate change.
 
forecasting variables based on historical actuals is NEVER accurate. In the finance and business world thats a fact. i can get out about 3 years before i have huge variances from my forecasts.
 
Dilloduck said:
Aren't people simply arguing that man (even operating his "cleanest") cannot significantly make enough diffence to reverse any naturally occuring climate change ?
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Yes, and I understand that argument. Dano tends to take it a little further, and go off on his "warming's a good thing" tangents, and cherrypicking anomolies in a 1 year hurricane season forecast.

There is ample evidence to suggest that climate change is NOT coming about for strictly natural reasons. I believe that there is no question that man's activity has at the very least exacerbated the situation. That said, I'm starting to give up on the idea that, on a practical level, we can really do anything about it.

I think at this point, we just have to start getting aware of what it will mean for us in the near & far future, and start preparing accordingly. We need a way of life that is more sustainable, even given the changing conditions which we will likely see.
 
Dilloduck said:
Aren't people simply arguing that man (even operating his "cleanest") cannot significantly make enough diffence to reverse any naturally occuring climate change ?
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Who knows? The global warming denialist's arguments have changed so many time over the past ten years, I haven't kept track of where they are now. First, they denied that we were even in a long term warming trend, then they said we were (but it was all natural variation), now they're saying that even if man is partially responsible there's nothing we can do about it anyway.
 
Cypress said:
Who knows? The global warming denialist's arguments have changed so many time over the past ten years, I haven't kept track of where they are now. First, they denied that we were even in a long term warming trend, then they said we were (but it was all natural variation), now they're saying that even if man is partially responsible there's nothing we can do about it anyway.
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Don't forget "of course the globe is warming, but that's a GOOD thing!"
 
Onceler said:
Don't forget "of course the globe is warming, but that's a GOOD thing!"
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yeah who wants those ice caps that get in the way of drilling for oil anyway.
And beachfront property is not all it is cracked up to be.
 
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