Hillary slips to +5 in RCP

D

Darth Omar

Russian asset
Sneaking up on Labor Day so slips and trends start to matter more than they did in April or May. +Five is kind of a critical number. It's kind of the border between comfortable lead and statistical tie.

I think the constant barrage of Hillary's scandals are taking a toll on her campaign. Coupled with a more steady [by Trump standards lol] Trump, who finally figured out how to stay on message; a softening of his stances on immigration; the appeals to minorities and etc has caused the race to tighten up a bit.

We'll see if the trend holds. If it does look for the media to become hysterical in trying to take Trump down.
 
I agree this is significant. However if you look at the numbers the only thing bringing that number down to 5% is the discredited L.A. Times Poll. Still the movement in the LA Times poll should be concerning for HRC, in a week or so we will know if this it statistical noise or a real move.

I agree 5% is the border between comfortable lead and a simple lead.

Trump's pivot (that he was NOT going to do) is helping him in my opinion in some sectors where certain people were going to hold their nose and vote for HRC.

Tomorrow will be very interesting to see how far he rearranges his signature issue of immigration, I am sure he wont say the word Amnesty, but will he describe it? I saw today where he was suggesting that the wall was more of a figurative term, that it will not necessarily be a physical wall, but in many places more of a figurative wall, an "electronic wall" or surveillance wall. Funny to me because I seem to remember him saying it would be 60 Feet tall!
 
Jarod said:
I agree this is significant. However if you look at the numbers the only thing bringing that number down to 5% is the discredited L.A. Times Poll. Still the movement in the LA Times poll should be concerning for HRC, in a week or so we will know if this it statistical noise or a real move.

I agree 5% is the border between comfortable lead and a simple lead.

Trump's pivot (that he was NOT going to do) is helping him in my opinion in some sectors where certain people were going to hold their nose and vote for HRC.

Tomorrow will be very interesting to see how far he rearranges his signature issue of immigration, I am sure he wont say the word Amnesty, but will he describe it? I saw today where he was suggesting that the wall was more of a figurative term, that it will not necessarily be a physical wall, but in many places more of a figurative wall, an "electronic wall" or surveillance wall. Funny to me because I seem to remember him saying it would be 60 Feet tall!
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Yeah, but which outliers do you throw out? The ones that have it close for Trump or the ones that have Hillary up double digits?
 
cawacko said:
We have an electoral college though so these polls mean very little.
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They mean little other than the fact that the State poll averages tend to follow the national trend, if this is a trend and not statistical noise.

Fivethirtyeight, whos mechanism for predicting the race has historically proven fairly accurate shows HRC breaching the 80% chance area into the 70's for the first time in a long while. I expect we are about to see a shift in HRC's tactic of staying in the background and watching Trump self destruct. She is going to start more aggressively campaigning.
 
When Mrs. Clinton became secretary of state, the Obama administration tried to draw a line between the foundation, particularly its foreign-government sponsors, and her role. The new emails underscore that this effort was at best partly successful. “Pay-to-play” charges by Donald Trump have not been proved. But the emails and previous reporting suggest Mr. Trump has reason to say that while Mrs. Clinton was secretary, it was hard to tell where the foundation ended and the State Department began.


Mrs. Clinton became involved in State Department deals and negotiations that also involved foundation donors or board members. She prompted multiple investigations with an arrangement that allowed Huma Abedin, her deputy chief of staff at the State Department and now vice chairwoman of her campaign, to be paid simultaneously by the State Department, the foundation and Teneo, a consulting firm run by Doug Band, the former adviser to Mr. Clinton who helped create the foundation — and who sent emails to Ms. Abedin seeking favors for foundation donors.

The newly disclosed emails show that some foundation donors and friends, like Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad bin al-Khalifa of Bahrain, used foundation channels to seek access to Mrs. Clinton.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/30/opinion/cutting-ties-to-the-clinton-foundation.html
 
Darth Hussein Omar said:
Yeah, but which outliers do you throw out? The ones that have it close for Trump or the ones that have Hillary up double digits?
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Its not the fact that the LA Times is an outlier, I think when you are averaging polls you don't throw out polls simply for being outliers. The problem is the Methodology, Nate Silver has a great article explaining the difference in methodology between the LA Times poll and most of the others. He says some things are good and some are bad, he chose to include it in his predictive analysis but with less weight than some other polls he feels are more accurate.
 
anatta said:
Clinton Foundation/her continual hiding instead of campaigning/Trumps recent sanity..yep
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Well, that's always been Trump's formula hasn't it? For weeks and months Trump couldn't keep out of his own way instead of focusing on Hillary's negatives.

On paper, Trump should be favored in this. The economy doesn't poll well and Hillary is status quo Obama. Most people think the country is headed in the wrong direction: Hillary, status quo again. The Middle East has gone done the shitter under Obama AND Hillary. More status quo under Hillary.

If it's Trump vs status quo, Trump should be ahead. But he's allowed the media to deflect from Hillary's negatives. In fact, he's been their main enabler.

It's been frustrating to watch at times.
 
anatta said:
When Mrs. Clinton became secretary of state, the Obama administration tried to draw a line between the foundation, particularly its foreign-government sponsors, and her role. The new emails underscore that this effort was at best partly successful. “Pay-to-play” charges by Donald Trump have not been proved. But the emails and previous reporting suggest Mr. Trump has reason to say that while Mrs. Clinton was secretary, it was hard to tell where the foundation ended and the State Department began.


