This Primary is VERY BAD for Dems

C

Chapdog

Abreast of the situations
1. THE DEM RACE IS NOW OUTSIDE THE HANDS OF VOTERS.
Because of Clinton's Texas-Ohio-Rhode Island success - again establishing presence for her - no single or group of primaries/caucuses is capable of "breaking the race open", for either candidate.
THIS MEANS THE DEM NOMINATION IS NOW VIRTUALLY CERTAIN TO BE SETTLED NOT BY VOTERS, BUT IN COURT OR BY SUPER-DELEGATES.
And that is almost surely going to cause a historic and greatly problematic split in their party; it could cost them the election.

2. SUPER-DELEGATES NOW HAVE A STARK CHOICE: ATTEMPT TO SETTLE THIS RACE "FROM THE INSIDE", OR LET IS FESTER, LINGER, TWIST IN THE WIND FOR MONTHS.
Without forceful - and probably hugely unpopular - intervention from party leaders, the dem race isn't going to swerve al over the map merely until the Pennsylvania primary (7 weeks distant, April 22) - but until at least the June 7 Puerto Rico primary...and quite possibly until after the re-do of both Michigan's and Florida's primaries, which could push this up to the convention.

3. PENNSYLVANIA IS A STATE DEMOCRATS MUST WIN IN NOVEMBER - AND NOW THEY ARE GUARANTEED MONTHS OF UGLY, BLOODY CARPET-BOMBING OF BOTH DEM CANDIDATES, BY EACH OTHER.
Clinton(s) and Obama are now going to spend - what, 40 million dollars? - trashing each other to win their party's voters...but when they leave, the loser will have been savaged so badly that he/she may not be able to win Penn in November.

4. CALENDAR GUARANTEES DEMOCRAT MUTUAL ATTACK, ATTACK, ATTACK.
Q: What kept the dems on page 1 every day since Christmas?
A: weekly election events.
Now there is Nothing until 7 weeks from now.
Q: So, how will Clinton and Obama stay on page 1
A: The only way they can: by making, in the absence of primaries, the only kind of news
that guarantees coverage: attacking each other, leaking into the media bad rumors about each other, etc.
EVERY WEEK WITHOUT A PRIMARY THIS CAMPAIGN GOES ON WILL BE AN UGLY WEEK For Dems.

http://jayseverin.blogspot.com/
 
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I heard a rumor that Peurto rico might throw ALL of its delegates to one person. With 63 delegates, that would mean that they'd have a greater voice in this race than any state so far. They could push Hillary over the top. It's just a rumor though.
 
Watermark said:
I heard a rumor that Peurto rico might throw ALL of its delegates to one person. With 63 delegates, that would mean that they'd have a greater voice in this race than any state so far. They could push Hillary over the top. It's just a rumor though.
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Why does Puerto Rico even have a primary? They can't vote in November.
 
Chapdog said:
1. THE DEM RACE IS NOW OUTSIDE THE HANDS OF VOTERS.
Because of Clinton's Texas-Ohio-Rhode Island success - again establishing presence for her - no single or group of primaries/caucuses is capable of "breaking the race open", for either candidate.
THIS MEANS THE DEM NOMINATION IS NOW VIRTUALLY CERTAIN TO BE SETTLED NOT BY VOTERS, BUT IN COURT OR BY SUPER-DELEGATES.
And that is almost surely going to cause a historic and greatly problematic split in their party; it could cost them the election.

2. SUPER-DELEGATES NOW HAVE A STARK CHOICE: ATTEMPT TO SETTLE THIS RACE "FROM THE INSIDE", OR LET IS FESTER, LINGER, TWIST IN THE WIND FOR MONTHS.
Without forceful - and probably hugely unpopular - intervention from party leaders, the dem race isn't going to swerve al over the map merely until the Pennsylvania primary (7 weeks distant, April 22) - but until at least the June 7 Puerto Rico primary...and quite possibly until after the re-do of both Michigan's and Florida's primaries, which could push this up to the convention.

3. PENNSYLVANIA IS A STATE DEMOCRATS MUST WIN IN NOVEMBER - AND NOW THEY ARE GUARANTEED MONTHS OF UGLY, BLOODY CARPET-BOMBING OF BOTH DEM CANDIDATES, BY EACH OTHER.
Clinton(s) and Obama are now going to spend - what, 40 million dollars? - trashing each other to win their party's voters...but when they leave, the loser will have been savaged so badly that he/she may not be able to win Penn in November.

4. CALENDAR GUARANTEES DEMOCRAT MUTUAL ATTACK, ATTACK, ATTACK.
Q: What kept the dems on page 1 every day since Christmas?
A: weekly election events.
Now there is Nothing until 7 weeks from now.
Q: So, how will Clinton and Obama stay on page 1
A: The only way they can: by making, in the absence of primaries, the only kind of news
that guarantees coverage: attacking each other, leaking into the media bad rumors about each other, etc.
EVERY WEEK WITHOUT A PRIMARY THIS CAMPAIGN GOES ON WILL BE AN UGLY WEEK For Dems.
Click to expand...



Jay Severin is an ass.
 
Well, if Obama can pull off PA, it's a game-changer, and there will be tremendous pressure on Hillary to drop out.

If he can't, he still wins in elected delegates. Everyone assumes the supers are "in the bag" for Clinton, but they're not that stupid. They absolutely, 100% will not vote against the will of the elected delegates & voters. If Obama wins elected delegates, he wins. Period.

I am worried about 3 months of Dems attacking each other, but it could also work the other way. I do see Obama improving as a candidate already, with the way he has responded to Tuesday's losses.
 
gonzojournals said:
Why does Puerto Rico even have a primary? They can't vote in November.
Click to expand...

