The bad news for Obama in Michigan....

[PostmodernProphet]

a recent poll of Michigan show it to be leaning toward Obama.....however, a close examination of how the polls are conducted shows a flaw that is likely to cost Obama the state's electoral votes....

Obama has extended his lead in Detroit (91%-2%), up from his June totals (78%-22%).
Romney leads in the crucial Tri-County area surrounding Detroit by 8% (48%-40%) the same
margin by which he led in June (53%-45%). That area includes Wayne County outside of the
City of Detroit, Oakland and Macomb Counties. In the rest of the state outside the Tri-County
area, Romney has increased his 2% lead (47%-45%) to 6% (47%-41%). Romney stayed the
same as in June while Obama slipped 4%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/Mitchell_MI_Pres_7-24-12.pdf

in 2008 the votes Obama received from the Detroit area swept him into a commanding lead....however, what the polls don't show is that while he continues to hold a 91% share of the Detroit voters, there are over 400,000 fewer Detroit area voters then there were in 08.......this will translate into a Romney win......

 

[blackascoal]

You only have half the story.

Most of those 400,000 missing Detroiters still live in Michigan. The vast majority of them have moved to surrounding communities, but they still live in Michigan .. thus, your analysis is flawed.

 

[PostmodernProphet]

You only have half the story.

Most of those 400,000 missing Detroiters still live in Michigan. The vast majority of them have moved to surrounding communities, but they still live in Michigan .. thus, your analysis is flawed.

actually, most of those missing Detroiters moved to somewhere they could find a job.......that was NOT in Michigan........be that as it may, the fact that Obama has 90+ support in Detroit but Romney is leading outstate still indicates that those previous Detroiters are not supporting Obama whereever they ended up.....

 

[blackascoal]

actually, most of those missing Detroiters moved to somewhere they could find a job.......that was NOT in Michigan........be that as it may, the fact that Obama has 90+ support in Detroit but Romney is leading outstate still indicates that those previous Detroiters are not supporting Obama whereever they ended up.....

I'm from Detroit and I disagree.

The vast majority of those who left Detroit are still in Michigan. Many moved to surrounding communitites to put their children in better schools.

Romney's father was a well-liked Governor in Michigan .. and Mitt himself once lived there .. but he hasn't seemed to capture the sentiment of his father.

Poll: Obama Has Slight Advantage in Michigan
August 1, 2012

President Obama holds a slight lead in Michigan, according to a new Detroit Free Press poll released on Tuesday.

Obama polled at 48 percent, a six-point advantage over Mitt Romney. When asked about the candidate’s favorability, however, the president’s advantage over the presumptive Republican nominee jumps to a nine-point lead at 49 percent. The two candidates are about even when it comes to unfavorability, with Obama at 46 percent and Romney at 48 percent.

The president also leads Romney in three other swing states—Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania—according to new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times polls.
http://news.yahoo.com/poll-obama-slight-advantage-michigan-103636585.html

I don't support Obama or Romney .. but I'm betting that Obama will once again win Michigan.

 

[PostmodernProphet]

Romney's father was a well-liked Governor in Michigan

I've lived in Michigan for 35 years.....Romney was before my time......he was "before the time" of 80% of Michigan voters.....I see no reason to claim that should give Romney any kind of edge......

personally, I can't see how Obama can win Michigan......400k people moving out of his support area, 14% or higher unemployment among those who are still there.....the state coming back under a Republican governor and congress....Democrat run schools in receivership due to mismanagement and fraud.....shucks, even one of our Democrat representatives has a wife doing jail time for taking bribes....what has to happen before the people on the east side of the state finally say, "maybe we shouldn't be voting for these people"......

 

[Mott the Hoople]

I've lived in Michigan for 35 years.....Romney was before my time......he was "before the time" of 80% of Michigan voters.....I see no reason to claim that should give Romney any kind of edge......

personally, I can't see how Obama can win Michigan......400k people moving out of his support area, 14% or higher unemployment among those who are still there.....the state coming back under a Republican governor and congress....Democrat run schools in receivership due to mismanagement and fraud.....shucks, even one of our Democrat representatives has a wife doing jail time for taking bribes....what has to happen before the people on the east side of the state finally say, "maybe we shouldn't be voting for these people"......

