The Bare Knuckled Pundit
Grand Inquisitor
Having limped across the finish line to win the Democratic presidential nomination, Barack Obama has recovered with a speed and ferocity that bodes ill for Republican protagonist John McCain. Though admittedly early in the contest, at this point one would have to give the advantage and momentum to Obama. Here’s why:
-Money: Obama has raised over $265 million to date and has $46.5 million on-hand. Projections are he may raise up to $100 million this month alone. Clearly the old axiom that money follows momentum still rings true. In stark contrast, McCain has raised a total of $96.6 million with $23 million currently in the bank.
While these figures are troubling enough on their own, there is the added fact that Barack has built his fundraising juggernaut on low dollar and recurring donors. Emphasizing grassroots contributions ranging from $20 to $100, Obama’s donors are light years away from reaching the maximum contribution limit. Accordingly, he can go back to the well time and time again.
Advantage: Obama
-Party Unity and Drive: With their 2006 mid-term Congressional victory spilling Republican blood on the water, Democrats have lost themselves in a partisan feeding frenzy in anticipation of this year’s impending political bloodbath. While Democrats talk enthusiastically about electoral tailcoats and down-ticket draw, Republicans are abandoning ship to the cry, “Every man for himself!”
Having won the Democratic nomination, Obama has now turned aggressively to the center drawing his party with him by the force of his will and personality. His primary antagonist has acknowledged his victory and publicly pledged her fealty to his crusade. Meanwhile, there is an electric atmosphere building around the thought that the Democrats may make history by electing not only the first black President of the United States, but also the first black leader of the industrialized Western world.
Dissimilarly, John McCain still labors to tack to the center as the conservative base of the Republican Party clamors to draw him farther right. Failing to settle on and nominate their own champion, they find themselves a disgruntled and dispirited congregation led by a candidate they have often labeled as apostate. Having articulated no new or compelling vision of Conservatism, they wander about propelled by the fading vapors of Reaganism; hardly the fuel stores on which one launches a successful presidential campaign.
Advantage: Democrats and Obama
-Stagecraft: In politics perception is reality. To paraphrase Tony Robbins, the goal of political campaigns is to create their own realities. Part of this involves message and image control, but another crucial factor is stagecraft and event management. One need look no further than the candidate rallies on the night of Obama’s historic nomination seizure to see who holds the upper hand in the mastery of stagecraft.
While McCain spoke to a few hundred supporters in a low-ceilinged room in Kenner, Louisiana, Obama played to a standing room only audience of thousands at the very same arena where the Republicans will hold their national convention at the end of summer. Not only did he make history, he made an impression and a statement all in one fell swoop.
Speaking before Obama, McCain’s green stage backdrop has been compared to Fenway Park’s legendary “Big Green Monster”. Staid and uninspired, while it may have been an attempt to subliminally reinforce McCain’s environmentally friendly image, the result conjured up images of Jimmy Carter’s trademark green campaign material.
Am I the only one that keeps hearing the word malaise echoing disconcertingly in the distance?
Note to the McCain staff: Blue is an environmentally representative color, as well. Think sky, water, the ocean. Go back to the deep Navy blue. It resonates and conveys strength and stability. Last time I checked they were two of the pillars propping up your campaign. This is the big show, go with what got you there and quit looking like amateurs fresh out of undergrad.
Meanwhile in St. Paul, Minnesota, Obama conducted yet another rock star rally. Adoring and cheering throngs set a distinct contrast to the candidate’s own sublime emotional state on the historic night. His rallies are energetic and electric; they will keep the troops pumped up and inspired for the arduous campaign yet to come. Clearly his staff understands that a picture tells a thousand words and each rally is a montage of a thousand images.
Having been labeled all style and no substance, the Obama camp has embraced stagecraft with an almost religious-like fervor. They will press their candidate's energy and charm to the forefront. His image and message with be managed with Madison Avenue precision. They will fashion the air of inevitability around him and his candidacy.
Running as the substance candidate, McCain has largely remained unconcerned with issues of style and staging. Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale were serious, substantive candidates that frowned on Ronald Reagan’s Hollywood theatrics and managed milieus. See how well that worked out for them. That's not even mentioning the fact that a certain female Senator from the state of New York tried the substance over style argument in the Democratic primaries and came up agonzingly short.
Another note to the McCain staff: Burn every tie currently in the candidate’s wardrobe and find out where Barack buys his. While I personally prefer Jerry Garcias, John can’t pull those off. Follow Barack’s lead; you can be fashionable without being flashy.
Advantage: Obama
As noted before, this is extremely early in the race. There has yet to be one debate or joint townhall meeting. There are sneak attacks yet to be launched, booby traps to be tripped and potholes that could derail a campaign in the final stretch to the White House. Yet, in addition to the advantages highlighted above, polls suggest Barack already has a lead outside the margin of error. At this point, it would appear as if the race is his to loose. Given his primary performance, he will most likely seek to build up an overwhelming war chest and an insurmountable lead that he can coast on to the finish line.
However, before Michelle begins looking at curtain and carpet swatches, one should remember that Mike Dukakis led George H. Bush by twelve points on Labor Day, 1988. Anything can happen between now and November 4th. That is, as the ghost of Lee Atwater laughs, why they play the game.
