Should Biden run again?

Mott the Hoople said:
And how would that help Democrats? Biden’s failures would still be attached to the Democratic candidate and they lose the power of the incumbency and the inevitable primary challenge as to who would replace him would hurt Democrats as much as losing the power of the incumbency.

If the election were to occur next month I feel fairly confident Biden would win. He has a few major strikes against but he would need even more strikes against him than he currently has.

Losing the midterms is certainly a blow against Biden but it’s not as big a blow as losing the incumbency which is twice as bad because of the contested primary that would almost inevitably result.

The polls are almost meaningless as predictors due to small sample sizes and inherent bias and confirmation bias. So it wouldn’t be logical to base his decision on poll results unless they are very lopsided. Which is unlikely to happen given that Biden’s opponent would be Trump or a Trump sycophant.

So as of right now Biden is sitting in a pretty good position to get re-elected. Even assuming Democrats lose the midterms, as many are currently predicting, the only other real strike against Biden currently is he’s as charismatic as a bowl of cold porridge. The GOP isn’t exactly better in that department.

Inflation alone isn’t going to hurt Biden’s chances as last long as we’re seeing significant real economic growth, which we are. Unless that changes, and it could, but it hasn’t yet and all Biden needs to do to win on the economic front is to not let the economy fall into recession while maintaining modest economic growth and he wins on the economic front.

In addition if before his term is up there is a resolution to the Ukrainian/Russian situation that is successful for NATO and the economy stabilizes then Biden would almost certainly be re-elected.

So as the situation currently is Biden would probably win. A lot of things would have to change before Biden would be at a disadvantage so, health permitting, why wouldn’t he run with the significant advantages he currently has in addition to his incumbency?

Don’t get me wrong. Those changes could happen but until they do Biden would be crazy not to run unless he has a serious health issue.
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Yup
 
Mott the Hoople said:
I believe your answer to be wrong. It would only hurt Democrats chances of retaining the White House. If Biden were to, God forbid, die from an illness before his term was up that would be a different story but even then it wouldn’t help though it wouldn’t hurt either.

Having the sitting President as the incumbent candidate is a significant advantage.

Biden is actually sitting in a fairly good position and it would be even better if the GOP re-nominates Trump.

Biden is sitting in a fairly decent position when measured by metrics and not polls and using the metrics is proving to be a better predictor than polls.

Biden currently has three metrics in which he needs to win only one to get re-elected unless something drastically changes between now and the election. They are;

The economy during the election year. If the nation does not enter into a recession during the election year that would favor Biden. There’s no real way of predicting if that will be the case. We have wait till election year.

Next is what happens in the Ukraine. If before the next election the situation is resolved in the Ukraine and is perceived as a NATO victory the it will be a U.S. Victory and that will again benefit Biden.

Third is long term economic growth. If the average real economic growth is equal to or greater than the average of the two terms before Biden’s then that metric would favor Biden. As it stands right now Biden is winning that metric despite high inflation. Though that could change if he doesn’t find a way to manage inflation.

If Biden wins just one of those metrics his odds of his winning re-election are pretty good.

If he wins two of those three metrics he’s almost certain to win. Conversely if he loses all three metrics he will almost certainly lose.

If Biden does not run then the Democratic candidate will need to win two of those metrics to win. If another Democratic candidate makes a significant primary run against Biden the regardless of who wins Democrats will need to win all three of those metrics unless his primary challenger is extremely charismatic and wins the nomination. Then Democrats would still need to win two of those metrics. Seeing the current crop of Democratic potential primary candidates that’s unlikely to happen. Though it’s a possibility.

So no, I think you’re wrong. I think that if Biden’s health permits he should run as that would give Democrats the greater probability of winning.
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I was not saying he was unlikely to win. I agree he is in a good position for likely reelection, as it is today. I simply would prefer someone younger and more progressive. I not changing horses because I think he will fail at reelection, it’s way too far away for any predictions on that.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
I believe your answer to be wrong. It would only hurt Democrats chances of retaining the White House. If Biden were to, God forbid, die from an illness before his term was up that would be a different story but even then it wouldn’t help though it wouldn’t hurt either.

