Moody's Analytics only got it wrong once since 1980. I wonder what year that was?
Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
- Thread starter Grokmaster
- Start date
reagansghost
eternal
Trump rally looking pretty sad, where ARE those crowds from yesteryear?
Eagle_Eye
Well-known member
Oh but the electors for a specific candidate are chosen by popular vote in each state.
Moody's has been right EVERY ELECTION SINCE 1980....the ONLY "MISS" THEY HAD , LIKE EVERY OTHER PUNDIT, WAS TRUMP, 2016.
They KNOW BETTER NOW....ENJOY!!
Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
President Donald Trump has a love/hate relationship with polls, surveys and predictions. He loves the ones that paint him in a positive light, and, of course, he hates all those “fake” ones that don’t.
He’s going to absolutely adore this one.
According to Moody’s Analytics, Trump is headed toward another four years in the White House. And, if the numbers are right, it won’t even be close.
In fact, his Electoral College victory could very well be wider than the 304-227 margin he enjoyed over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.
Since 1980, Moody’s has managed to nail the outcome every time but once — like many, it didn’t see Trump coming.
“In our post-mortem of the 2016 presidential election model,” the report said, “we determined that unexpected turnout patterns were one of the factors that contributed to the model’s first incorrect election prediction.” Here’s Moody’s track record, including a 2016 adjustment for the turnout variable:
Moody’s uses three models to come up with its forecast. In each case, Trump gets at least 289 Electoral College votes.
The “pocketbook” measure, which focus on how people feel about their money situation, is where Trump shines brightest, grabbing a whopping 351 electoral votes. “If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report said.
The stock-market model gives him the slightest edge of 289-249, as investors continue to navigate a volatile investing landscape. Then there’s the unemployment model, which leans heavily in his favor at 332-206.
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/50180bc8-1303-3cb6-99e9-2cfa7642bb28/trump-in-a-landslide?-this.html
Right on, Mr. Moody.
reagansghost
eternal
is it a 'historically accurate' model for impeached incumbents?
The EC is antiquated, regardless of who is running or what party they are from, it doesn't reflect the country, based on geography not people, even the Founding Fathers had their doubts
One more election in the near future with similar results should merit a serious look at the EC
Odd technicalities???? You mean, the way Presidents have ALWAYS won elections? STFU you boorish asswhipe. You're too stupid for words.
We don't; that's why Hillary and the Party of the Jackass is losing. Will you kill yourself in 2020 or just self deport to Cuba? I'm hoping for you killing yourself. I'll buy the fucking ammo.
You never do. You're a nobody. You'll always be a nobody. You're a moron. You will always be a moron. No one will miss you. No one would care. The worlds collective IQ would increase and it would save the valuable oxygen you waste with every breath.
No, just the EC, antiquated, just as the Third Amendmemt is antiquated
Nixon vs. Agnew: Nixon got 520 electoral votes, biggest margin ever and 60.7% of the popular vote.
