Climate predictions

T

tinfoil

Banned
http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=74903
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080104091616.htm
http://uk.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUKTRE4BT49G20081230

Please take a look at the links just see the headlines.

Now look at this graph
warming

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/

How many times do they get to predict the same thing? Ridiculous.
 
It will be warmer in some areas for a period of time and cooler in other areas for unspecified periods of time.
 
tinfoil said:
http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=74903
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080104091616.htm
http://uk.reuters.com/article/environmentNews/idUKTRE4BT49G20081230

Please take a look at the links just see the headlines.

Now look at this graph
warming

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/warming/

How many times do they get to predict the same thing? Ridiculous.
Click to expand...

global climate change is happening.

climate extremes are increasing - hotter summers and cooler winters depending on what part of the world you are talking about

how long this will continue is the real question

overall, the world is getting warmer and ice is melting

crops will not do as well in most places as they used to

diseases and insects related to temperature will move north and south from the equator

it has happened before and will happen again

might be time to invest in farmland in greenland

oth, the north american north east, the area bounded by the former united kingdom and western europe may get colder - it depends on which climate models you want to bet on

with any luck my life will have expired before it gets to bad for me, but my descendants will not be so lucky
 
US
they are making (have made) specific predictions which have failed to come true. What other branch of science can be consistantly wrong?
 
overall, the world is getting warmer and ice is melting

Ridiculous! do you even keep up on the latest findings? I posted the fucking graph above. We have not had warming in over a decade despite an increase of CO2 concentration. If CO2 was the driver of the climate, would we not have seen temps follow CO2 concentration?
 
tinfoil said:
overall, the world is getting warmer and ice is melting

Ridiculous! do you even keep up on the latest findings? I posted the fucking graph above. We have not had warming in over a decade despite an increase of CO2 concentration. If CO2 was the driver of the climate, would we not have seen temps follow CO2 concentration?
Click to expand...

first, meteorology is still in its infancy as a science

second, the chart that you posted showed an increase in world temperature

third, what about the shrinking north polar ice cap and the opening of a navigable northern passage above canada or the reduction of snow in various places as reported by ski resorts
 
DonQuixote said:
first, meteorology is still in its infancy as a science

second, the chart that you posted showed an increase in world temperature

third, what about the shrinking north polar ice cap and the opening of a navigable northern passage above canada or the reduction of snow in various places as reported by ski resorts
Click to expand...

We've had warming since 1998, the peak el nino year? LOL you really don't even bother with new findings, do you?
 
DonQuixote said:
global climate change is happening.

climate extremes are increasing - hotter summers and cooler winters depending on what part of the world you are talking about

how long this will continue is the real question

overall, the world is getting warmer and ice is melting

crops will not do as well in most places as they used to

diseases and insects related to temperature will move north and south from the equator

it has happened before and will happen again

might be time to invest in farmland in greenland

oth, the north american north east, the area bounded by the former united kingdom and western europe may get colder - it depends on which climate models you want to bet on

with any luck my life will have expired before it gets to bad for me, but my descendants will not be so lucky
Click to expand...

This is ridiculous, were it not for global warming much of North America, including crop growing areas would be covered in glaciers and unable to grow shit.
You live in warm California Don instead of colder parts of America, so obviously YOU don't REALLY consider it worse do you.
 
tinfoil said:
We've had warming since 1998, the peak el nino year? LOL you really don't even bother with new findings, do you?
Click to expand...

since i live near the coast in central ca, yes, i do pay attention to el ninos and la ninas

predicting what causes changes in ocean currents is also a chancy thing, but when an el nino or la nina occurs i can tell because the rainfall where i live goes up when there is an el nino and down when there is a la nina

the rain/snow fall in the sierra nevada is also impacted - however, we have had a decrease in the amount of snow and an increase in rain which is bad for ca water storage - these are sometimes transient but there has been a trend of late - still, it is a short term trend at this time, but not a good one for ca
 
tinfoil said:
Glaciers are growing in the western states despite global warming.

