FUCK THE POLICE
911 EVERY DAY
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/11/26/131555/74/444/666726
NV-Sen: Reid is as weak at home, as he is in the Senate
by kos
Wed Nov 26, 2008 at 10:37:28 AM PST
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 11/23-25. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
Reid (D) 46
Porter (R) 40
Those are anemic numbers for someone of Reid's stature, especially when matched up against a Republican who lost his House seat this past election day. Looking further into the internals of this poll, it's quite clear why Reid is well below the 50 percent "safe" mark:
Approval/Disapproval ratings
Reid: 38/54
Porter: 40/39
Those are ugly numbers. And among independents, it's 31/60, so it's not as if Reid's constant capitulations to Republicans and Lieberman are earning him any brownie points with independents. They hold him with as much contempt as, well, we do. And check out Reid's re-elects. Ouch.
If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote to reelect Harry Reid would you consider voting for another candidate or would you vote to replace Reid?
Reelect: 32%
Consider: 23%
Replace: 41%
Even among Democrats, his reelects suck: (MoE 5%)
Reelect: 44%
Consider: 31%
Replace: 19%
When you can't even get 50 percent of your own party to root for your reelection, you've got serious problems at home. And 42 percent of independents want Reid replaced, so it's not as if he's getting better support anywhere else. Still, these aren't numbers that give much of an opening to a viable primary challenge, so it's pretty likely we're stuck with Reid heading into the general election.
This race will clearly be a marquee 2010 battle. It may very well be the only serious pickup opportunity for Republicans. So we'll have a majority leader who is under serious electoral pressure at home, who is deeply unliked by his own constituents, leading our Senate caucus. If you think the cautious and ineffective Reid of the past two years was bad, we may be in store for much worse in the coming year.
It's time Reid seriously consider resigning his leadership post so he can focus full-time on winning reelection. The state's changing demographics and the thousands of newly registered voters (thanks to Obama) are likely Reid's salvation, but if he continues his half-assed leadership efforts, that won't do either him, nor the Democratic caucus any favors.
Full crosstabs below the fold.
* ::
*
NEVADA POLL RESULTS
The Research 2000 Nevada Poll was conducted from November 23 through November 25, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
NOTE: There was an over sample conducted among Democratic primary voters totaling 400. The margin of error is 5%.
NV-Sen: Reid is as weak at home, as he is in the Senate
by kos
Wed Nov 26, 2008 at 10:37:28 AM PST
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 11/23-25. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
Reid (D) 46
Porter (R) 40
Those are anemic numbers for someone of Reid's stature, especially when matched up against a Republican who lost his House seat this past election day. Looking further into the internals of this poll, it's quite clear why Reid is well below the 50 percent "safe" mark:
Approval/Disapproval ratings
Reid: 38/54
Porter: 40/39
Those are ugly numbers. And among independents, it's 31/60, so it's not as if Reid's constant capitulations to Republicans and Lieberman are earning him any brownie points with independents. They hold him with as much contempt as, well, we do. And check out Reid's re-elects. Ouch.
If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote to reelect Harry Reid would you consider voting for another candidate or would you vote to replace Reid?
Reelect: 32%
Consider: 23%
Replace: 41%
Even among Democrats, his reelects suck: (MoE 5%)
Reelect: 44%
Consider: 31%
Replace: 19%
When you can't even get 50 percent of your own party to root for your reelection, you've got serious problems at home. And 42 percent of independents want Reid replaced, so it's not as if he's getting better support anywhere else. Still, these aren't numbers that give much of an opening to a viable primary challenge, so it's pretty likely we're stuck with Reid heading into the general election.
This race will clearly be a marquee 2010 battle. It may very well be the only serious pickup opportunity for Republicans. So we'll have a majority leader who is under serious electoral pressure at home, who is deeply unliked by his own constituents, leading our Senate caucus. If you think the cautious and ineffective Reid of the past two years was bad, we may be in store for much worse in the coming year.
It's time Reid seriously consider resigning his leadership post so he can focus full-time on winning reelection. The state's changing demographics and the thousands of newly registered voters (thanks to Obama) are likely Reid's salvation, but if he continues his half-assed leadership efforts, that won't do either him, nor the Democratic caucus any favors.
Full crosstabs below the fold.
* ::
*
NEVADA POLL RESULTS
The Research 2000 Nevada Poll was conducted from November 23 through November 25, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
NOTE: There was an over sample conducted among Democratic primary voters totaling 400. The margin of error is 5%.
