UCLA Anderson recession forecast

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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={4A6382B9-90E5-4DD5-A3DA-4CF2B9E21B86}

This is actually giving me a little hope.

Its dire but sees and end to the mess.


The news from the economy is bad," writes UCLA Anderson Forecast Senior Economist David Shulman in an essay entitled, "The Balance Sheet Recession." "The recession we had previously hoped to avoid is now with us in full gale force." The UCLA Anderson Forecast now expects that real Growth Domestic Product (GDP) will decline 4.1% in the current quarter, followed by respective declines of 3.4% and 0.8% in the first two quarters of 2009. In addition, the unemployment rate is forecast to rise from October 2008's 6.5% to 8.5% by late 2009/early 2010. Associated with the rising unemployment rate will be the loss of two million jobs over the next 12 months.
The forecast laid the blame for what it's calling a "nasty recession" on the financial crisis of 2007-2008, noting that the economic circumstances underlying current conditions differed significantly from past recessions. The research center also notes that the "global economy is in its first synchronized recession since the early 1990s," as Europe and Japan are also in recession while China and India are suffering growth slowdowns (which, in turn, negatively impact U.S. exports).
 
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Yah im figuring Q4 and Q1 will be negative GDP and possible Q2. So a 3-4Q of negative GDP recession which is moderate. hardly any type of depression however as I dont see food lines and people dying on the street yet.
 
I sure hope your are right.

Give us one big disastor like they had with the dust bowl during the same years as the economic downturn of the thirties and we could see some very bad times.
 
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