I think you are misinformed. http://www.thewhig.com/ArticleDisplayGenContent.aspx?e=6832
Click to expand...

i tend to look at the overall climate reports

worldwide, some glaciers are growing but more are shrinking - this happens

you seem to have a vested interest in this matter

whatever happens to the world climate effect me in terms of the price of food and such local weather

there is just too short a time line to speak effectively on the subject except to note that some areas are warmer than they were in recent times and some cooler

this is why i refer to it as global climate change

some say that without the greenhouse gases we would be in another ice age or mini-ice age - some prefer to note changes in the incident solar radiation as the cause of warming

the chart you posted regarding northern ice says that the ice retreats during the summer and increase during the winter - gee, you think

it may be fun to debate this, but if you are uptight because people are trying to reduce CO2 emissions, the amount of CO2 and methane in the atmosphere has increased - what effect this will have on global climate is conjecture

now if you want to look at comparisons over centuries, then you would have a better picture of any trend - as i said before, it depends on which model you think is correct

personally, i do not think we have enough solid data to really speak knowledgeably on the subject

also, i doubt that the nations of the world will try or even be able to do anything effective

now if you are interested in checking what is going on, then look at mean temperatures world wide over the last millennium - same for snow and ice coverage

for example, what caused the mini-ice age and why did the arable land in greenland shrink - why did the nile river fail to flood for a few decades a few thousand years ago

geologically and climatically speaking the human race has been on this ball of mud for less than an eye blink

nature does not care about us - a more important problem is that we are drowning in our own waste and have a population problem that dwarfs anything else
 
for example, what caused the mini-ice age and why did the arable land in greenland shrink - why did the nile river fail to flood for a few decades a few thousand years ago


Solar cycles, earth orbit eccentricity, and cosmic ray flux due to sun spot cycles.

CO2 concentration is an effect of warming oceans not absorbing as much natural CO2 as they did when they were cooler. Cooling oceans will sequester more CO2 than warmer waters.
 
tinfoil said:
for example, what caused the mini-ice age and why did the arable land in greenland shrink - why did the nile river fail to flood for a few decades a few thousand years ago


Solar cycles, earth orbit eccentricity, and cosmic ray flux due to sun spot cycles.

CO2 concentration is an effect of warming oceans not absorbing as much natural CO2 as they did when they were cooler. Cooling oceans will sequester more CO2 than warmer waters.
Click to expand...

a bigger problem is the the reduction of the ocean's ph caused by CO2 absorption - the effect on smallest lifeforms that comprise the beginning of the ocean's food chain is reducing their number - if they cannot adapt fast enough, we are all screwed - good night all
 
The fact is we just plain do not know what the heck is going on. Ice seems to be melting. Mean global temperatures seem to be on the rise - AT PRESENT. It could turn around tomorrow. Or this time next year. Or it could take 100 years, and wait until Greenland is 95% exposed in the summer, THEN turn around. OR, it could keep going until the Earth returns to the global climate of 65 million years ago.

We haven't a foggy clue what drives the climate, let alone what causes it to change (relatively) suddenly. We can point to phenomena like El Niño or La Niña to predict coming precipitation patterns - AFTER one or the other shows up - but not before. Nor can we predict beyond a six month window which one will show up the following year.

The lack of any genuine predictive knowledge of the energy economy of global climate is the biggest reason the entire man-made global warming scare is/was a fucking bag of hot, politically motivated wind. How the hell can any real scientist claim man is having an effect on global climate patterns when we haven't a clue what naturally causes changes in global climate patterns? It's assinine to 12 decimal places.
 