Mrs. Clinton became involved in State Department deals and negotiations that also involved foundation donors or board members. She prompted multiple investigations with an arrangement that allowed Huma Abedin, her deputy chief of staff at the State Department and now vice chairwoman of her campaign, to be paid simultaneously by the State Department, the foundation and Teneo, a consulting firm run by Doug Band, the former adviser to Mr. Clinton who helped create the foundation — and who sent emails to Ms. Abedin seeking favors for foundation donors.

The newly disclosed emails show that some foundation donors and friends, like Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad bin al-Khalifa of Bahrain, used foundation channels to seek access to Mrs. Clinton.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/30/opinion/cutting-ties-to-the-clinton-foundation.html
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Was it not her job to meet with people like the Crown Prince?
 
Darth Hussein Omar said:
Well, that's always been Trump's formula hasn't it? For weeks and months Trump couldn't keep out of his own way instead of focusing on Hillary's negatives.

On paper, Trump should be favored in this. The economy doesn't poll well and Hillary is status quo Obama. Most people think the country is headed in the wrong direction: Hillary, status quo again. The Middle East has gone done the shitter under Obama AND Hillary. More status quo under Hillary.

If it's Trump vs status quo, Trump should be ahead. But he's allowed the media to deflect from Hillary's negatives. In fact, he's been their main enabler.

It's been frustrating to watch at times.
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On paper in many ways the Republican should be ahead, but Trumps bombastic and unstable personality has caused many Americans serious pause. Many would rather someone they believe is corrupt but stable over someone who is likely seriously mentally ill and unstable.
 
anatta said:
,,,
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I saw that, my response is to ask if it was not her job as Secretary of State to meet with people like the Crown Prince?

.... Why does it matter what "channels" he used to request a meeting? Maybe in his Kingdom that's hoe meeting are generally set up?
 
Jarod said:
On paper in many ways the Republican should be ahead, but Trumps bombastic and unstable personality has caused many Americans serious pause. Many would rather someone they believe is corrupt but stable over someone who is likely seriously mentally ill and unstable.
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Trump isn't mentally ill lol. But that's exactly the kind of breathless hyperbole we'll get from media, if, Trump were to tighten things up or, gasp lol, take a lead in the polls.

The media will do everything in their power to knock Trump down and drag Hillary, as corrupt as she is, across the line.

The back story in this is the national media has lost all credibility. I don't know how many of them can call themselves journalists with a straight face.
 
Jarod said:
I saw that, my response is to ask if it was not her job as Secretary of State to meet with people like the Crown Prince?

.... Why does it matter what "channels" he used to request a meeting? Maybe in his Kingdom that's hoe meeting are generally set up?
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really? He may be king ,but he's just another foreign gov't as far as State goes
. But as far as the Clinton Foundation goes -he's a Big Donor. And Big Donors can go thru the Clinton Foundation for access.
 
Darth Hussein Omar said:
Trump isn't mentally ill lol. But that's exactly the kind of breathless hyperbole we'll get from media, if, Trump were to tighten things up or, gasp lol, take a lead in the polls.

The media will do everything in their power to knock Trump down and drag Hillary, as corrupt as she is, across the line.

The back story in this is the national media has lost all credibility. I don't know how many of them can call themselves journalists with a straight face.
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Republicans have been saying that as far back as I can remember. Remember George Bush, Sr.'s slogan... "annoy the media, vote for Bush"?

Trump has displayed many symptoms of a lack of touch with reality. He clearly illustrates symptoms of Narcissistic Personality Disorder. Look it up and see if you agree! The guy is not dumb, but he keeps self sabotaging which is also indicative of mental illness. I am concerned about the self sabotaging when his success is tied in with the success of the United States.
 
Darth Hussein Omar said:
Sneaking up on Labor Day so slips and trends start to matter more than they did in April or May. +Five is kind of a critical number. It's kind of the border between comfortable lead and statistical tie.

I think the constant barrage of Hillary's scandals are taking a toll on her campaign. Coupled with a more steady [by Trump standards lol] Trump, who finally figured out how to stay on message; a softening of his stances on immigration; the appeals to minorities and etc has caused the race to tighten up a bit.

We'll see if the trend holds. If it does look for the media to become hysterical in trying to take Trump down.
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LOL LOL LOL

Keep wishing there Darth and maybe Santa will bring a Dodge Charger too! LOL LOL LOL

Darth, the math is impossible. There simply aren't enough uninformed rednecks to get Trump elected. :)
 
Milagro said:
This is so reminiscent of the hysteria surrounding Brexit, incredible really.
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I'd like to know how? This has been one of the most boring Presidential campaigns ever. It's not even close to the hilarity of the primaries. Both candidates are quite unpopular but one far more so than the other that the one, Clinton, has a dominating lead in the electoral college. That and early voting starts soon. I just don't see a path for Trump out of the hole he's dug. He's alienated far to many people. Clinton may not be well loved and she does make conservative mens heads explode but without the womens vote (and Trump is far, far behind in the womens vote) conservative mens vote are simply not determinative.
 
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