Recession eased up in Q2

O

Onceler

New member
I'm not trying to be a provacateur, here, but at what point do we say that just maybe, the stimulus is having a positive effect on the economy?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32233514/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/

We've got 7 of 10 key indicators up over the past 2 months, GDP shrinking less than expected, market over 9,000 and many economists at this point saying that it's likely we hit bottom.

Maybe this is all just part of the natural cycle....but all I heard around the time that the stimulus passed was that it would be an absolute disaster for the economy, and send us hurtling into a serious depression. Simply put, that has not transpired....
 
obama's spendulus really hasn't taken effect....so it remains to be seen what effect his plan really has

this is good though, and i hope the economy continues to do better
 
At least two of my competitors went bankrupt, and I'm starting to see RFPs that would have gone to them...
 
the Dems are in kind of a "screwed if you do, screwed if you don't" mode right now.....if someone says why hasn't the economy done better they shout "hardly any of the money hasn't been spent yet"......if someone says there is improvement they say "why isn't the stimulus getting credit for it".....

the reality is, you argue that indicators are up over last two months...that would be likely be May and June since the July figures certainly aren't in yet.....the stimulus bill wasn't approved until late April......how many checks do you figure the government issued in May?......
 
PostmodernProphet said:
the Dems are in kind of a "screwed if you do, screwed if you don't" mode right now.....if someone says why hasn't the economy done better they shout "hardly any of the money hasn't been spent yet"......if someone says there is improvement they say "why isn't the stimulus getting credit for it".....

the reality is, you argue that indicators are up over last two months...that would be likely be May and June since the July figures certainly aren't in yet.....the stimulus bill wasn't approved until late April......how many checks do you figure the government issued in May?......
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Well, it is true that the stimulus money is trickling out. However, there have been other measures, including the bailouts, that have been taken to stem the downward spiral.

Personally, I feel that most economic cycles are exactly that - cycles. But I do think there are things that any administration can do in a crisis to stop the bleeding, and foster conditions that can lead to recovery.

Regardless, I am pleasantly surprised that the signs seem to be heading in a more positive direction, this early in the process. Earlier in the year, I had much more uncertainty about where we would be right now, and it could have been a much worse place, imo.

For example, if GM had simply been allowed to fail outright back in January, as some were arguing, I think that would have been a blow that could have added at least a year to the downturn, maybe more...
 
Onceler said:
Well, it is true that the stimulus money is trickling out. However, there have been other measures, including the bailouts, that have been taken to stem the downward spiral.
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well, if the downward spiral is stemmed, is it okay to stop spending money now?.....maybe even cancel all the money that hasn't been spent yet?.....
 
PostmodernProphet said:
well, if the downward spiral is stemmed, is it okay to stop spending money now?.....maybe even cancel all the money that hasn't been spent yet?.....
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That's certainly oversimplifying things. Personally, I don't think we're out of the woods yet, and there are potential landmines ahead. The idea of the stimulus is to build a longer-term recovery.

Everyone thinks it's so much to spend, but the American economy lost 3 times as much as the amount of the stimulus in the months between October & February.
 
Onceler said:
That's certainly oversimplifying things. Personally, I don't think we're out of the woods yet, and there are potential landmines ahead. The idea of the stimulus is to build a longer-term recovery.

Everyone thinks it's so much to spend, but the American economy lost 3 times as much as the amount of the stimulus in the months between October & February.
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so basically, we now have four times less than we used to have?.....
 
RubberMallet said:
this must be what happened to the airFrance flight.

Cue Captain Jacques on the mike:
"Good news! the plane is STILL diving toward the water, but we are NOT going to hit as fast as before! "
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A poor analogy, because it implies an economy that will crash to a point from which it will never be able to recover, which would be fairly unprecedented.
 
Onceler said:
I'm not trying to be a provacateur, here, but at what point do we say that just maybe, the stimulus is having a positive effect on the economy?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32233514/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/

We've got 7 of 10 key indicators up over the past 2 months, GDP shrinking less than expected, market over 9,000 and many economists at this point saying that it's likely we hit bottom.

Maybe this is all just part of the natural cycle....but all I heard around the time that the stimulus passed was that it would be an absolute disaster for the economy, and send us hurtling into a serious depression. Simply put, that has not transpired....
Click to expand...

If you continue along this path, I shall be forced to equate you to toppy....

The recession isn't 'easing' if things are getting worse. While the speed of the decline is easing, the recession is not.

As you are aware, I was in favor of stimulus, though I am not happy with the fact that the bulk of the stimulus isn't going to hit until next year.

Until we have a better grasp on how bad the credit card market hit and commercial real estate market hit will be, I would not be in agreement that the stimulus is working. We have already seen the banks go back to the insane bonuses for a year in which most of the banks LOST money.

As for the market... if it can hang about 8800 for the next couple of weeks I will be impressed. But earnings season is winding down... I think we are due for a pullback at least to the 8000 level.
 
Superfreak said:
If you continue along this path, I shall be forced to equate you to toppy....

The recession isn't 'easing' if things are getting worse. While the speed of the decline is easing, the recession is not.

As you are aware, I was in favor of stimulus, though I am not happy with the fact that the bulk of the stimulus isn't going to hit until next year.

Until we have a better grasp on how bad the credit card market hit and commercial real estate market hit will be, I would not be in agreement that the stimulus is working. We have already seen the banks go back to the insane bonuses for a year in which most of the banks LOST money.

As for the market... if it can hang about 8800 for the next couple of weeks I will be impressed. But earnings season is winding down... I think we are due for a pullback at least to the 8000 level.
Click to expand...

Market's over 9K, and more millionaires. Don't be a doomer :clink:
 
That was quite toppyesque. Intentionally so I think.

For jobs at least the recession will continue to get worse for at least the next 6-9 months.
Jobs may bottom and start to climb back up by the end of March or so next year. That is the earliest imho.
And since we are over 2/3 dependent on consumer spending, no real recovery can take place till then.
 
The report yesterday on our economy is an important sign that we’re headed in the right direction.

In the last few months, the economy has done measurably better than expected, and many economists suggest that part of this progress is directly attributable to the Recovery Act. Business investment, which had been plummeting in the past few months, is showing signs of stabilizing. This means that eventually, businesses will start growing and hiring again.

This and the other difficult but important steps that we have taken over the last six months have helped put the brakes on this recession.

It will take many more months to fully dig ourselves out of a recession, a recession that we’ve now learned was even deeper than anyone thought, and when we receive our monthly job report next week, it is likely to show that we are continuing to lose far too many jobs in this country.

As far as I’m concerned, we will not have a recovery as long as we keep losing jobs.
 
Not very many of you thought that, apparently, if the tiny number of seats you hold in Congress is anything to go by.

How does it feel to know you've completely misjudged the mood of the voters and are powerless?
 
President Obama inherited a terrible mess: a $1.3 trillion deficit, two wars, rising unemployment and unprecedented crises in our banking system.

The Obama Administration has worked tirelessly to address our immediate problems of rising unemployment, falling home prices and limping credit markets, while taking a longer view in laying a strong foundation for future economic growth that benefits all Americans.

We are fighting for economic recovery on all fronts, despite the token resistance of the tiny GOP minority.
 
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