Teflon Don
I'm back baby
As you evaluate polls heading into the midterms here is some handy advice
Give more credence to Likely Voter models
Other models tend to over sample democrats and skew results
Give even more credence to polls that publish internals
Look for margin of error less than 3%. Higher MOE means more uncertainty
Look for the trend
In general if an incumbent is polling under 50% that is not a good sign. Especially a long time incumbent. Undecideds tend to break for the challenger.
Right now RCP average of generic ballot is 7 which is not indicative of a wave.
CNN has it at 13 which is a number you would need to see for dems to take back the House
Rasmussen has it tied and IBD has it at two
I think it is probably closer to IBD which would mean no blue wave.
Regardless get out and vote republican
We can deal a major blow to leftists
Give more credence to Likely Voter models
Other models tend to over sample democrats and skew results
Give even more credence to polls that publish internals
Look for margin of error less than 3%. Higher MOE means more uncertainty
Look for the trend
In general if an incumbent is polling under 50% that is not a good sign. Especially a long time incumbent. Undecideds tend to break for the challenger.
Right now RCP average of generic ballot is 7 which is not indicative of a wave.
CNN has it at 13 which is a number you would need to see for dems to take back the House
Rasmussen has it tied and IBD has it at two
I think it is probably closer to IBD which would mean no blue wave.
Regardless get out and vote republican
We can deal a major blow to leftists