The Bradley Effect...and why John McCain is the likely next President

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CanadianKid

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The Bradley Effect?
By Robert Novak

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Which Democrat really won Super Tuesday? Thanks to the Democratic Party's proportional representation, it is not easy to say a week later. Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama ran a virtual dead heat for delegates that day in 22 states clearly stacked in Obama's favor. But the way Obama lost California raises the specter of the dreaded Bradley Effect.

Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American Democrat, in 1982 unexpectedly lost his candidacy for governor of California. His defeat followed voters telling pollsters they prefer a black candidate and then voting the other way. In California's primary last Tuesday, Obama lost by a landslide 10 percentage points after late surveys showed him ahead by 10 and 13 points.

Was this presumed 20-point reversal caused by the Bradley Effect, which has worried Democratic leaders about Obama since he became an obstacle to Hillary Clinton's majestic procession to the Oval Office? It is much too early for that conclusion, but the subject is in the minds and private comments of Democratic politicians pondering the stalemate for the party's presidential nomination.

Other than an alarming racial gap separating supporters of the two candidates, Obama escaped from Super Tuesday without obvious damage. Clinton's capture of California, New York and New Jersey gave her the big states contested that day except for Obama's home state of Illinois and, under Republican winner-take-all rules, would have put her on the way to the nomination. Instead, Obama got only a 13-delegate edge out of 1,681 delegates at stake Tuesday.



Assuming that Barack Obama gets the Democratic Nominee.... I am worried about the fact that white voters like Chapdog and Topspin who "say" they would vote for a black candidate to pollsters but are just full of shit....

On the other hand Hillary Clinton has the Misogynist Effect....the fact that white conservative men wont vote for her under any circumstances....

Both Democratic Nominees are flawed....If Barack was a white male....Man it would be a 50 state landslide....a reverse Ronald Reagan....

CK
 
Canadiangerber, chap can speak for himself. I'm voting dem even if they give it to UFO believer Kusenich
 
It is 25 years later now and there are voters who were not even alive in 1982. This country is ready for a black president and this man is ready to lead.

This country needs a Hope monger like President O !

YES WE CAN!
 
Ck your theory holds no water. its been proven out already.

Hillary would by far align the moderates against her. That would make mute any racial charged votes obama wouldn't get.
 
The real bullshit in this story is that most polls had Clinton and Obama within the margin of error. I think there was one major poll that had Obama ahead by 13 and EVERYONE knew that was flawed.
 
California was carried by Hillary due in great part by the latino votes. If she is gone, California hispanics are NOT going to vote for McCain. 2004 Bush lost the latino vote almost 2-1, here in New Mexico more latinos voted for Kerry. The ONLY state that the hispanic vote went for Bush in 2004 was Texas. That will more than likely be the only state where McCain wins the hispanic vote this time and my bet is because he was not the governor of Texas he won't carry by as wide a margin as Bush. California has not gone Republican since 1988. In 92 Clinton beat the incumbent president by 1.5 million votes, in 96 Clinton beat Dole by 1.3 million votes, Gore beat Bush by 1.3 million and Kerry beat Bush by 1.2 million votes. California is not going R this election cycle and everyone knows it. So the Bradley factor if there is one means nothing. Perhaps Califonians didn't vote for Bradley because they KNEW him.
 
Socrtease said:
California was carried by Hillary due in great part by the latino votes. If she is gone, California hispanics are NOT going to vote for McCain. 2004 Bush lost the latino vote almost 2-1, here in New Mexico more latinos voted for Kerry. The ONLY state that the hispanic vote went for Bush in 2004 was Texas. That will more than likely be the only state where McCain wins the hispanic vote this time and my bet is because he was not the governor of Texas he won't carry by as wide a margin as Bush. California has not gone Republican since 1988. In 92 Clinton beat the incumbent president by 1.5 million votes, in 96 Clinton beat Dole by 1.3 million votes, Gore beat Bush by 1.3 million and Kerry beat Bush by 1.2 million votes. California is not going R this election cycle and everyone knows it. So the Bradley factor if there is one means nothing. Perhaps Califonians didn't vote for Bradley because they KNEW him.
Click to expand...

EXACTLY.

I wouldn't have voted for Bradley .. he was an idiot and blacks considered him Uncle Tom Bradley.
 
Most polls had Clinton still in the lead by a good margin. Zogby was the only poll I saw that had Obama leading. Zogby also had Romney with a big lead. Zogby sucks.

I think the margin was wide due to the number of absentee votes that were cast before the surge by Obama. Not due to CA residents saying they would vote for Obama and then secretly changing their vote.
 
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