Having the sitting President as the incumbent candidate is a significant advantage.

Biden is actually sitting in a fairly good position and it would be even better if the GOP re-nominates Trump.

Biden is sitting in a fairly decent position when measured by metrics and not polls and using the metrics is proving to be a better predictor than polls.

Biden currently has three metrics in which he needs to win only one to get re-elected unless something drastically changes between now and the election. They are;

The economy during the election year. If the nation does not enter into a recession during the election year that would favor Biden. There’s no real way of predicting if that will be the case. We have wait till election year.

Next is what happens in the Ukraine. If before the next election the situation is resolved in the Ukraine and is perceived as a NATO victory the it will be a U.S. Victory and that will again benefit Biden.

Third is long term economic growth. If the average real economic growth is equal to or greater than the average of the two terms before Biden’s then that metric would favor Biden. As it stands right now Biden is winning that metric despite high inflation. Though that could change if he doesn’t find a way to manage inflation.

If Biden wins just one of those metrics his odds of his winning re-election are pretty good.

If he wins two of those three metrics he’s almost certain to win. Conversely if he loses all three metrics he will almost certainly lose.

If Biden does not run then the Democratic candidate will need to win two of those metrics to win. If another Democratic candidate makes a significant primary run against Biden the regardless of who wins Democrats will need to win all three of those metrics unless his primary challenger is extremely charismatic and wins the nomination. Then Democrats would still need to win two of those metrics. Seeing the current crop of Democratic potential primary candidates that’s unlikely to happen. Though it’s a possibility.

So no, I think you’re wrong. I think that if Biden’s health permits he should run as that would give Democrats the greater probability of winning.
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I agree about the power of incumbency but at the same time, since Carter, you have Regan, Clinton, Bush and Obama who won re-election and Carter, Bush Sr and Trump who lost re-election. A 4-3 record. That’s still in the positive but far from fait accompli.
 
cawacko said:
Strong economic growth? We just had negative GDP growth in the 1st qtr, the stock market almost hit bear market territory and we have the highest inflation in 40 years. Those conditions are not usually correlated with strong growth.

The job market has been very good but that’s not going to continue at near the same pace. The Fed increasing rates as they are is going to slow the economy by design along with quantitative tightening we are going to see companies institute hiring freezes, reduce hours and then lay folks off. We’re already seeing it happening in the tech world.

And there is lots of talk about falling into recession. The Fed is of course trying to engineer a soft landing but that is easier said than done. Inflation is brutal and Powell has indicated he will do what he can to go after it. He’s no Paul Volker but he seems like he’s determined.

These are just economic realities.
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The presidential election is more than two years away?!? You thing we are facing a two year recession?
 
Mott the Hoople said:
I believe your answer to be wrong. It would only hurt Democrats chances of retaining the White House. If Biden were to, God forbid, die from an illness before his term was up that would be a different story but even then it wouldn’t help though it wouldn’t hurt either.

Having the sitting President as the incumbent candidate is a significant advantage.

Biden is actually sitting in a fairly good position and it would be even better if the GOP re-nominates Trump.

Biden is sitting in a fairly decent position when measured by metrics and not polls and using the metrics is proving to be a better predictor than polls.

Biden currently has three metrics in which he needs to win only one to get re-elected unless something drastically changes between now and the election. They are;

The economy during the election year. If the nation does not enter into a recession during the election year that would favor Biden. There’s no real way of predicting if that will be the case. We have wait till election year.

Next is what happens in the Ukraine. If before the next election the situation is resolved in the Ukraine and is perceived as a NATO victory the it will be a U.S. Victory and that will again benefit Biden.

