Trump’s Path to 1237: Post New York

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tsuke

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Trumpian forces scored a huge victory in NY yesterday netting Trump 90 of the 95 delegates available. As you know I predicted 85 for him last time around. Im making a new round of projections now after the YUUUGE win. Ill make one prediction for next tuesday and then two predictions for the next contests. One for the worst case scenario and one I think is plausible. Currently Trump has 846 delegates. It should be pointed out as well that the NY primary should have been bad for Trump as you had to be registered as a Republican 6 months prior preventing any of the new people Trump brings into the party from participating. Video in MSNBC also show democrats attempting to switch to Republican to vote for Trump on the day of but of course were denied.

SUPER SUPER TUESDAY (how many have we had already?)

Trump is of course leading all the polls for the states next Tuesday. I see another very good night for him. Here are my projections.

PA - 17 - Every poll ive seen so far has him winning. The unbound delegates are a pain but at least 17 is sure.

Deleware - 16 - He should win here as well given he has won in the area

Maryland - 32 - Im giving him the win but calling 2 districts for other people like WI

CT - 21 - Same logic calling 2 districts for kasich to be on the safe side.

Were at 943 after Super Tuesday

Worse Case Scenario

In this scenario I just give Trump 40% of proportional races and let him lose most winner take all states except for NJ which I believe he wins based on polling.

NJ - 51 - winner take all

CA - 70 - just gave him 40% of the available delegates.

NM - 10 - 40% again

WA - 17 - 40% again

OR - 12 - 40% again

Indiana - 24 - im giving the win to Cruz despite projections from sites like fivethirtyeight and giving trump some delegates.

WV - 23 - giving trump the win plus some delegates. fivethirty eight projects him to sweep here.

nebraska South Dakota Montana - projecting 0

Total 1150. Ive already stated before that he gets 1150 -1300 and that if he is this close they will give it to him. A number of PA delegates have already said that they will vote for the winner of their district.

Plausible Scenario

I try to incorporate some other experts that show Trump can get higher than 40% in some instances.

NJ - 51 - still calling a win

CA - 94 - going by other expert predictions

WV - 34 - still going by experts

Oregon - 13 - 40% rounded up

Washington - 18 - 40% rounded up

New mexico - 10 - 40% rounded up

Indiana - 36 expert predictions

Ending at 1199.

Trump either has to get higher than 40% in some of the proportional states which is a possibility because he has gotten more than 40% in some nationwide polls or he has to win Nebraska, South Dakota, Montana, or overperform in CA to get the 1237 cleanly. Of course I still think at 1199 they just give it to him.

https://tsukesthoughts.wordpress.com/2016/04/20/trumps-path-to-1237-post-new-york/
 
tsuke said:
View attachment 2880

Trumpian forces scored a huge victory in NY yesterday netting Trump 90 of the 95 delegates available. As you know I predicted 85 for him last time around. Im making a new round of projections now after the YUUUGE win. Ill make one prediction for next tuesday and then two predictions for the next contests. One for the worst case scenario and one I think is plausible. Currently Trump has 846 delegates. It should be pointed out as well that the NY primary should have been bad for Trump as you had to be registered as a Republican 6 months prior preventing any of the new people Trump brings into the party from participating. Video in MSNBC also show democrats attempting to switch to Republican to vote for Trump on the day of but of course were denied.

SUPER SUPER TUESDAY (how many have we had already?)

Trump is of course leading all the polls for the states next Tuesday. I see another very good night for him. Here are my projections.

PA - 17 - Every poll ive seen so far has him winning. The unbound delegates are a pain but at least 17 is sure.

Deleware - 16 - He should win here as well given he has won in the area

Maryland - 32 - Im giving him the win but calling 2 districts for other people like WI

CT - 21 - Same logic calling 2 districts for kasich to be on the safe side.

Were at 943 after Super Tuesday

Worse Case Scenario

In this scenario I just give Trump 40% of proportional races and let him lose most winner take all states except for NJ which I believe he wins based on polling.

NJ - 51 - winner take all

CA - 70 - just gave him 40% of the available delegates.

NM - 10 - 40% again

WA - 17 - 40% again

OR - 12 - 40% again

Indiana - 24 - im giving the win to Cruz despite projections from sites like fivethirtyeight and giving trump some delegates.

WV - 23 - giving trump the win plus some delegates. fivethirty eight projects him to sweep here.

nebraska South Dakota Montana - projecting 0

Total 1150. Ive already stated before that he gets 1150 -1300 and that if he is this close they will give it to him. A number of PA delegates have already said that they will vote for the winner of their district.

Plausible Scenario

I try to incorporate some other experts that show Trump can get higher than 40% in some instances.

NJ - 51 - still calling a win

CA - 94 - going by other expert predictions

WV - 34 - still going by experts

Oregon - 13 - 40% rounded up

Washington - 18 - 40% rounded up

New mexico - 10 - 40% rounded up

Indiana - 36 expert predictions

Ending at 1199.

Trump either has to get higher than 40% in some of the proportional states which is a possibility because he has gotten more than 40% in some nationwide polls or he has to win Nebraska, South Dakota, Montana, or overperform in CA to get the 1237 cleanly. Of course I still think at 1199 they just give it to him.

https://tsukesthoughts.wordpress.com/2016/04/20/trumps-path-to-1237-post-new-york/
Click to expand...

