Hey JAROD.... INTRADE UNDER 60% for Obama

Mott the Hoople said:
Not true. Obama can win with out Ohio, though it would be difficult the outs are there. They are not there for Romney. If Romney loses the Buckeye State he's toast.
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well if we are speaking theoretically no... romney could win without ohio if he instead won all of nevada, iowa, NH, or one of those 3 plus WI
 
Superfreak said:
Not true, he still has outs as well, though it would be difficult for him as well. Romney could take NH and WI instead of Ohio and win. Not as easy, but both are well within the margin of error for him to do so. He could also take NV and WI, though NV is looking increasingly unlikely.

The point is that you are wrong. As usual.
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And Obama could lose Ohio but pick up either Colorado or Virginia and still win or he could pick up a combination of just two of these three, NV, IA, NH and he still wins. He has more outs.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
And Obama could lose Ohio but pick up either Colorado or Virginia and still win or he could pick up a combination of just two of these three, NV, IA, NH and he still wins. He has more outs.
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Again... you keep changing what you are talking about. Yes, he has MORE outs. But you said if Romney loses Ohio he is done. That was wrong.

You said that Obama has a two thirds chance of winning. That is wrong.
 
Romney is currently at 43.1% and climbing, as polls reveal Romney maintaining his national lead and gaining ground in swing states.

Poor Jarod.
 
Superfreak said:
Yet his odds went up...
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You are mixing apples and oranges... When talking about debate performance intrade had a special catagory regarding who would in or lose the debate that dropped in real time as the debate was taking place. It went from 35% to like 4% during the hour. Conservatives were out here screaming about how Romney was winning, while intrade was dropping. THe catagory was based on who the CNN poll would say was the winner. You dont even know what you are talking about. Pay attention.
 
Superfreak said:
I understand statistics. The point is that he is no where near that high of a probability given the current situation. With Ohio a 50/50 proposition, if Obama loses that, he is done.
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Then you should put all your money on Romney with Intrade right now!
 
PostmodernProphet said:
so in summary....who gives a fuck about Ohio?.....
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No, you must be illiterate if that is your summary of what he said. Ohio is the best way for the President to end this election, but if he does not get Ohio he has more viable options for winning than Romney has if Romney loses Ohio.
 
Jarod said:
No, you must be illiterate if that is your summary of what he said. Ohio is the best way for the President to end this election, but if he does not get Ohio he has more viable options for winning than Romney has if Romney loses Ohio.
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Uh, no he does not. If Obama loses Ohio, he's also going to lose Florida, Virginia, and Colorado. All of these states are tilting heavily in Romney's direction.

There are a variety of ways Romney can win without Ohio. It would be difficult, but not impossible. But it would be very difficult for Obama to win without Ohio. If he loses Ohio, there will be a reason for it...and that reasoning will inevitably apply to swing states that lean even more heavily GOP than Ohio.
 
Here's one way Romney can win without Ohio...and without NH, for that matter.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=QCo

Romney is currently leading in Maine's 2nd congressional district. Since Maine splits its electoral votes, Romney has a good chance of taking one.

The election could also end up being a tie, in which case we'd end up with Romney as President and either Ryan or Biden as VP, depending on who controls the Senate.
 
Voltaire said:
Uh, no he does not. If Obama loses Ohio, he's also going to lose Florida, Virginia, and Colorado. All of these states are tilting heavily in Romney's direction.

There are a variety of ways Romney can win without Ohio. It would be difficult, but not impossible. But it would be very difficult for Obama to win without Ohio. If he loses Ohio, there will be a reason for it...and that reasoning will inevitably apply to swing states that lean even more heavily GOP than Ohio.
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You are pretending that your "IF" is an absolute and its not. IF you want to play that game, Ill say that IF Obama wins Ohio, then he will also get Texas and that would end the deal!
 
Here is a way President Obama can win without OHIO....


Romney gets OHIO, the President wins the other 49 states and the District of Columbia!
 
Jarod said:
But the President is not going to lose Iowa or Nevada.
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Uh, had you actually looked at the map, you'd see I have the President winning Iowa.

But when it gets down to it, I think the President will lose Iowa. It is currently very close there. And very close isn't good for Obama.
 
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