DonQuixote said:
a bigger problem is the the reduction of the ocean's ph caused by CO2 absorption - the effect on smallest lifeforms that comprise the beginning of the ocean's food chain is reducing their number - if they cannot adapt fast enough, we are all screwed - good night all
Click to expand...
I though CO2 was being released by the oceans: higher water temps = less dissolved gases, including CO2. It's one of the hypotheses explaining why, according to the ice core studies, temperature increases preceded increased atmospheric CO2.

Anyway, the Earth has gone through how many changes like we are seeing now over the last million years or so? Yet somehow humans - or their predecessors - managed to hang on.

The last minor extinction event (estimates of around 9-10% of oceanic species went extinct in a short time) happened about 28 million years ago. The last MAJOR extinction event was the end of the Dinosaurs. Yet we have records indicating worse and more rapid climate changes than we are currently experiencing. In short, the biosphere is a lot tougher than people give it credit for.
 
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Good Luck said:
The fact is we just plain do not know what the heck is going on. Ice seems to be melting. Mean global temperatures seem to be on the rise - AT PRESENT. It could turn around tomorrow. Or this time next year. Or it could take 100 years, and wait until Greenland is 95% exposed in the summer, THEN turn around. OR, it could keep going until the Earth returns to the global climate of 65 million years ago.

We haven't a foggy clue what drives the climate, let alone what causes it to change (relatively) suddenly. We can point to phenomena like El Niño or La Niña to predict coming precipitation patterns - AFTER one or the other shows up - but not before. Nor can we predict beyond a six month window which one will show up the following year.

The lack of any genuine predictive knowledge of the energy economy of global climate is the biggest reason the entire man-made global warming scare is/was a fucking bag of hot, politically motivated wind. How the hell can any real scientist claim man is having an effect on global climate patterns when we haven't a clue what naturally causes changes in global climate patterns? It's assinine to 12 decimal places.
Click to expand...

That's exactly how I feel.

I've not seen a single environmental study that hadn't reeked of political motivation and a wish for a larger appropriated sum of money.

The late Michael Crichton once compared environmentalists to extreme fundamentalist Christians. I think he had something there.
 
I agree that acidification may be a bigger problem than anthropogenic forcing. I couldn't find it right now, sorry, but I have read that phytoplankton production of carbonite ( I may have the term wrong) increased in a greater than linear manner to the increases in CO2 suggesting a possible ocean mechanism for sequestering increses in CO2. I will try again to find the study. It wasn't just an article, it was a study hosted at NOAA. Can't find it. I must have the byproduct name wrong. carbonate? I'll try that

found it!

http://66.102.1.104/scholar?hl=en&l...ical+carbon+consumption+in+a+high+CO2+ocean"+
 
Good Luck said:
The fact is we just plain do not know what the heck is going on. Ice seems to be melting. Mean global temperatures seem to be on the rise - AT PRESENT. It could turn around tomorrow. Or this time next year. Or it could take 100 years, and wait until Greenland is 95% exposed in the summer, THEN turn around. OR, it could keep going until the Earth returns to the global climate of 65 million years ago.

We haven't a foggy clue what drives the climate, let alone what causes it to change (relatively) suddenly. We can point to phenomena like El Niño or La Niña to predict coming precipitation patterns - AFTER one or the other shows up - but not before. Nor can we predict beyond a six month window which one will show up the following year.

The lack of any genuine predictive knowledge of the energy economy of global climate is the biggest reason the entire man-made global warming scare is/was a fucking bag of hot, politically motivated wind. How the hell can any real scientist claim man is having an effect on global climate patterns when we haven't a clue what naturally causes changes in global climate patterns? It's assinine to 12 decimal places.
Click to expand...

It's not as simple as the term climate model might suggest. I don't think we have the ability to create an accurate model. Sun cycles are well documented and correlate fairly well with temps. The cosmic ray flux correlation is being confirmed while CO2 correlation is further deviating.

Tim patterson has a great video where he explains the solar sunspot and cosmic ray theories while providing the proxies and describing the methods and limitations of the research. It's a great video if you want to understand the alternatives to CO2 theory.

 
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