I'm hoping for serious thought among the inevitable partisan humor. :0)
If the current trend holds up, Obama will be re-elected. It would mean that republicans couldn't even beat the black guy with a foreign sounding name and a bad record .. who, according to most republicans, isn't even an American or a christian.
To compound the dilemna that republicans find themselves in, their base is shrinking, and by 2016 they'll have an even less chance of winning national elections than they do now.
One thing for sure, they do not have the ability to conform and adapt to changing demographics and social evolution. Without that ability, their future as a viable counter-balance to the Democratic Party does not look good.
What I predict is a fracturing of the party. The Tea Party wing of the party cannot get along with anything other than themselves. Moderate republicans will have the example of their failures to once again have a voice in the party. I predict that they will fracture, and a third party will emerge on the right.
Thoughts?
First off, you need to undertand the wings properly and you do not. Your division into tea party and moderate is silly and uninformed. The tea party is not a coherent group. The wings are easy to see by considering their standard bearers, the last three standing.
Romney represents the NeoCons and National Greatness Republicans. Funny, enough these include many of the people you probably call moderates. These guys rule the party. They care mostly about preventing their fears of nuclear armageddon and/or maintaining American hegemony and winning. They favor corporate welfare and believe that they can make everybody rich through Keynesianism. They are "pragmatic" and always back the most electable, as long as they can control him.
Paul represents the libertarian wing. You should know what they represent by now, but it has nothing to do with Darla's insanity, so maybe you guys don't. These are the intellectuals and free market idealists. Some of Paul's supporters (conspiracy theorists and anti-trade nuts) were misinformed about what he believed. But he never agreed with them and stated so flatly.
Santorum represents the union sympathetic, racists, homophobes and religious conservatives. These people are just ignorant.
The real uneasiness is between Paul and Santorum. Both benefited from the tea party movement. Santorum held on for the EXPRESSLY stated purpose of denying Paul a speaking spot. Paul stated flatly what he felt about Santorum saying that he "really hates homosexuals." Further, he stated that Bachmann (an early favorite of the Santorum wing before her husband was outed) "really hated muslims."
There is no way this group remains a cohesive whole. You are seriously deluded if you think the people at Reason are going to back Santorum or Romney. They will sit out or vote for Johnson. Santourm's group will vote for anybody but Obama, but they are a drain on the NeoCons and Romney.
So if there is a shakeup, either the Libertarians or Religious Right or going to get kicked to the curb. The Libertarians are not party loyalists. But if the party has a future it is with them. Most young Republicans voted with Paul. The Religious Right are knee jerk reactionaries and will always oppose Democrats. But the RR is toxic and without Libertarians the GOP is left without any viable ideas.