A week is an eternity in politics, faithful readers, and there are twenty-one weeks till the election. By the time this is all said and done, it will definitely feel like an eternity twenty-one times over. Stay tuned for further updates as the campaign passes like sands in the hour glass and developments warrant.
-Money: Obama has raised over $265 million to date and has $46.5 million on-hand. Projections are he may raise up to $100 million this month alone. Clearly the old axiom that money follows momentum still rings true. In stark contrast, McCain has raised a total of $96.6 million with $23 million currently in the bank.
While these figures are troubling enough on their own, there is the added fact that Barack has built his fundraising juggernaut on low dollar and recurring donors. Emphasizing grassroots contributions ranging from $20 to $100, Obama’s donors are light years away from reaching the maximum contribution limit. Accordingly, he can go back to the well time and time again.
Advantage: Obama
-Party Unity and Drive: With their 2006 mid-term Congressional victory spilling Republican blood on the water, Democrats have lost themselves in a partisan feeding frenzy in anticipation of this year’s impending political bloodbath. While Democrats talk enthusiastically about electoral tailcoats and down-ticket draw, Republicans are abandoning ship to the cry, “Every man for himself!”
Having won the Democratic nomination, Obama has now turned aggressively to the center drawing his party with him by the force of his will and personality. His primary antagonist has acknowledged his victory and publicly pledged her fealty to his crusade. Meanwhile, there is an electric atmosphere building around the thought that the Democrats may make history by electing not only the first black President of the United States, but also the first black leader of the industrialized Western world.
Dissimilarly, John McCain still labors to tack to the center as the conservative base of the Republican Party clamors to draw him farther right. Failing to settle on and nominate their own champion, they find themselves a disgruntled and dispirited congregation led by a candidate they have often labeled as apostate. Having articulated no new or compelling vision of Conservatism, they wander about propelled by the fading vapors of Reaganism; hardly the fuel stores on which one launches a successful presidential campaign.
Advantage: Democrats and Obama
-Stagecraft: In politics perception is reality. To paraphrase Tony Robbins, the goal of political campaigns is to create their own realities. Part of this involves message and image control, but another crucial factor is stagecraft and event management. One need look no further than the candidate rallies on the night of Obama’s historic nomination seizure to see who holds the upper hand in the mastery of stagecraft.
While McCain spoke to a few hundred supporters in a low-ceilinged room in Kenner, Louisiana, Obama played to a standing room only audience of thousands at the very same arena where the Republicans will hold their national convention at the end of summer. Not only did he make history, he made an impression and a statement all in one fell swoop.
Speaking before Obama, McCain’s green stage backdrop has been compared to Fenway Park’s legendary “Big Green Monster”. Staid and uninspired, while it may have been an attempt to subliminally reinforce McCain’s environmentally friendly image, the result conjured up images of Jimmy Carter’s trademark green campaign material.
Am I the only one that keeps hearing the word malaise echoing disconcertingly in the distance?
Note to the McCain staff: Blue is an environmentally representative color, as well. Think sky, water, the ocean. Go back to the deep Navy blue. It resonates and conveys strength and stability. Last time I checked they were two of the pillars propping up your campaign. This is the big show, go with what got you there and quit looking like amateurs fresh out of undergrad.
Meanwhile in St. Paul, Minnesota, Obama conducted yet another rock star rally. Adoring and cheering throngs set a distinct contrast to the candidate’s own sublime emotional state on the historic night. His rallies are energetic and electric; they will keep the troops pumped up and inspired for the arduous campaign yet to come. Clearly his staff understands that a picture tells a thousand words and each rally is a montage of a thousand images.
Having been labeled all style and no substance, the Obama camp has embraced stagecraft with an almost religious-like fervor. They will press their candidate's energy and charm to the forefront. His image and message with be managed with Madison Avenue precision. They will fashion the air of inevitability around him and his candidacy.
Running as the substance candidate, McCain has largely remained unconcerned with issues of style and staging. Jimmy Carter and Walter Mondale were serious, substantive candidates that frowned on Ronald Reagan’s Hollywood theatrics and managed milieus. See how well that worked out for them. That's not even mentioning the fact that a certain female Senator from the state of New York tried the substance over style argument in the Democratic primaries and came up agonzingly short.
Another note to the McCain staff: Burn every tie currently in the candidate’s wardrobe and find out where Barack buys his. While I personally prefer Jerry Garcias, John can’t pull those off. Follow Barack’s lead; you can be fashionable without being flashy.
Advantage: Obama
As noted before, this is extremely early in the race. There has yet to be one debate or joint townhall meeting. There are sneak attacks yet to be launched, booby traps to be tripped and potholes that could derail a campaign in the final stretch to the White House. Yet, in addition to the advantages highlighted above, polls suggest Barack already has a lead outside the margin of error. At this point, it would appear as if the race is his to loose. Given his primary performance, he will most likely seek to build up an overwhelming war chest and an insurmountable lead that he can coast on to the finish line.
However, before Michelle begins looking at curtain and carpet swatches, one should remember that Mike Dukakis led George H. Bush by twelve points on Labor Day, 1988. Anything can happen between now and November 4th. That is, as the ghost of Lee Atwater laughs, why they play the game.
A week is an eternity in politics, faithful readers, and there are twenty-one weeks till the election. By the time this is all said and done, it will definitely feel like an eternity twenty-one times over. Stay tuned for further updates as the campaign passes like sands in the hour glass and developments warrant.