Third is long term economic growth. If the average real economic growth is equal to or greater than the average of the two terms before Biden’s then that metric would favor Biden. As it stands right now Biden is winning that metric despite high inflation. Though that could change if he doesn’t find a way to manage inflation.

If Biden wins just one of those metrics his odds of his winning re-election are pretty good.

If he wins two of those three metrics he’s almost certain to win. Conversely if he loses all three metrics he will almost certainly lose.

If Biden does not run then the Democratic candidate will need to win two of those metrics to win. If another Democratic candidate makes a significant primary run against Biden the regardless of who wins Democrats will need to win all three of those metrics unless his primary challenger is extremely charismatic and wins the nomination. Then Democrats would still need to win two of those metrics. Seeing the current crop of Democratic potential primary candidates that’s unlikely to happen. Though it’s a possibility.

So no, I think you’re wrong. I think that if Biden’s health permits he should run as that would give Democrats the greater probability of winning.
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Mott, the likelihood is there is going to be the mother of all recessions. I sincerely hope not but it's looking more and more likely all the time.
 
Jarod said:
The presidential election is more than two years away?!? You thing we are facing a two year recession?
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1) even though we had negative growth in the 1st Qtr that’s not a guarantee a recession will start immediately

2) the discussion is about whether Biden will run again. That determination will be made well before November 2024. If there’s going to be a change from Biden, low poll numbers and a recession in 2023 could be the impetus
 
BidenPresident said:
Trump used violence to try and overthrow the government. He needs to be prosecuted.
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Agreed. It's treason. All of his staff who helped are traitors and should be treated accordingly.

4vms7DR.jpg
 
cawacko said:
1) even though we had negative growth in the 1st Qtr that’s not a guarantee a recession will start immediately

2) the discussion is about whether Biden will run again. That determination will be made well before November 2024. If there’s going to be a change from Biden, low poll numbers and a recession in 2023 could be the impetus
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It’s actually not an indication a recession will happen at all!

Anyone calculating understands that 2+ years is a lifetime for electoral politics.
 
Jarod said:
It’s actually not an indication a recession will happen at all!

Anyone calculating understands that 2+ years is a lifetime for electoral politics.
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Generally, recessions are defined as two quarters in a row of negative GDP growth. So having one quarter negative does not guarantee a second one will follow but you can’t have the latter without the first. It’s possible the Fed pulls offs a soft landing. We’re not guaranteed a recession but many economic indicators point to one.

You’re acting like political parties pick their candidate the night of the general election (Nov 2024). I’m not sure the confusion here. Primaries start well before that and if the decision is made that either Biden is not going to run (or someone is going to challenge him ala Buchanan to Bush Sr) that will be made in 2023.
 
cawacko said:
Generally, recessions are defined as two quarters in a row of negative GDP growth. So having one quarter negative does not guarantee a second one will follow but you can’t have the latter without the first. It’s possible the Fed pulls offs a soft landing. We’re not guaranteed a recession but many economic indicators point to one.

You’re acting like political parties pick their candidate the night of the general election (Nov 2024). I’m not sure the confusion here. Primaries start well before that and if the decision is made that either Biden is not going to run (or someone is going to challenge him ala Buchanan to Bush Sr) that will be made in 2023.
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You don’t seem to understand that it’s currently June of 22’
 
cawacko said:
I’m well aware of that Jarod. What is the confusion over what I am stating?
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I am simply pointing out that when Biden and his advisors are considering his chances if they are considering the economy it will be based how they believe it will be in 2024, not on how it is n 2022. Same with those considering challenging him.
 
Jarod said:
I am simply pointing out that when Biden and his advisors are considering his chances if they are considering the economy it will be based how they believe it will be in 2024, not on how it is n 2022. Same with those considering challenging him.
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If Biden has low poll numbers in 2023 and there’s a recession decisions to run are not likely to make based upon “well the CBO says we could have 1.5% GDP growth in 2024.”
 
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