Now we'll see just how strong Trumpnomics 2.0 is proving them be.
US Quarter 2 Initial Economic Report Due Today
- Thread starter Grokmaster
- Start date
The U.S. economy experienced a growth rate of 2.8% in the second quarter (April-June), according to the latest GDP report. This represents a significant acceleration compared to the 1.4% growth seen in the first quarter. The increase was driven by robust consumer and business spending, which offset declines in housing construction and a widening trade gap,
Are you sure? I think you are wrong.
OK, let's start with the obvious, 2025 q1 was negative, so not 1.4%. There is almost no one estimating 2.8% for q2, and it has not been announced. So where did you come up with this?
A simple search shows that it was stolen from an article about 2024, q1 and q2 of 2024. That was back when Biden was President. trump will not have as good of numbers of Biden. That is just a fact.
It is sad that you would try to mislead us with this garbage, but I am not surprised by your lack of a link.
gfm7175
Mega MAGA
I'm excited to see the numbers too, but they don't come out until July 30th. That's the date that you're looking for re: initial Q2 GDP data.
gfm7175
Mega MAGA
These are 2024 numbers, not 2025. Q2 data for 2025 comes out on July 30th.
gfm7175
Mega MAGA
Yes, he's mistaken. He's quoting 2024 numbers instead of 2025.
Consumers, too.
gfm7175
Mega MAGA
This already happened in Q1 (Jan-Mar). This is the past. Now get yourself into the present.
Nothing stopped them from continuing.
Trump's tariffs are already imposed. They have been for numerous months now. Where do you think the BILLIONS of dollars of tariff revenue have been coming from?
trump plans his tariff beginning for a day or two later. The hope is that there will be good news on growth that will cloak the tariff news. It might just work, in the short term.
q2 will probably come in at 2.5%, which combined with -0.5% from q1, means the first half of the year will be at 1%(the average of the two quarters). Given the current situation, 1% is what passes as good news. Normally, 1% is bad.
There has been a lot of moving around business decisions to try to avoid trump's mercurial nature. That means that growth from one quarter is being moved to another. That 2.5% might be stolen from q3, in which case, we could be basically in a recession right now.
I believe we will hit a recession by November 2026, but I might be wrong. If I am wrong, it will be happening a bit later. If trump can keep everything going until after November 2026, he will have a better chance in the by elections.
It happened in q1, and it continued happening in q2. The current question is what companies and consumers will do as a reaction to trump's insanity in q3.
While he may chicken out, trump claims there are major tariffs coming on August 1st. There is hope based on taco(trump always chickens out), but he might not chicken out. So everyone is running around trying to figure out what trump will do in q3.
And then there is Xi. Xi is getting good at figuring out non-tariff tricks to get the USA. He is hoping to weaken the USA economically and easily take over Taiwan. Because it is complex, trump does not seem to have any way to deal with it.
There is only so much money and storage. They can only buy so much inventory, and store it. Consumers can only buy so many items early. I have two cell phones that I bought early, but have not yet taken out of their boxes. I am not going to buy two more until I at least use these two for a couple of years.
gfm7175
Mega MAGA
Trump's tariffs are already in effect. The beginning of August is when numerous countries will be facing rates that are above the baseline rate of 10%.
There will be good news (re: Q2 GDP). I already predicted as much back on April 30th.
I added this prediction of yours to my prediction thread about the Q2 GDP. Let's see in two weeks who is correct.
There is no "movement" or "[stealing]" of anything. I've already informed this board that Q1's topline GDP was artificially low due to a massive increase in imports. Q2's numbers will be "much higher than expected" (probably even from my very conservative guesstimate) due to a massive decrease in imports (as those "Q2 imports" actually happened in Q1).
There is no recession. The USA has now come out of the economic depression that was caused by Democrat dictates re: COVID during 2020 and continued all throughout the Autopen Regime.
This prediction is akin to a typical weatherman... "Ummmm, it might rain tomorrow or it might not... expect anywhere from 0-5 inches of rain".
gfm7175
Mega MAGA
Right.
Nope. The announced date for his "liberation day" tariffs was April 2nd, so companies would've been shooting to have their purchases done before April, which was entirely during Q1, and not during Q2.
They've already been making adjustments since Q1. They can see the writing on the wall (that they no longer have unfettered access to the USA consumer market unless they manufacture their products in the USA). The Q1 massive increase in imports was to gear up for that change and to make the transition to USA-based production smoother.
I thought that he ALWAYS "chickened out"?
Indeed he does.
This makes no sense (and is a paradox). Does he ALWAYS "chicken out" or does he not?
You don't speak for everyone. I'm not "running around trying to figure out" anything. I'm not indulging in fear porn like you are.
??????? Xi is currently shitting his pants that he no longer has unfettered access to the USA consumer market (and that he cannot get around it via transshipping).
Ergo, he was hoping that the Autopen Regime would get another term. Now he has to put that idea on pause until President Trump is out of office.
????
gfm7175
Mega MAGA
True.
TOO FUNNY! Besides losing a bunch of money due to your S&P 500 fear mongering, you're now unnecessarily paying too much for a couple of cell phones that will be plenty outdated by the time that you'll ever use them. I could actually use a new phone atm, but mine still works yet (and still keeps a charge decently). I'm not worried about "way more expensive phones".
And yet when Grokmaster wants to post great rates, he does not post the current rates, but rather the Biden rates. Simple fact is Biden did better than trump, so far.
I did not give trump the nickname taco, nor do I believe he always chickens out. Your "paradox" is that I have a different opinion than he prevalent in the market right now. This is the taco stock market, where I do not believe trump will always chicken out.
We already have higher tariffs than at the beginning of the Great Depression.
It must be nice to have faith.
I am still up for the year, so I am happy. And not up a little, but up a lot. I have lost money on the most recent investment, so far... But it still has a real possibility of coming back... And even if I lose everything on it, I still have a lot of money in standard investments.
The new iPhones get sold around November, and we wanted phones well before that, so they will not be outdated before we use them. The list price has not gone up since we bought them, but the discounts have gone down, so we actually saved a bit of money. The bigger concern was that we would end having to wait to get our phones with some sort of supply disruptions. This way we are locked in.
Ours are 4 and 5 years old, so that is getting a little long in the tooth. You should get a new cell phone now before there are supply chain issues.
China is cutting off America's access to rare-earth magnets, and trump is too confused to even realize it is happening.
gfm7175
Mega MAGA
In two weeks, he'll forget that he ever posted those piddly numbers.
At what?
May I apologize for the inaccurate date I posed in the OP . I used an AI summary for a source which implied it was current data. 
Let's say trump gets a 4% GDP for q2, then his growth first half of 2025 would be 1.75%. Remember Biden's first half of 2024 was 2.1%. And almost no one is saying 4% for trump.
To equal Biden, trump would have to get 4.7% GDP growth. A number that high would definitely be the economy overheating with inflation. It would be a very bad number.
What you are looking for is long term growth. If trump has a good 2026, that would be wonderful for you. You have to accept 2025 will not be that great.