An era isn't dark because there is no light but because the people refused to see it.

Don't let your head explode if Obama wins PiMP. The odds of that happening are in his favor.

 

[PostmodernProphet]

An era isn't dark because there is no light but because the people refused to see it.

Don't let your head explode if Obama wins PiMP. The odds of that happening are in his favor.

I love it when you say that.....given your track record in Wisconsin it's like money in the bank to bet against you......

 

[Minister of Truth]

What kind of retard escapes from Hell, places his kids is better schools, and continues to vote for more Hell?

 

[blackascoal]

I've lived in Michigan for 35 years.....Romney was before my time......he was "before the time" of 80% of Michigan voters.....I see no reason to claim that should give Romney any kind of edge......

personally, I can't see how Obama can win Michigan......400k people moving out of his support area, 14% or higher unemployment among those who are still there.....the state coming back under a Republican governor and congress....Democrat run schools in receivership due to mismanagement and fraud.....shucks, even one of our Democrat representatives has a wife doing jail time for taking bribes....what has to happen before the people on the east side of the state finally say, "maybe we shouldn't be voting for these people"......

Unlike you, most Michiganders remember George Bush and his devastation .. and, many also appreciate Obama for saving what's left of the auto industry.

Politicians going to jail for corruption is not unique to either political party.

Additionally, you may want those 400,000 Obama supporters to disappear, but they haven't. The vast majority of them still live in Michigan, and I'd imagine are still going to vote for Obama.

If things are as awful as you suggest .. and they are .. then why isn't Romney running away with the vote?

Could it be that he isn't trusted?

Do you really think people are anxious to end all safety-nets .. as Romney and Ryan want .. at a time when they need them most?

I seriously disagree with your analysis, but I appreciate the conversation brother.

 

[blackascoal]

What kind of retard escapes from Hell, places his kids is better schools, and continues to vote for more Hell?

People who want no part of your Hell.

 

[PostmodernProphet]

Unlike you, most Michiganders remember George Bush and his devastation

yes.....fondly......I wish we could turn the clock back to 2008 and have a do over......

and, many also appreciate Obama for saving what's left of the auto industry.

ah yes, saving GM......you know Obama spent $350 million on a battery plant here in Holland to provide batteries for the Chevy Volt.....my son worked there until about a month ago, but he got tired of waiting for production to start and took a job selling Verizon phones instead.....he talked to one of the guys still working there today......they've turned off the power to the HAC units and have shipped all the materials back to Korea.....today the remaining employees sat in the cafeteria and watched Ice Age 2 three times in a row.....its wonderful that GM has been saved......

 

[Damocles]

I'm from Detroit and I disagree.

The vast majority of those who left Detroit are still in Michigan. Many moved to surrounding communitites to put their children in better schools.

Romney's father was a well-liked Governor in Michigan .. and Mitt himself once lived there .. but he hasn't seemed to capture the sentiment of his father.

Poll: Obama Has Slight Advantage in Michigan
August 1, 2012

President Obama holds a slight lead in Michigan, according to a new Detroit Free Press poll released on Tuesday.

Obama polled at 48 percent, a six-point advantage over Mitt Romney. When asked about the candidate’s favorability, however, the president’s advantage over the presumptive Republican nominee jumps to a nine-point lead at 49 percent. The two candidates are about even when it comes to unfavorability, with Obama at 46 percent and Romney at 48 percent.

The president also leads Romney in three other swing states—Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania—according to new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times polls.
http://news.yahoo.com/poll-obama-slight-advantage-michigan-103636585.html

I don't support Obama or Romney .. but I'm betting that Obama will once again win Michigan.

The poll shows that Romney has a lead in those voters then... If they moved to the outlying areas, currently Romney holds a lead in those areas.

 

[blackascoal]

The poll shows that Romney has a lead in those voters then... If they moved to the outlying areas, currently Romney holds a lead in those areas.

Who leads the state?

Voters from Detroit who moved to outlying areas moved to almost all-white districts .. thus, the concentration is diluted. However, presidential elections are not done by district, they are done by the entire state .. THUS, this is why even though Romney has a slight lead in districts that he would have otherwise had larger leads .. check the historical data .. Obama still leads the state.

Most of his voters are still there.