China seems to be on an unstoppable track to being the world #1 super power and it because they have deliberately chosen an Authoritarian path based on what of the biggest legs of populism which is ensuring the MC and below share in the bulk of GDP gains, causing a spiral of wealth accumulation.
As the MC get ever richer the GDP goes ever up, meaning the country as a whole gets ever stronger.
Trump and Putin would take that system and comb so much out to make a selective few richer in the short term that they would not see how that made not just the country but also themselves poorer in the long term. Now they would just argue, just give me all the money now and let me invest it, as i do not care about the long term for the country.
It is an argument I realize, is a divergence but is one i am fascinated with. Arguably had Putin really doubled down on the prior reforms, even if he shifted to a more China based system, i believe Russia, long term, and would have rivaled CHina and the US as a world power. That Russia was uniquely positioned to be the true 'Bridge between Asia and Europe and America' being a mid point for giant Tech companies to set up their second biggest offices competing for a portion of the talent coming out of India and China, etc. I think with the storied history of Moscow and the Country, and true stability and reforms, they could have easily become that.
China has engineered a middle-class boom that turbocharged growth, but it is not “the bulk” of gains going to MC/below.
Inequality has risen sharply, and the state now tightens that spiral via “common prosperity.” Trump and Putin do favor elites, but you overstate both the scale of elite capture and the long-term self-harm.
China’s middle class grew from roughly 3% of the population in 2000 to about 40% (400 million people) by 2025, according to McKinsey.
Urban disposable income rose 15 times since 1990. This expansion is real and massive. However, the top 10% captured around 40% of income growth from 2010 to 2020, per the World Inequality Database.
China’s Gini coefficient went from 0.38 to 0.47, then back to about 0.43 under Xi’s crackdown. This shows inequality increased sharply before being reined in, not that the middle class and below got the majority of gains.
Consumption remains at 38% of GDP (versus 68% in the U.S.), meaning investment and property dominate the economy.
The key driver was state-led industrialization, urbanization, and hukou reform, not populism.
The CCP allowed inequality to rise to spur growth, then curbed it starting in 2021 with tech crackdowns (Alibaba and Tencent lost $1.5 trillion in value), property caps (Evergrande collapse), and “common prosperity” taxes on billionaires.
The result: growth slowed from 10% to around 4.5% in 2025. The “spiral” is real but fragile. Youth unemployment is at 18%, the property sector is crashing, and an aging population threatens sustainability.
The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act gave 83% of benefits to the top 1% by 2027, per the Tax Policy Center.
Top firms did $839 billion in stock buybacks. Deficits rose by $8 trillion, and infrastructure lagged.
Still, GDP grew 2.3% on average pre-COVID, and the stock market rose 70%. Trump's wealth is tied to markets, so elite gains helped him short-term, but there’s no clear self-harm.
Russian oligarchs control 20% of GDP, and the top 1% income share reached 25%, per Novokmet. Sanctions cost over $1 trillion in lost growth. Russia’s economy is now smaller than the USSR’s was in 1990 in PPP terms, with brain drain and tech lag.
Here, personal wealth (estimated $200 billion) is secure, but Russia is weaker than in 2013. This is long-term self-harm.