APP - Advice on polls heading into midterms

Teflon Don

I'm back baby
As you evaluate polls heading into the midterms here is some handy advice

Give more credence to Likely Voter models

Other models tend to over sample democrats and skew results

Give even more credence to polls that publish internals

Look for margin of error less than 3%. Higher MOE means more uncertainty

Look for the trend

In general if an incumbent is polling under 50% that is not a good sign. Especially a long time incumbent. Undecideds tend to break for the challenger.

Right now RCP average of generic ballot is 7 which is not indicative of a wave.

CNN has it at 13 which is a number you would need to see for dems to take back the House

Rasmussen has it tied and IBD has it at two

I think it is probably closer to IBD which would mean no blue wave.

Regardless get out and vote republican

We can deal a major blow to leftists
 
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