I think you are correct, Trump is very likely the nominee on the first ballot, if he does not make the first ballot I don't think he is the nominee, but after last night first ballot looks likely.

1199 might be a little rosy of a prediction, but not off the wall.
 
Jarod said:
I think you are correct, Trump is very likely the nominee on the first ballot, if he does not make the first ballot I don't think he is the nominee, but after last night first ballot looks likely.

1199 might be a little rosy of a prediction, but not off the wall.
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i think i was porposely a pessimist in giving trump the 1199 honestly. I didnt want to be accused of bias being a trump supporter so I gave conservative numbers. Privately I think the CO and WY thing hurts cruz so much he blows past 1237.
 
tsuke said:
i think i was porposely a pessimist in giving trump the 1199 honestly. I didnt want to be accused of bias being a trump supporter so I gave conservative numbers. Privately I think the CO and WY thing hurts cruz so much he blows past 1237.
Click to expand...

You might be correct, its hard to predict. Regardless of how he ends up with delegates who are locked into their first vote, I think he will get close enough to get enough "unpledged" to get him over in the first ballot.
 
I think you underestimate the strategic significance of last nights win. Both Cruz and Kasich are now mathematically eliminated from winning enough delegates to win the nomination. Both men's only hope is a contested convention which could be hugely damaging to the GOP.

Trump can use this win as a bludgeon and start reconciling with other party leaders that he is now the only sensible choice. He can also use this situation to persuade voters that it is the party's best interest for him to be the nominee and there is some valid reasoning there. It would be quite sensible to rally around Trump, stop the incessant circular firing squad and permit Trump to storm back towards the middle.

If I was a Trump supporter I would be far more optimistic as with his two remaining rivals being eliminated from the delegate count Trump can consolidate this into enough delegates total to win the nomination outright. I'm now betting there won't be a contested convention in Cleveland.
 
Conversely, don't underestimate what a catastrophe last night was for Cruz with the next round of primaries heavily located in the North East. Trump will be going into that region with not only a demographic advantage but with a huge shift in momentum. Last night was an utter catastrophe for Cruz. If Cruz could have managed to pick up 20 to 30 delegates he might have been able to salvage something but he was essentially swept.

I think the following song by a famous New York band pretty much covers what kind of night Ted Cruz had last night.

 
Mott the Hoople said:
I think you underestimate the strategic significance of last nights win. Both Cruz and Kasich are now mathematically eliminated from winning enough delegates to win the nomination. Both men's only hope is a contested convention which could be hugely damaging to the GOP.

Trump can use this win as a bludgeon and start reconciling with other party leaders that he is now the only sensible choice. He can also use this situation to persuade voters that it is the party's best interest for him to be the nominee and there is some valid reasoning there. It would be quite sensible to rally around Trump, stop the incessant circular firing squad and permit Trump to storm back towards the middle.

If I was a Trump supporter I would be far more optimistic as with his two remaining rivals being eliminated from the delegate count Trump can consolidate this into enough delegates total to win the nomination outright. I'm now betting there won't be a contested convention in Cleveland.
Click to expand...

yea but im a trump supporter so i didnt want to be accused of bias. I purposely made very conservative estimates to show that even if things dont go well he will still be the nominee.
 
tsuke said:
yea but im a trump supporter so i didnt want to be accused of bias. I purposely made very conservative estimates to show that even if things dont go well he will still be the nominee.
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Well feel good then cause I"m not a Trump supporter and I'd vote for a Tingantinian Ape before I would consider voting for Trump...or worse...Cruz.
 
I am happy because I prefer Trump to Cruz. On the off chance one of them could get elected, Trump would be the lesser to two tyrants.
 
tsuke said:
Trump either has to get higher than 40% in some of the proportional states which is a possibility because he has gotten more than 40% in some nationwide polls or he has to win Nebraska, South Dakota, Montana, or overperform in CA to get the 1237 cleanly. Of course I still think at 1199 they just give it to him.

https://tsukesthoughts.wordpress.com/2016/04/20/trumps-path-to-1237-post-new-york/
Click to expand...

Why should Republican delegates vote to nominate a Democrat? Why should they ever expected to do such a thing?
 
Mott the Hoople said:
I think you underestimate the strategic significance of last nights win. Both Cruz and Kasich are now mathematically eliminated from winning enough delegates to win the nomination. Both men's only hope is a contested convention which could be hugely damaging to the GOP.

Trump can use this win as a bludgeon and start reconciling with other party leaders that he is now the only sensible choice. He can also use this situation to persuade voters that it is the party's best interest for him to be the nominee and there is some valid reasoning there. It would be quite sensible to rally around Trump, stop the incessant circular firing squad and permit Trump to storm back towards the middle.

If I was a Trump supporter I would be far more optimistic as with his two remaining rivals being eliminated from the delegate count Trump can consolidate this into enough delegates total to win the nomination outright. I'm now betting there won't be a contested convention in Cleveland.
Click to expand...

At the end of the day, Cruz can swipe about 54 unpledged delegates from Pennsylvania. Then he can come out west and sweep Nebraska, Montana and South Dakota, dominate Washington and Oregon, and compete for California and Indiana.
 
Establishment said:
At the end of the day, Cruz can swipe about 54 unpledged delegates from Pennsylvania. Then he can come out west and sweep Nebraska, Montana and South Dakota, dominate Washington and Oregon, and compete for California and Indiana.
Click to expand...

Your getting Trump, dammit!
 
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