The Democrats give delegates to Puerto Rico as a state. The Republicans give fewer delegates proportionally. But the general idea is that if they're Americans they should be able to vote. Since they shed their blood for America in far greater proportions than average Americans, it's justifiable. But I can see how a racist fascist like you would disagree.

The only problem would be them casting their vote in a winner take all fashion when all other states had used PR.
 
Watermark said:
The Democrats give delegates to Puerto Rico as a state. The Republicans give fewer delegates proportionally. But the general idea is that if they're Americans they should be able to vote. Since they shed their blood for America in far greater proportions than average Americans, it's justifiable. But I can see how a racist fascist like you would disagree.

The only problem would be them casting their vote in a winner take all fashion when all other states had used PR.
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Puerto Ricans are American citizens (and it has nothing to do with race). Of course, they aren't allowed to vote (not because of the colour of their skins) as long as they live in Puerto Rico. The same would apply to you or me if one of us were to move to Puerto Rico-- we wouldn't be allowed to vote.

The trade-off is that Puerto Ricans can vote if they move to the States, and as long as they live in Puerto Rico (same as any other US citizen) they do not have to pay federal income tax (no taxation without representation, and all that).

So my point is-- why are people voting in the primaries when they are not allowed to vote in the actual election?

It has nothing to do with race or fascism, but I appreciate the attempt WM.
 
gonzojournals said:
Puerto Ricans are American citizens (and it has nothing to do with race). Of course, they aren't allowed to vote (not because of the colour of their skins) as long as they live in Puerto Rico. The same would apply to you or me if one of us were to move to Puerto Rico-- we wouldn't be allowed to vote.

The trade-off is that Puerto Ricans can vote if they move to the States, and as long as they live in Puerto Rico (same as any other US citizen) they do not have to pay federal income tax (no taxation without representation, and all that).

So my point is-- why are people voting in the primaries when they are not allowed to vote in the actual election?

It has nothing to do with race or fascism, but I appreciate the attempt WM.
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Goddammit. I was hoping to play the race card real bad.

The Democrats just like minorities and feel the Ricans are being oppressed.

The Republicans just decided to copy the Democrats because that's what they do.

It's usually not a big deal because their primary is intentionally scheduled last, whenever the nominee is usually decided, and therefore usually has no real weight. The Democrats ridiculously drawn out schedule means that for the first time they may be the deciding factor.
 
Hell, I wish I were as oppressed as the Puerto Ricans-- clear ocean, sunshine all the time, and NO FEDERAL INCOME TAX. The best part is you are still a citizen.

Where can I hand in my voter registration?
 
gonzojournals said:
Hell, I wish I were as oppressed as the Puerto Ricans-- clear ocean, sunshine all the time, and NO FEDERAL INCOME TAX. The best part is you are still a citizen.

Where can I hand in my voter registration?
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Shit, that does actually sound like a good idea. But I don't wanna learn Spanish.
 
Watermark said:
Shit, that does actually sound like a good idea. But I don't wanna learn Spanish.
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You don't have to, most of them speak English as well...plus, if you lived there long enough to be an actual resident, you would pick up Spanish (and it would be smart so you don't look like a huge douchebag).
 
This Primary is VERY BAD for Dems


This primary campaign has generated a lot of interest.

Nearly on a weekly basis, I read that the Democratic parties various fundraising outlets at every level, and its presidential candidates are smashing records for money raising, while Saint McCain is raising peanuts.

Nearly every week, I read stories of unprecedented Democratic voter turnout, new voter registrations, independents overwhelmingly crossing over to vote for Dems, and grass roots organization buildup at the state levels.

Nearly every week, I read about unprecedented expansion of internet donor bases to the Democratic candidates. Swamping anything the repugs have done.

Nearly every week I see the national polls edging up for both Obama and Clinton versus McCain. ABC has Obama up now 12% over McCain, and Clinton up 6% over McCain.

Yes, at some point the negative attack ads and grueling and harsh campaigns could backfire. I don’t deny that. It’s a concern. Yet, I’d like somebody to point to evidence of that actually having happened as of yet.
 
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Cypress said:
This Primary is VERY BAD for Dems


This primary campaign has generated a lot of interest.
Click to expand...

Cypress-- master of tautology.

Nearly on a weekly basis, I read that the Democratic parties various fundraising outlets at every level, and its presidential candidates are smashing records for money raising, while Saint McCain is raising peanuts.
Click to expand...
Indeed-- they are raising lots of money to continue campaigning against each other, while McCain can sit tight until the Democrats decide what the fuck they are doing.

Nearly every week, I read stories of unprecedented Democratic voter turnout, new voter registrations, independents overwhelmingly crossing over to vote for Dems, and grass roots organization buildup at the state levels.
Click to expand...
Because the Democratic party this year is so polarised, people that normally wouldn't vote are coming out.

Nearly every week, I read about unprecedented expansion of internet donor bases to the Democratic candidates. Swamping anything the repugs have done.
Click to expand...
So we are back to money again? If only those dollars weren't being used up in the primary instead of against the Republicans.

Nearly every week I see the national polls edging up for both Obama and Clinton versus McCain. ABC has Obama up now 12% over McCain, and Clinton up 6% over McCain.
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Still a long way to go-- first of all, the Democrats have to choose a candidate. Then, that candidate has to actually campaign against a REPUBLICAN, instead of against a fellow Democrat.

Yes, at some point the negative attack ads and grueling and harsh campaigns could backfire. I don’t deny that. It’s a concern. Yet, I’d like somebody to point to evidence of that actually having happened as of yet.
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So your evidence that the Democrats are doing fine this year is that they are so polarised they are unable to choose a candidate and are pouring all of their money into the primary?

Are you so retarded that you really think McCain is going to be penniless when the actual campaigning starts?
 
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